Market Summary
Equities are mixed and off their best levels heading into midday Friday, with the major averages diverging as the market digests Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole Symposium. As of 12:05 ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 85.45 points (+0.16%) to 53,654.89, while the S&P 500 is down 5.22 points (-0.07%) to 7,725.77 and the Nasdaq Composite is off 79.29 points (-0.30%) to 26,483.11. The market has retreated from stronger midmorning gains — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up as much as 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively, around 11:05 ET — as semiconductor weakness intensified into midday.
The session’s dominant theme has been a stark divergence between mega-cap strength and semiconductor weakness. Non-semiconductor mega-caps, including Apple (+2.33%), Microsoft (+2.06%), Alphabet (+2.13%), and Amazon (+4.11%), have powered Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary sharply higher, catching up after lagging Thursday’s tech-led rally. Simultaneously, the PHLX Semiconductor Index has slid 3.5% as Marvell’s post-earnings drop (-10.21%) and continued weakness in NVIDIA (-3.17%) weigh on Information Technology (-0.9%).
Overlaying the equity action is a hawkish repricing in rates. Fed Chair Warsh reiterated that the Fed’s “predominant focus right now should be on prices” given inflation running above the 2% target, prompting the CME FedWatch tool to boost the probability of a 25-bp September rate hike to 57.5% from 35.4% a day earlier. Treasury yields backed up across the curve, particularly at the short end, pressuring rate-sensitive small- and mid-caps — the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap 400 are both down roughly 0.5%.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,654.89 | +85.45 | +0.16% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,483.11 | -79.29 | -0.30% |
| S&P 500 | 7,725.77 | -5.22 | -0.07% |
Breadth (NYSE): Advancers 1,251 | Decliners 1,341 | Volume 213.01 mln
Breadth (Nasdaq): Advancers 1,595 | Decliners 2,421 | Volume 4.54 bln
WaveFinder Market Breadth (2026-08-28):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish (Primary Bulls 1,019 | Bears 690)
- 4% Sentiment: Bearish (4% Bulls 41 | Bears 117)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 13%
- Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 45.8%
- 9-Month Bulls: 6 | Bears: 21
- 9-Month Bull Follow-Through: 9.8%
Breadth readings show a notable disconnect between headline sentiment (Very Bullish) and underlying technical positioning, with only 13% of stocks above their 20-day moving average and just 45.8% above their 40-day average — consistent with the narrow, mega-cap-led tape.
Sector Performance
Strong (per Briefing.com Industry Watch):
1. Communication Services — +2.3% (led by Alphabet, Amazon strength)
2. Consumer Discretionary — +2.0% (Amazon-led)
3. Consumer Staples — Strong (no specific % reported at midday)
4. Financials — Strong (no specific % reported at midday)
Weak (per Briefing.com Industry Watch):
5. Information Technology — -0.9% (semiconductor-led weakness)
6. Industrials — Weak (no specific % reported at midday)
7. Energy — Weak (no specific % reported at midday)
8. Materials — Weak (no specific % reported at midday)
Not specifically flagged in Industry Watch (Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate):
9. Health Care — Not listed as strong or weak today
10. Utilities — Not listed as strong or weak today
11. Real Estate — Not listed as strong or weak today
WaveFinder Sector ATR (Volatility, not performance):
| Sector | ATR | Trend | Percentile |
|—|—|—|—|
| Communication Services | 3.16% | Rising | P89 |
| Health Care | 2.62% | Flat | P47 |
| Energy | 2.09% | Falling | P53 |
| Financials | 1.05% | Rising | P42 |
| Materials | 0.82% | Flat | P5 |
| Consumer Staples | 0.35% | Flat | P21 |
| Technology | -0.95% | Flat | P37 |
| Real Estate | -1.10% | Flat | P0 |
| Industrials | -1.27% | Falling | P0 |
| Utilities | -2.31% | Falling | P5 |
| Consumer Discretionary | -0.25% | Flat | P5 |
Key Earnings & Movers
Today’s Session:
- Marvell (MRVL) 216.80, -24.65 (-10.21%) — Worst S&P 500 performer despite record Q2 revenue of $2.74 bln (+36.5% yr/yr) and above-consensus Q3 guidance; raised FY27 revenue outlook to $12 bln and FY28 to $18 bln.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) 220.76, -7.22 (-3.17%) — Giving back some of Thursday’s earnings-driven gains amid broad semiconductor pressure.
- Apple (AAPL) 321.92, +7.34 (+2.33%) — Leading mega-cap strength.
- Microsoft (MSFT) 515.48, +10.42 (+2.06%) — Contributing to Information Technology’s partial offset against semiconductor weakness.
- Alphabet (GOOG) 344.92, +7.21 (+2.13%) — Leading Communication Services higher.
- Amazon (AMZN) 266.80, +10.54 (+4.11%) — Leading Consumer Discretionary gains.
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) — Trading lower despite a beat-and-raise Q2 (EPS $6.55, revenue $3.04 bln, +8.9% yr/yr, comps +3.8%), as a measured back-half outlook (FY27 EPS $28.70-29.00) tempered enthusiasm.
Premarket Movers (per Page One):
- Elastic (ESTC) +25%, Gap (GAP) +18%, Affirm (AFRM) +11% on earnings beats.
- Marvell (MRVL) -8%, Rubrik (RBRK) -5%, Autodesk (ADSK) -4% on earnings reactions.
Prior Session (Thursday, 27-Aug) Notable Movers:
- NVIDIA (NVDA) 227.91, +18.25 (+8.70%); Salesforce (CRM) 252.10, +46.48 (+22.60%); CrowdStrike (CRWD) 227.96, +38.78 (+20.50%); Hormel Foods (HRL) 21.28, -2.44 (-10.27%); Moderna (MRNA) 142.77, -6.89 (-4.60%); Best Buy (BBY) 83.58, -3.86 (-4.41%); Burlington Stores (BURL) 289.89, -24.10 (-7.68%).
Stock Spotlight
Marvell Technology (MRVL) is the session’s most significant mover, sliding 10.21% to $216.80 despite what Briefing.com characterizes as an unambiguously strong quarter. Q2 (Jul) revenue grew 36.5% yr/yr to a record $2.74 billion, and Q3 guidance came in above consensus at the midpoint. Data Center revenue — the core of the AI infrastructure story — grew 46% yr/yr and 18% sequentially to $2.17 billion, with Q3 guidance calling for 75% yr/yr growth and more than 20% sequential growth, driven by broad-based strength across interconnect, switching, and custom silicon products.
The market’s negative reaction appears rooted in elevated expectations rather than deteriorating fundamentals. MRVL had rallied more than 40% since late July, and coming on the heels of NVIDIA’s strong quarter earlier in the week, investors wanted a clearer beat-and-raise. EPS upside was modest, and non-GAAP gross margin — while slightly above the midpoint of prior guidance at 58.9% in Q2 — is expected to contract to 57.5-58.5% in Q3 as the Custom business ramp creates near-term mix pressure. Importantly, management raised its longer-term targets materially: FY27 revenue guidance moved to $12 billion (+45%) from $11.5 billion, and FY28 guidance rose to $18 billion (+50%) from $16.5 billion (+45%), reinforcing the bullish multi-year AI infrastructure narrative even as the stock digests near-term profit-taking. The broader PHLX Semiconductor Index is down 3.5% on the session, partly in sympathy.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries are trading on session lows following Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole address, with the short end leading the decline. As of the 10:36 ET update:
- 2-yr: 4.29%, +6 bps
- 3-yr: 4.35%, +5 bps
- 5-yr: 4.44%, +4 bps
- 10-yr: 4.69% (-10/32 price), +1 bp
- 30-yr: 5.18%, -1 bp
Yields initially rallied (prices up) in immediate reaction to Warsh’s remarks before reversing sharply to lows, paced by the short end. Warsh reiterated his intent to run a “quieter Fed” while expressing confidence in the economy’s resilience, citing strong business spending (roughly half tied to the AI buildout) and healthy profit growth, and noted that credit and loan markets are not being restrained by policy. He emphasized commitment to “a discipline rather than to a decision,” avoiding explicit forward guidance. The repricing follows his broader message that inflation — with core PCE at 3.7% on a 12-month basis and 4.1% on a six-month basis — remains the Fed’s predominant concern, pushing September rate-hike odds to 57.5% from 35.4% a day earlier.
USD/JPY: 159.88 | EUR/USD: 1.1610
Commodities
(Most recent data reflects Thursday, 27-Aug close; no updated midday figures provided.)
- Crude Oil (WTI): $83.61/bbl, +$1.36 (+1.7%) — rallied late Thursday on reports the White House has no intention of returning to the terms of the June MOU with Iran.
- Natural Gas: $2.91, +$0.04
- Gold: $4,664.30/oz, +$17.20
- Silver: $69.46/oz, +$1.46
- Copper: $6.69/lb, +$0.09
Overseas Markets
Europe (Thursday, 27-Aug close): DAX +0.3%, FTSE -0.8%, CAC -1.7%. Weakness in France weighed on the region after Q2 GDP was revised down to reflect a standstill (unch. qtr/qtr vs. +0.2% expected) while inflation remained elevated (August CPI +0.7% m/m, +2.4% yr/yr).
Asia (Thursday, 27-Aug close): Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Shanghai +1.1%.
Overnight developments: JGBs faced pressure following a weak 2-yr JGB auction. European sovereign debt was on the defensive after France’s downward GDP revision and hotter-than-expected Spanish inflation (August CPI +0.7% m/m, +4.3% yr/yr). S&P affirmed China’s A+ sovereign rating with a Stable outlook. Japan’s PM Takaichi confirmed cabinet changes planned for mid-September. Japan’s August Tokyo CPI rose 1.9% yr/yr (prior 1.8%) with Tokyo Core CPI up 1.8% as expected; July Unemployment Rate fell to 2.4% from 2.5%. Eurozone’s August Business and Consumer Survey rose to 98.4 from 97.1, beating the 97.5 consensus.
Economic Data
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August, Final): 51.7 (Briefing.com consensus: 51.0), up from the preliminary 51.0 reading but down from July’s final of 55.2 and well below the year-ago level of 58.2. Key takeaway: persistent inflation concerns continue to undercut consumer sentiment.
- Chicago PMI (August): Scheduled for release (Briefing.com consensus 57.0; prior 57.6) — result not yet reflected in available data.
- Weekly Initial Claims (prior session, reported Thursday): 203K (Briefing.com consensus 210K); prior week revised to 207K from 206K. Continuing Claims: 1.778 mln; prior revised to 1.796 mln from 1.799 mln. Key takeaway: claims remain just above the 200K mark, showing little change in layoff activity.
Looking Ahead
With Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole address now behind the market, attention turns to how the shift in September rate-hike probabilities (57.5% vs. 35.4% a day earlier) filters through subsequent Fed commentary and incoming inflation data ahead of the next FOMC meeting. Semiconductor sentiment remains a key swing factor following divergent reactions to NVIDIA and Marvell earnings this week, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index down 3.5% today despite otherwise constructive AI infrastructure commentary from both companies. Investors will also continue monitoring the durability of mega-cap leadership in Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary versus the notable weakness in small- and mid-cap names (Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap 400 each down approximately 0.5%) as short-end yields adjust to the more hawkish rate outlook.