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Bullish Market Analysis

Market Summary — Midday — 2026-08-21

August 21, 2026 7 min read
Tickers Mentioned
Key Takeaways
  • equities are rallying at midday, clawing back a meaningful chunk of Thursday's steep losses
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average leads with a gain of 422.67 points (+0.80%) to 53,181.88, while the S&P 500 is up 46.22 points (+0.60%) to 7,687.38 and the Nasdaq Composite has added 157.83 points (+0.60%) to 26,246.03
  • All three major averages are sitting at or near session highs as of the 12:05 ET update, following a broad-based opening advance that built through the morning

Market Summary

U.S. equities are rallying at midday, clawing back a meaningful chunk of Thursday’s steep losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average leads with a gain of 422.67 points (+0.80%) to 53,181.88, while the S&P 500 is up 46.22 points (+0.60%) to 7,687.38 and the Nasdaq Composite has added 157.83 points (+0.60%) to 26,246.03. All three major averages are sitting at or near session highs as of the 12:05 ET update, following a broad-based opening advance that built through the morning.

The rebound is being driven by stabilizing Treasury yields and crude oil prices after yesterday’s surge in both, along with a resurgence in crypto-linked equities as Bitcoin extends its rally. Materials and financials are the standout sectors, powered by climbing precious metals prices and outperformance in banking names, while lingering weakness in information technology — particularly semiconductors, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index down roughly 1.1-1.2% — is capping gains at the index level. The Dow’s relatively light semiconductor exposure is helping it outperform its peers today.

Beneath the surface, breadth is constructive but not universally strong: NYSE advancers lead decliners 1,592 to 969, and Nasdaq advancers lead 2,640 to 1,464. Ross Stores is a standout post-earnings gainer following a beat-and-raise quarter, while Robinhood, Coinbase, Moderna, and Freeport-McMoRan are also among the day’s top performers, underscoring a market that is broadly “living to fight another day” after a rough start to the week that had left the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 1.9% and 2.5%, respectively, for the week entering today.

Market Snapshot

| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones | 53,181.88 | +422.67 | +0.80% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,246.03 | +157.83 | +0.60% |
| S&P 500 | 7,687.38 | +46.22 | +0.60% |

Breadth (as of midday):

  • NYSE: Advancers 1,592 | Decliners 969 | Volume 281.84 mln
  • Nasdaq: Advancers 2,640 | Decliners 1,464 | Volume 3.72 billion

WaveFinder Breadth Metrics:

  • Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish (Bulls 1,188 / Bears 747)
  • 4% Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 200 / Bears 29)
  • 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
  • % of Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 41%
  • % of Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 51.08%
  • 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 32 / 6 (Bull Follow-Through 25%)

Sector Performance

Ranked by available performance data and Briefing.com Industry Watch classification:

1. Materials +2.3% — Leading all sectors as precious metals prices continue to climb (ATR 1.92%, flat, P95)
2. Health Care +1.7% — Led by a sharp rebound in Moderna (ATR 3.74%, flat, P100)
3. Financials +0.9% — Boosted by strength in crypto-linked names (ATR 0.96%, falling, P26)
4. Communication Services — Classified Strong by Briefing Industry Watch (ATR 2.40%, rising, P100)
5. Consumer Discretionary — Classified Strong by Briefing Industry Watch (ATR 0.64%, falling, P47)
6. Industrials — Classified Strong by Briefing Industry Watch (ATR -0.41%, falling, P0)
7. Real Estate — Not separately flagged; roughly neutral (ATR -0.35%, flat, P21)
8. Consumer Staples — Not separately flagged in today’s commentary (ATR 0.86%, flat, P58)
9. Information Technology -0.1% to -0.3% — Weighed down by semiconductor weakness (ATR -1.00%, flat, P37)
10. Energy — Classified Weak by Briefing Industry Watch; crude modestly lower (ATR 3.57%, rising, P95)
11. Utilities — Classified Weak by Briefing Industry Watch (ATR -2.19%, flat, P0)

Key Earnings & Movers

  • Ross Stores (ROST) 239.95, +10.96 (+4.79%) — Strong beat-and-raise Q2 report; second consecutive double-digit comp (+10%), traffic-driven strength, raised FY27 EPS guidance to $8.61-$8.77
  • TJX Companies (TJX) 140.66, -0.04 (-0.02%) — Roughly flat; confirmed favorable off-price backdrop despite Marmaxx merchandise-mix issues
  • Robinhood Markets (HOOD) 106.15, +11.05 (+11.62%) — Riding continued Bitcoin surge
  • Coinbase Global (COIN) 187.99, +15.64 (+9.07%) — Crypto rally continuing into a second session
  • Moderna (MRNA) 147.35, +14.03 (+10.52%) — Rebounding after giving back part of Wednesday’s massive cancer-vaccine-driven rally
  • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) 76.91, +5.69 (+7.99%) — Benefiting from rising precious metals prices
  • Broadcom (AVGO) 367.47, +3.44 (+0.95%) — Higher on reports of a $60-$100 billion AI chip financing deal via special-purpose vehicle, reportedly benefiting Anthropic
  • AppLovin (APP) 303.11, -5.66 (-1.83%) — Among the day’s software laggards
  • Teradyne (TER) 370.44, -12.71 (-3.32%) — Weak semiconductor name dragging on tech
  • Boston Beer (SAM) — Trading lower after CFO Diego Reynoso announced departure effective September 14; CAO Matt Murphy to serve as interim CFO

Stock Spotlight

Ross Stores (ROST) is today’s most significant mover, surging 4.79% to $239.95 after delivering a beat-and-raise Q2 (July) report last night. Revenue climbed 13.3% year-over-year to $6.26 billion, and EPS of $2.66 topped expectations even after backing out an approximately $0.60 tariff-refund benefit. Comparable sales rose a robust 10%, well above the company’s 6-7% plan, marking a second consecutive quarter of double-digit comp growth that was primarily transaction-driven — reflecting broad-based customer gains across income and age groups rather than higher ticket sizes alone.

Margins expanded significantly, with gross margin up 625 bps and operating margin up 610 bps year-over-year (including a 405 bp tariff-refund benefit); even excluding that benefit, operating margin still expanded 205 bps on merchandise-margin gains and lower distribution costs. Management raised its back-half outlook despite increasingly difficult comparisons, guiding to Q3 comp growth of 6-7% and Q4 growth of 4-5%, and lifted its FY27 EPS guidance to $8.61-$8.77. The company also increased its FY27 store-opening plan to 115 locations from 110. The results stand in contrast to peer TJX, which is essentially flat today, and reinforce a favorable off-price retail backdrop as ROST continues to take market share.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries are under modest pressure at midday, giving back early gains. As of the 10:09 ET update, the 10-year note was down 3/32 with a yield of 4.716-4.72%, up 2 basis points on the day. Across the curve: the 2-year yield rose 2 bps to 4.21%, the 3-year rose 2 bps to 4.29%, the 5-year rose 2 bps to 4.40%, and the 30-year rose 2 bps to 5.26%.

The move reflects a partial reversal of Wednesday’s rate-relief trade, with the long bond fighting to hold above Thursday’s lows. Overnight, Treasuries had been on track for a slightly firmer start following strong flash PMI data out of Japan and the eurozone, but yields drifted higher as the U.S. session progressed. USD/JPY traded at 158.86 and EUR/USD at 1.1678 as of the 10:09 ET update.

Commodities

  • WTI Crude Oil: $86.61/bbl, -0.3% — Pressured after Bloomberg reported Iranian President Pezeshkian called for an end to the conflict with the U.S., pushing back against hardliners
  • Gold: $4,657.00/ozt, +1.9% — Continuing to climb, fueling strength in the materials sector
  • Copper: $6.614/lb, +2.3% — Tracking broader strength in precious/industrial metals
  • Silver: No intraday figure available; closed Thursday at $68.10 (+2.29)

Overseas Markets

Asia (Thursday’s close): Nikkei +1.4%, Hang Seng +0.8%, Shanghai +0.2%

Europe (Thursday’s close): DAX -0.3%, FTSE flat, CAC -0.6%

Overnight/Today’s Data: Flash August PMI readings were broadly encouraging. Japan’s flash Manufacturing PMI hit 55.1, marking an eighth consecutive month of expansion. The eurozone’s flash Manufacturing PMI reached 52.8, its fastest pace of expansion in over four years, while the eurozone flash Services PMI came in at 51.7. Germany’s flash Manufacturing PMI surged to 54.1 (expected 52.1) though its Services PMI slipped to 48.5. France’s flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 (expected 50.1). The U.K.’s July Retail Sales fell 0.5% m/m, missing the -0.4% consensus, with Core Retail Sales down 0.9% m/m.

Economic Data

Thursday’s releases (reviewed in After Hours report):

  • August Philadelphia Fed Index: 47.4 (Briefing.com consensus 25.0; prior 41.4) — Notable beat
  • Weekly Initial Claims: 206K (consensus 206K; prior revised to 212K from 209K)
  • Weekly Continuing Claims: 1.799 mln (prior revised to 1.781 mln from 1.777 mln)
  • July Leading Economic Index: +0.2% (consensus -0.1%; prior revised to -0.1% from -0.2%)

Takeaway: despite rising four-week moving averages for claims, overall levels remain benign and are not signaling elevated layoff activity.

Today’s scheduled data: Flash S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (prior 53.9) and flash S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (prior 54.6) were due at 9:45 ET; results were not available in this update.

Looking Ahead

  • Monday: Treasury Secretary Bessent is scheduled to hold a press conference to discuss additional economic measures against Iran, which he has described as potentially the “greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world”
  • Ongoing focus on U.S. Treasury’s liquidity-management efforts, including the recently expanded buyback program for longer-dated tenors
  • Markets will continue to monitor the U.S.-Iran situation for developments following Vice President Vance’s characterization of economic pressure efforts as a “delicate dance”
  • Continued attention on semiconductor-sector volatility and the broader AI financing landscape following Broadcom’s reported $60-$100 billion AI chip financing deal
  • Watch for follow-through in crypto-linked equities (Robinhood, Coinbase) tied to Bitcoin’s continued strength and the push for Congress to pass the CLARITY Act
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