Market Summary
U.S. equities are under broad-based pressure at midday, with all three major averages sitting near session lows as a fresh spike in oil prices and rising Treasury yields conspire to erase yesterday’s modest gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has shed 449.29 points (-0.84%) to 53,013.76, the Nasdaq Composite is off 232.59 points (-0.88%) to 26,119.53, and the S&P 500 is down 30.22 points (-0.39%) to 7,677.76. The pullback follows President Trump’s threat of “crippling” new economic sanctions against Iran, which has sent WTI crude surging as much as 2.4% intraday, undermining the relief that had come from Wednesday’s Treasury buyback announcement.
Retailers are the session’s most conspicuous laggards after disappointing forward guidance from Walmart (WMT) and a steep post-earnings selloff in Advance Auto Parts (AAP), dragging the consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors to the bottom of the sector leaderboard. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added to the risk-off tone by telling CNBC he will hold a press conference Monday to detail what he called potentially the “greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world” against Iran. Decliners are outpacing advancers by roughly 3-to-2 on the NYSE and better than 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq.
Beneath the headline weakness, there are pockets of resilience. Energy, real estate, utilities, and information technology are the only sectors holding gains at midday, with semiconductor stocks in particular clawing back off their worst levels — the PHLX Semiconductor Index has turned positive after two straight sharply lower sessions, led by outsized gains in Seagate Technology (STX) and Lumentum (LITE). Still, with seven of eleven sectors in the red and Treasury yields extending their climb after yesterday’s brief reprieve, the tape remains defensive heading into the afternoon.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,013.76 | -449.29 | -0.84% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,119.53 | -232.59 | -0.88% |
| S&P 500 | 7,677.76 | -30.22 | -0.39% |
Breadth (Briefing.com, midday):
- NYSE: Advancers 974 / Decliners 1,595 | Volume: 233.91 mln
- Nasdaq: Advancers 1,308 / Decliners 2,767 | Volume: 4.40 bln
WaveFinder Breadth Metrics:
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish | 4% Sentiment: Bearish | 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- Primary Bulls 1,156 / Bears 785
- 4% Bulls 84 / Bears 180
- Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 33%
- Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 50.51%
- 9-Month Bulls 15 / Bears 16 | Bull Follow-Through: 32.1%
Sector Performance
Strong (outperforming):
1. Energy
2. Real Estate
3. Utilities
4. Information Technology
Mixed / Not specified:
5. Financials
6. Materials
Weak (underperforming):
7. Industrials
8. Communication Services
9. Health Care
10. Consumer Staples
11. Consumer Discretionary
Volatility context (WaveFinder Sector ATR): Energy (+4.11%, rising, P100) and Health Care (+3.68%, flat, P100) are showing the largest volatility readings of any sector, while Communication Services (+2.03%, rising, P89) and Consumer Staples (+1.03%, flat, P84) also register elevated ranges — consistent with today’s earnings- and headline-driven moves in retail and health care names. Technology volatility remains comparatively contained (-1.14%, flat, P21) despite the sector’s outperformance.
Key Earnings & Movers
- Walmart (WMT) 103.63, -10.67 (-9.34%) — Beat on EPS and revenue (+5.9% yr/yr to $187.9 bln), but disappointing Q3 guidance ($0.62-0.64 EPS; +3.00-3.75% CC revenue growth) marks the third straight quarter of downside EPS guidance. Walmart US comps of +2.6% decelerated from +4.1% in Q1.
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) 43.20, -12.98 (-23.10%) — Adjusted EPS of $1.03 beat, aided by a $0.31 tariff-refund benefit, but comp sales fell -0.5% in Q2 versus +3.5% in Q1 as DIY demand weakened sharply late in the quarter. FY26 EPS outlook raised to $2.60-3.30 from $2.40-3.10.
- Moderna (MRNA) 143.23, -31.15 (-17.86%) — Largest single-stock decline today, though the pullback follows yesterday’s more-than-100% surge on positive cancer-vaccine data.
- Seagate Technology (STX) 860.98, +28.42 (+3.41%) — Among top S&P 500 performers as semiconductor/memory names rebound.
- Lumentum (LITE) 859.99, +32.39 (+3.91%) — Leading gainer in the electrical products/optical space amid the semiconductor bounce.
- Target (TGT) 159.17, +0.17 (+0.11%) — Holding modest gains after yesterday’s stronger earnings report, in contrast to Walmart’s weaker showing today.
Stock Spotlight
Walmart (WMT): Strong Headline, Weak Guidance Trigger 9%+ Selloff
Walmart shares are down roughly 9% at midday following a Q2 (July) report that beat on both the top and bottom lines but delivered a disappointing forward outlook. Revenue rose 5.9% year-over-year (+5.1% constant currency) to $187.9 billion, ahead of expectations, while adjusted EPS topped estimates. However, the Q3 (October) guidance of $0.62-0.64 EPS and +3.00-3.75% CC revenue growth represents a meaningful deceleration from Q2 levels and marks the third consecutive quarter in which Walmart has issued downside EPS guidance. Walmart US comparable sales (excluding fuel) rose just +2.6%, down from +4.1% in Q1 and +4.6% in Q4, with management citing weaker health and wellness sales and a 125-basis-point headwind from pharmacy deflation tied to new maximum fair price regulation.
The company continues to lean into price investment as a strategic lever, delivering more than 11,000 rollbacks in Q2 — up sharply from 7,200 at the end of Q1 — as management pointed to widening price gaps versus conventional grocers and continued market-share gains. Management also flagged incremental consumer pressure as gasoline prices moved above $4 per gallon, a dynamic that became more pronounced in June. Sam’s Club US comps (excl. fuel) improved to +4.4%, and international sales grew 12.8% yr/yr, though that too decelerated from +18.0% in Q1. The disconnect between a strong Q2 print and a soft Q3 outlook — coming one day after a stronger report from Target — is driving the market’s negative reaction, even as the underlying core business, per Briefing.com analysis, “remains healthy.”
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries have given back a significant portion of Tuesday’s rally, with yields near their highs of the morning as of the 10:01 ET update:
- 2-Yr Note: 4.20% (+2 bps)
- 3-Yr Note: 4.28% (+3 bps)
- 5-Yr Note: 4.39% (+4 bps)
- 10-Yr Note: 4.70% (+5 bps)
- 30-Yr Bond: 5.24% (+5 bps)
The move higher in yields comes as the 30-year yield returns to levels seen ahead of Wednesday’s Treasury buyback announcement, which had briefly fueled a rate-sensitive rally. Early selling in the 2-year note also lifted its yield back to its 50-day moving average (4.199%). Currency markets: USD/JPY 158.82, EUR/USD 1.1677.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $86.43/bbl, +$2.05 (+2.4%) — surging on President Trump’s threat of new sanctions against Iran and reports of a hijacked tanker in the Gulf of Aden; touched a four-week high near $89/bbl overnight.
- Gold: $4,540.10/ozt, -0.1% (overnight session)
- Silver: $65.83/ozt (prior session close, +$1.76)
- Copper: $6.433/lb, -0.9% (overnight session)
Overseas Markets
Asia: Overnight action saw a strong showing from Asian equity markets. (Prior session: Nikkei -3.2%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Shanghai -2.4%.) Japan’s July trade deficit came in at JPY634.5 bln, wider than the expected JPY680 bln deficit as exports rose 23.2% yr/yr and imports jumped 27.8% yr/yr. Hong Kong’s July CPI rose 1.7% yr/yr, in line with expectations, with unemployment steady at 3.7%. Australia’s July employment fell by 15,800 (vs. expected +11,700 gain) and the unemployment rate rose to 4.5% from 4.4%.
Europe: Overnight strength in Asia did not carry into the European session, where most major markets traded lower. (Prior session: DAX flat, FTSE +0.1%, CAC -0.1%.) Germany’s July PPI accelerated to +3.0% yr/yr (expected +2.7%) from +1.8%, while U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Orders improved to -25 from -45.
Policy Notes: The People’s Bank of China held its one- and five-year loan prime rates at 3.00%/3.50%; Sweden’s Riksbank held its policy rate at 1.75% but signaled a likely hike later in the year; Bank Indonesia held its rate at 5.75%, as expected.
Economic Data
- Leading Economic Index (July): +0.2% (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) vs. an upwardly revised -0.1% (from -0.2%) in June — a modestly positive surprise.
- Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Aug. 15): 206,000 (consensus 206,000), down 6,000 from an upwardly revised 212,000 (from 209,000).
- Continuing Jobless Claims (week ending Aug. 8): 1.799 million, up 18,000 from an upwardly revised 1.781 million (from 1.777 million).
- Philadelphia Fed Survey (August): 47.4 (Briefing.com consensus 25.0), up from 41.4 in July — a notable upside surprise reflecting accelerating regional manufacturing activity.
Briefing.com’s takeaway: despite rising four-week moving averages for both initial and continuing claims, overall claims levels remain well within a range that does not signal a meaningful pickup in layoff activity.
Looking Ahead
- Monday: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will hold a press conference to detail additional coordinated economic sanctions against Iran, which he described as potentially the “greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world.” Treasury buyback activity (potentially exceeding the $4 billion announced Wednesday) also remains in focus.
- Later Today (10:30 ET): Weekly natural gas inventories (prior reading: +36 bcf).
- Ongoing Watch Items: Continued volatility in oil prices tied to Iran sanctions risk and Gulf of Aden shipping disruptions; direction of Treasury yields following this week’s whipsaw between the buyback-driven rally and today’s reversal; semiconductor sector stabilization following recent sharp declines; retail sector earnings reactions (WMT, AAP, TGT) as a read on consumer health amid rising fuel prices.