Back to Insights
Swing Idea

Continuation Breakout Wednesday 4PM 10/01/2025

October 1, 2025 5 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (EST range reviewed: 2025-10-01, 13:30–16:00)
Note: The data provided covers late-session 30‑minute bars for 2025-10-01. The commentary below emphasizes this intraday action and recent leadership/flow patterns observed into the close, which often drive 1–3 day momentum follow-through.

  • Semiconductors and memory/storage led into the close on rising volume: AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, TSM, TER, AEIS, WDC, STX pushed higher with volume building in the last hour. Notably:
    • AMAT and LRCX printed higher highs late with expanding volume.
    • WDC and STX advanced steadily and closed near highs, showing accumulation.
  • Cybersecurity/software showed strong bid into the bell: CRWD, ZS, CYBR stair-stepped higher with expanding final-hour volume while QQQ was flat-to-slightly higher — relative strength within tech.
  • Data center/infrastructure and electrification mixed but selective momentum strong:
    • APLD, VRT closed firm; APLD had a high-volume breakout late day.
    • Industrial contractors/builders (PRIM, PWR, STRL, EME, FIX, CAT, CMI) were mixed to slightly soft late, suggesting rotation within industrials.
  • Energy storage/battery and speculative tech saw squeeze-y, high-volume pushes: AMPX, EOSE, QS, DPRO, PDYN advanced with clear late-day momentum and elevated liquidity — classic short-term swing candidates.
  • Health care mixed:
    • Managed care (UNH, ELV) edged up late with orderly volume.
    • Large-cap biopharma (REGN, AMGN) faded into the close; NTRA softened as well.
  • Consumer discretionary was mostly muted: ULTA, FIVE held ranges; TSLA chopped and faded slightly.

Noticeable patterns

  • Broad tech outperformance into the close led by semis (AMAT, LRCX, WDC, STX, KLAC) and cyber (CRWD, ZS, CYBR).
  • High-volume late-day expansions in select momentum small/mid caps (AMPX, APLD, EOSE, QS, DPRO) — a setup that often gets 1–2 additional days of follow-through if the open holds prior breakout bases.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)
Likely to trend up

  • AMPX, APLD, EOSE, QS, AMAT, LRCX, CRWD, STX

Strongest bullish signals

  • AMPX, APLD: explosive late-day volume and closes near HOD.
  • CRWD: closed essentially at HOD with strong final-hour expansion and group strength (cyber).
  • AMAT/LRCX: semi equipment leadership with higher highs and strong close.

Individual Stock Analysis
Note: “Daily” support/resistance zones are approximated using obvious recent supply/demand from the provided session and round-number pivots, given limited multi-day data. ATR estimates use the session’s range as a proxy for 1-day potential.

1) AMPX

  • Bias: Bullish breakout continuation if pullbacks hold the breakout shelf.
  • Supports: 11.95 (close/pivot), 11.65–11.70 (15:00 pullback base), 11.40–11.45 (intraday shelf)
  • Resistances: 12.20 (HOD), 12.50 (round), 13.00 (psych)
  • Est. 1-day ATR: ~0.93
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Look for a morning retest of 11.95–12.00, then push 12.20/12.50. If 12.20 clears on volume, momentum can carry toward 12.90–13.20 within 1–3 days.
  • Swing targets (1–3 days): 12.20, 12.90, 13.20
  • Entry ideas: 11.95–12.05 retest, or 12.22–12.25 break with >VWAP volume.
  • Stop-loss: 11.60 (beneath shelf); conservative 11.40.
finviz dynamic chart for AMPX

2) APLD

  • Bias: High-volume breakout; potential continuation above 25.05.
  • Supports: 24.40–24.60 (breakout base), 24.00, 23.55–23.60 (prior consolidation)
  • Resistances: 25.05 (HOD), 25.50, 26.20
  • Est. 1-day ATR: ~1.89
  • 30-min outlook: Early dip to 24.40–24.60 likely gets bought; reclaim over 25.05 opens 25.50 then 26.20.
  • Swing targets: 25.50, 26.20, 27.00
  • Entry ideas: 24.45–24.65 on hold, or 25.10–25.15 breakout with volume.
  • Stop-loss: 23.95 (beneath whole-dollar and base); aggressive traders can use 23.55.
finviz dynamic chart for APLD

3) EOSE

  • Bias: Momentum continuation if 12.00–12.20 holds.
  • Supports: 12.20–12.25 (close shelf), 12.00, 11.83–11.85 (intraday demand)
  • Resistances: 12.40 (HOD), 12.75, 13.00
  • Est. 1-day ATR: ~0.65
  • 30-min outlook: Consolidation above 12.00, then probe 12.40; a clean break targets 12.75/13.00.
  • Swing targets: 12.75, 13.00, 13.40
  • Entry ideas: 12.05–12.20 pullback hold; or 12.42–12.45 break with expanding volume.
  • Stop-loss: 11.80 (below demand and round).
finviz dynamic chart for EOSE

4) QS

  • Bias: Late-day momentum; watch 14.40–14.50 as the key higher-low zone.
  • Supports: 14.45–14.50 (breakout base), 14.25, 14.10 (LOD)
  • Resistances: 14.85 (HOD), 15.00, 15.40
  • Est. 1-day ATR: ~0.74
  • 30-min outlook: If 14.45–14.50 holds, look for 14.85 retest and 15.00 magnet. Above 15.00, momentum can extend toward 15.35–15.40.
  • Swing targets: 14.95, 15.35, 15.80
  • Entry ideas: 14.48–14.55 on hold; or 14.88–14.92 breakout with volume.
  • Stop-loss: 14.20 (beneath higher-low structure).
finviz dynamic chart for QS

5) AMAT

  • Bias: Semi leadership; strong close sets up continuation if 217 area holds.
  • Supports: 217.30–217.00 (late base), 216.00, 215.20 (intraday pivot)
  • Resistances: 218.44 (HOD), 220.00, 222.00
  • Est. 1-day ATR: ~4.8
  • 30-min outlook: Opening digestion above 217, then push 218.50–219.50. A strong tape could challenge 220–222 within 1–3 days.
  • Swing targets: 219.50, 221.50, 222.80
  • Entry ideas: 216.50–217.10 on hold; or 218.50 breakout with group strength (watch SOX/peers).
  • Stop-loss: 215.20 (beneath pivot); conservative 214.80.
finviz dynamic chart for AMAT

6) LRCX

  • Bias: Constructive higher highs; watch 141s as buy-the-dip zone.
  • Supports: 141.80–141.85 (late base), 141.00, 140.20
  • Resistances: 142.79–143.09 (close/HOD zone), 144.00, 145.50
  • Est. 1-day ATR: ~3.5
  • 30-min outlook: Hold above 141–142, then attempt 143+. A firm semis tape could accelerate to 144–145.5.
  • Swing targets: 143.10, 144.00, 145.50
  • Entry ideas: 141.20–141.90 reclaim; or 143.10 breakout with volume.
  • Stop-loss: 140.20.
finviz dynamic chart for LRCX

7) CRWD

  • Bias: Very strong close near HOD with expanding volume; leaders usually follow through 1–2 days.
  • Supports: 497.20–497.25, 495.10, 493.90 (intraday higher low)
  • Resistances: 500.84 (HOD), 505.00, 510.00
  • Est. 1-day ATR: ~10.1
  • 30-min outlook: Early probe of 498–499 then a push through 501–502. Above 505, momentum can carry toward 508–510.
  • Swing targets: 501–505, 508–510
  • Entry ideas: 496.5–497.5 on hold; or 501.00–501.50 breakout with uptick in vol.
  • Stop-loss: 493.80 (below intraday pivot).
finviz dynamic chart for CRWD

8) STX

  • Bias: Persistent ramp, close near highs; memory/storage bid strong.
  • Supports: 256.37, 255.43, 253.26
  • Resistances: 258.40 (HOD), 260.00, 262.50
  • Est. 1-day ATR: ~6.5
  • 30-min outlook: Small dip to 256–256.5 likely defended; clear of 258.40 targets 260 then 261.8–262.5.
  • Swing targets: 259.9–260.0, 261.8, 263.5
  • Entry ideas: 255.8–256.4 on hold; or 258.50 breakout.
  • Stop-loss: 254.70 (beneath last higher low) or 253.20 for wider risk.
finviz dynamic chart for STX

Risk and execution notes

  • Many momentum names showed late-day volume expansions; gaps are likely. Plan entries around pullback-to-base levels rather than chasing extended opens.
  • For smaller caps (AMPX, APLD, EOSE, QS), slippage can be material on stops. Size down and honor stops below the nearest demand shelf.
  • Use group confirmation: For semis (AMAT, LRCX, STX), strength across peers increases odds of follow-through; for cyber (CRWD), watch ZS/CYBR.

If you want, I can refine support/resistance using full daily data and 10–30 day ATRs once that history is available.

Share:

Related Posts