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Swing Idea

Continuation Breakout Wednesday 12PM 12/31/2025

December 31, 2025 5 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (EST range analyzed)

  • Time window analyzed (EST): 2025-12-30 15:30 to 2025-12-31 12:00, using 30-minute bars from the dataset you provided. Note: The file does not include the past 10–30 days of daily candles, so longer-term levels are approximated from today’s intraday pivots and typical round-number reactions; validate on your daily chart.

  • Cross-sector tone from the basket:

    • Drones/Industrial Tech (UMAC, RCAT, ONDS): Clear leadership. All three posted range expansion with elevated volume and higher-low intraday structures. ONDS shows the cleanest opening drive + midday consolidation, RCAT an impulse + pullback (potential bull flag), and UMAC a strong open with orderly digestion.
    • Healthcare/Med-tech (OWLT, BFLY, NTRA): Constructive. OWLET showed a steady sequence of higher highs/higher lows and held gains; BFLY stair-stepped higher on moderate volume; NTRA was firm but lower-ATR, more suited to conservative swings.
    • Materials/Battery Metals (SGML, HYMC, EPOW): Mixed but leaning constructive. SGML had a controlled push and held mid-highs; HYMC recovered off the early dip; EPOW grinding higher on thin volume.
    • Consumer/Discretionary (BURL, ISPO): Split. BURL was firm with a midday push to HOD; ISPO was illiquid/tight and best avoided for momentum.
    • REIT/Infra (DBRG): Tight coil, low realized range; not a momentum vehicle in this window.
    • Financials OTC (FRFHF): Very illiquid with wide spreads; skip for short-term momentum.
  • Notable patterns:
    • Broad small-cap risk appetite evident in drones/industrial tech (UMAC, RCAT, ONDS) with strong first-hour thrusts followed by constructive consolidations.
    • Healthcare growth (OWLT, BFLY) displaying controlled climbs with shallow pullbacks—bullish continuation setups if volume returns on pushes.
    • Rotational bid into lithium/mining names is tentative; SGML stands out as the most technically clean among materials.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)

Likely upside continuation candidates (ranked by momentum quality and liquidity in this tape):
1) ONDS – Breakout + high relative volume + tight midday base. Strongest signal.
2) RCAT – Impulse to 8.24 followed by pullback holding 7.95–8.00; bull flag potential.
3) UMAC – Powerful open, higher low base near 12.75–12.90; looks ready to retest highs.
4) OWLT – Series of higher highs up to 16.92, contained pullbacks; continuation setup.
5) SGML – Controlled uptrend within 13.50–13.77; room to test 14.00 if buyers persist.
6) AMBR – Micro-cap breakout behavior; needs volume to sustain but structure is intact.

Strongest bullish signals: ONDS, RCAT, UMAC, OWLT.

Individual Stock Analysis (levels, plan, and 30-min based outlook)

ONDS
– Bias: Bullish continuation if 9.90 holds.
– Key support: 9.90 (midday shelf), 9.75 (breakout retest), 9.28 (opening low/demand).
– Key resistance: 10.06–10.25 (intraday supply band), 10.33 (HOD), 10.50 (round/extension).
– 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Expect a probe into 10.06–10.33. If volume > first-hour average, breakout toward 10.6–10.8; failure to clear 10.06 likely re-tests 9.90 then 9.75.
– 1–3 day targets: 10.33, 10.60, stretch 10.90–11.00 (using today’s ~1.0 range as a proxy ATR).
– Entries: Pullback buy 9.90–9.95; or momentum add on 10.10–10.15 reclaim with volume.
– Stops: Conservative 9.74 (below breakout), tighter 9.84 (below base).
– finviz dynamic chart for ONDS

RCAT
– Bias: Bull flag watch above 7.90–8.00.
– Key support: 7.95–7.98 (base), 7.90 (round), 7.66 (LOD/demand).
– Key resistance: 8.03–8.12 (supply band), 8.24 (HOD), 8.50 (extension/round).
– 30-min outlook: Push into 8.12–8.24, brief pullback, then attempt 8.35–8.50 if tape stays risk-on; loss of 7.90 likely tests 7.75–7.80.
– 1–3 day targets: 8.24, 8.40, stretch 8.60 (measured on ~0.6 morning range).
– Entries: 7.92–7.99 base entries; or 8.13–8.16 through flag top on volume.
– Stops: 7.75 hard stop; tactical stop 7.88 if buying the base.
– finviz dynamic chart for RCAT

UMAC
– Bias: Constructive after strong open; buyers defending 12.75–12.90.
– Key support: 12.75–12.80 (higher-low shelf), 12.61 (morning pivot), 11.95 (LOD/major demand).
– Key resistance: 13.08–13.16 (HOD band/supply), 13.40 (round), 13.75 (extension).
– 30-min outlook: Retest 13.08–13.16; breakout targets 13.40 then 13.60–13.75. Lose 12.75 and a deeper check to 12.60 is likely.
– 1–3 day targets: 13.15, 13.40, stretch 13.70–13.80.
– Entries: 12.78–12.88 pullbacks; or 13.10–13.18 breakout adds with rising volume.
– Stops: 12.59 (beneath pivot), tighter 12.72 if scaling in at the shelf.
– finviz dynamic chart for UMAC

OWLT
– Bias: Uptrend with higher highs; shallow dips being bought.
– Key support: 16.62–16.66 (intraday demand), 16.35, 16.18 (session low zone).
– Key resistance: 16.87–16.92 (HOD band), 17.00 (round/psych), 17.20–17.30 (extension supply).
– 30-min outlook: Early test of 16.90–17.00; breakout targets 17.20 then 17.45; failure to clear 16.90 likely backfills 16.60s.
– 1–3 day targets: 16.92, 17.20, stretch 17.45–17.60.
– Entries: 16.60–16.70 pullback buy; or 16.95–17.02 momentum add on clean break.
– Stops: 16.30 swing stop; tactical 16.48 under last higher low.
– finviz dynamic chart for OWLT

SGML
– Bias: Steady grind higher; needs push through 13.74–13.77.
– Key support: 13.50 (pivot), 13.46 (midday low), 13.17 (LOD/major demand).
– Key resistance: 13.74–13.77 (HOD supply), 13.95–14.00 (round), 14.20 (extension).
– 30-min outlook: If 13.50 holds, expect a measured push to 13.74–13.95; breakout opens 14.00–14.20; loss of 13.46 invites a 13.30–13.35 check.
– 1–3 day targets: 13.75, 13.95, stretch 14.20.
– Entries: 13.50–13.56 pullbacks; or 13.78–13.82 breakout entries with volume confirmation.
– Stops: 13.39 swing stop; tighter 13.46 if buying the pivot.
– finviz dynamic chart for SGML

AMBR
– Bias: Micro-cap breakout behavior; watch volume continuation.
– Key support: 1.73–1.75 (midday shelf), 1.70 (round), 1.62 (session low/demand).
– Key resistance: 1.79–1.81 (HOD band), 1.88–1.90 (extension supply), 1.95–2.00 (round/overhead).
– 30-min outlook: Test 1.79–1.81; on expansion volume, extension to 1.88–1.90; failure likely mean reversion to 1.73–1.75.
– 1–3 day targets: 1.80, 1.88, stretch 1.95–2.00.
– Entries: 1.73–1.76 pullbacks; or 1.81–1.83 breakout if volume > morning pace.
– Stops: 1.69 (beneath shelf), tighter 1.72 if scaling.
– finviz dynamic chart for AMBR

Additional quick reads

  • BFLY: Gradual stair-step higher within 3.83–3.93. If 3.87–3.89 holds, can tag 3.93–3.98; below 3.87 risks 3.85/3.83 checks.
  • BURL: Firm retail tape. Support 289.7–290.1; resistance 291.2 then 293. Low ATR; better for conservative swings.
  • HYMC: Gold miner had early dip and recovery. Needs 24.10–24.30 to hold to attempt 24.50–24.70. Below 23.80 opens 23.50 retest.
  • DBRG: Very tight 15.28–15.32 box; not ideal for 1–3 day momentum.
  • ISPO, FRFHF, MAAS, EPOW: Either illiquid, very tight, or wide-spread OTC. Avoid for short-term momentum unless liquidity improves.

Notes on data coverage

  • The dataset provided covers the morning session of 2025-12-31 (plus one 12-30 bar for ISPO). Without the last 10–30 daily candles, higher-timeframe support/resistance and ATR-based targets are inferred from intraday structure and round-number confluence. Before executing, confirm these zones on your daily chart and adjust position sizing to liquidity.
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