Continuation Breakout Wednesday 12PM 10/01/2025

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (window analyzed: 2025-10-01 10:00–12:00 ET, intraday 30‑min bars)
Note: You provided only the Oct 1 intraday window; I emphasize the most recent behavior and relative strength vs QQQ during this period as a proxy for short-term momentum. Validate the zones below against your daily chart for 10–30 day context.

• Broad market: QQQ drifted higher all morning (600.1 → 601.6) with steady volume — risk-on tone favoring momentum continuation.
• Semiconductors and semicap equipment led: TSM, ASML, AMAT, KLAC, WDC stair-stepped to session highs into midday; LITE and SKYT followed. This is the clearest group trend (higher highs/lows, volume supported on pushes).
• Software/cloud mixed but constructive: SNOW stair-stepped higher; PLTR held near flat after early strength; CRWD chopped near highs; CDNS faded slightly but held range. AAPL was flat-to-slightly up.
• EV/energy storage strong beta: QS gapped and held gains; AMPX trend day up; NRGV and STEM grinded upward with higher lows; TSLA ran early, then based tightly.
• Defense/industrials firm: AVAV trended cleanly to new intraday highs; AGX, FIX up modestly; RACE flat; CRH flat.
• Healthcare bifurcated: Large-cap AMGN/REGN pushed early then digested; small-cap biotech (APLT, BCAB, PT, ADVM, TENX, GLUE) generally faded as volume rotated out — risk appetite favored quality/liquid tech over micro-cap biotech today.
• Materials: LEU pushed to highs; precious metals miner SBSW trended down.

Noticeable patterns

• Group leadership: Semis/semi-cap (TSM, ASML, AMAT, KLAC, WDC, LITE) show the cleanest continuation structure for 1–3 day momentum. Energy storage/battery (QS, AMPX, NRGV, STEM) shows high-beta follow-through potential. Defense (AVAV) in grind-up mode.
• Underperformance: Small-cap biotech liquidation/offerings risk; SION and SBSW trended lower — avoid for long momentum until they reclaim intraday resistance.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)
Likely upside continuation (strongest bullish signals first): TSM, ASML, WDC, AVAV, LITE, QS, SYM

• Rationale: Each printed higher highs into midday, held pullbacks above rising intraday supports, and showed relative strength vs QQQ. Liquidity is ample for clean 30‑min continuation.

Secondary watch for longs on dips: AMAT, KLAC, AMPX, LEU, NRGV, STEM, SNOW

Individual Stock Analysis (setups, key levels, entries, stops, targets)
Always confirm the intraday levels below with your daily chart to align with obvious daily supply/demand zones. Targets are placed near intraday resistance clusters and logical whole-number extensions that typically approximate 1–2 days of range for these names.

1) TSM

• Why bullish: Strong, orderly 30‑min uptrend; making new session highs into midday with higher lows; semis leading.
• Key support (demand): S1 286.65; S2 285.02; S3 284.08
• Key resistance (supply): R1 287.88 (intraday high); R2 288.50 (psych/round just above R1); R3 290.00
• Next 2–3 day price action: Looking for flag continuation. Hold above 286.6–287.0 → push through 287.9–288.5 and probe 289.5–291.5. Loss of 285 could force a retest of 284–284.5 before another attempt.
• Entry ideas:

– Pullback buy 286.7–287.0 with strength on 30‑min candles.
– Momentum buy on breakout >287.9–288.0 with expanding 30‑min volume.

• Stop: Tight: 285.4; Wider swing: below 285.0 (or last strong 30‑min low).
• 1–3 day targets: T1 289.5; T2 291.5

2) ASML

• Why bullish: Semicap leader, clean series of higher highs/lows; pressing toward 1,000 round level.
• Key support: S1 991.36; S2 985.10; S3 981.79
• Key resistance: R1 994.79; R2 998.00; R3 1,000.00–1,003.00
• Next 2–3 day price action: Expect tests into 998–1,003 if 991–992 holds on dips. Failure back through 985 opens a 981–983 retest before a higher low setup.
• Entry ideas:

– Pullback buy 991–992 risk to 985.4.
– Breakout >994.8 toward 998–1,003 with increasing 30‑min volume.

• Stop: Below 985.4 (conservative), or 981.5 (looser).
• 1–3 day targets: T1 998–1,000; T2 1,006–1,012

3) WDC

• Why bullish: Storage/semi benefitting from group strength; pushed to new session highs then based above prior highs.
• Key support: S1 125.79; S2 124.03; S3 123.80
• Key resistance: R1 126.39; R2 127.00–127.50; R3 128.50
• Next 2–3 day price action: If price holds >125.8, look for grind through 126.4 and extension toward 127.5–128.5. Losing 125.8 invites a backfill toward 124.8–125.1.
• Entry ideas:

– Pullback buy 125.8–126.0 with reversal confirmation.
– Breakout >126.4 toward 127.5+.

• Stop: 124.70 (beneath structure).
• 1–3 day targets: T1 127.5; T2 129.0

4) AVAV

• Why bullish: Persistent trend up, higher highs through midday; defense bid intact.
• Key support: S1 337.00; S2 333.22; S3 330.96
• Key resistance: R1 340.57; R2 342.50; R3 345.00
• Next 2–3 day price action: Tight flag under 340.6 likely resolves higher if 337 holds; continuation toward 343–345. If 337 breaks, look for a higher low near 333–334 before another leg.
• Entry ideas:

– Pullback buy 337–338 with strength.
– Breakout >340.6 toward 343–345.

• Stop: 333.00 (below demand).
• 1–3 day targets: T1 343–345; T2 348–352

5) LITE

• Why bullish: Strong morning trend; optical/AI supplier often follows semi strength; holding upper third of range.
• Key support: S1 172.34; S2 171.46; S3 170.25
• Key resistance: R1 173.44; R2 175.00; R3 176.50–177.00
• Next 2–3 day price action: Favor continuation if price holds >172.3; a break over 173.4 sets 175, then 176.5–177. A loss of 171.4 likely retests 170.3.
• Entry ideas:

– Pullback buy 172.4–172.6.
– Breakout >173.5 with momentum.

• Stop: 170.80 (beneath S2/S3 cluster).
• 1–3 day targets: T1 174.8–175.5; T2 176.5–179.0

6) QS

• Why bullish: High-beta gap and hold; consistent higher lows post-gap; sector tailwind (EV/battery).
• Key support: S1 14.26; S2 14.12; S3 13.98
• Key resistance: R1 14.49; R2 14.59–14.63; R3 15.00
• Next 2–3 day price action: Holding above 14.20 favors retest of 14.60–14.63 and a run at 15.00. If it loses 14.12, expect a deeper fill to ~13.95 before buyers step in.
• Entry ideas:

– Pullback buy 14.20–14.30 risk to 13.95.
– Breakout >14.60 toward 15.00.

• Stop: 13.95 (beneath S3).
• 1–3 day targets: T1 14.90–15.00; T2 15.40–15.80

7) SYM

• Why bullish: Big morning expansion, then orderly digestion near highs with higher lows; automation theme bid.
• Key support: S1 57.58; S2 57.02; S3 54.65 (opening low)
• Key resistance: R1 58.49; R2 58.86 (session high); R3 59.50–60.00
• Next 2–3 day price action: Expect a coil under 58.9; hold above 57.6 and break 58.5–58.9 to target 59.6–60. If 57.6 fails, look for a retest of 57.0 then attempt to rebuild.
• Entry ideas:

– Pullback buy 57.8–58.0 against 57.58.
– Breakout >58.9 on rising 30‑min volume.

• Stop: 57.00 (beneath S2).
• 1–3 day targets: T1 59.6–60.0; T2 60.8–61.5

Notes and risk management

• The supports/resistances are derived from today’s 30‑min structure and logical psych levels; anchor them to your daily chart (prior swing highs/lows, gaps) for 10–30 day confirmation.
• For large caps (TSM/ASML/WDC/LITE), expect 1–2% typical 1–2 day moves when the group is leading; for high beta (QS/SYM/AVAV), 3–6% swings are common — size positions accordingly.
• Use breakout entries only with volume expanding on 30‑min bars vs prior two bars to reduce false breaks.