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Swing Idea

Continuation Breakout Tuesday 2PM 9/23/2025

September 23, 2025 5 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (EST range analyzed: 2025-09-23, 12:00–14:00 ET; with a few prints slightly outside that window)

  • Note on scope: You provided intraday 30-minute bars for a narrow slice of today; there isn’t full 30-day/10-day context. The commentary below emphasizes what today’s 30-minute structure implies for the next 1–3 days, using intraday supply/demand as proxies for daily zones.
  • Tech/Semis: Broad semis were soft-to-sideways with afternoon fades: MU (166.36 close of slice), LRCX (131.03), ASML (962.60), ACMR (39.18) all showed lower highs into 14:00. Software/Cyber mixed: ZS faded after a mid-day pop, APP chopped and slipped late. Standouts: AXON (held high ground after a morning thrust) and LIN (industrial gases, but trades like a high-quality compounder) both showed relative strength with closes near session highs.
  • Financials: Money-center and IBs saw distribution into the afternoon: AXP, GS, JPM, BX all put in lower highs/lows into 14:00, suggesting near-term supply and likely mean-reversion lower unless they reclaim VWAP/afternoon highs tomorrow.
  • Healthcare: Mixed but pockets of strength. UTHR reclaimed highs and closed strong; MCK/UNH were net weaker intraday, though ranges were controlled.
  • Industrials/Materials/Defense: CAT trended down; KTOS had a sharp dump into 13:30 and couldn’t fully reclaim; LIN outperformed with steady bid and a near-HOD close. CYD popped early but slipped into 14:00.
  • Consumer/Internet: MELI held a tight high-dollar range and defended 2,500; DASH was range-bound; BABA continued an afternoon drift lower.
  • Small-cap momentum/microcaps: Typical midday fade after morning squeezes: UAMY, MITQ, MFH, IMPP, XOS, OMH saw givebacks. A few held constructive afternoon bases (MITQ, PL, RAPP) where a clean, low-risk pivot could set up for a 1–3 day bounce if volume returns.

Notable intraday pattern today: repeated afternoon lower highs across cyclicals/financials/semis (supply into pops) while a few quality names closed near their highs (LIN, UTHR, AXON). For short-term swing momentum, favor relative strength names pressing highs or small-caps that based after an expansion candle.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)
Likely upside candidates (relative strength or constructive bases):

  • LIN, UTHR, AXON, MELI, PL, MITQ, RAPP

Strongest bullish signals today:

  • LIN: Higher lows, near-HOD close with steady bid.
  • UTHR: Reclaimed highs late; buyers active on dips.
  • AXON: Held elevated range; shallow pullbacks.
  • MELI: Defended 2,500 and absorbed dips.
  • MITQ: Expansion candle to 1.66 followed by orderly pullback/base above 1.50.
  • PL: Morning impulse above 12.00, orderly pullback holding 11.90.

Individual Stock Analysis (focus: likely to go up in 1–3 days)
Note: Support/resistance derived from today’s intraday supply/demand and nearby round pivots (stand-ins for daily zones given the data provided). ATR-based targets are approximations.

1) LIN

  • Supports: 478.40–478.95 (near 14:00 demand), 476.30 (midday pivot), 474.65–475.00 (session base)
  • Resistances: 479.17 (HOD), 480.00 (psych), 482.00 (extension)
  • Next 2–3 days (30-min read): Hold above 478.4 favors a push through 479.2 → 480.5 → 482. Pullbacks to 476.3 likely get bought if trend intact. Lose 474.6 and momentum fades.
  • Swing targets (1–3 days): 480.5, 482.0, stretch 484.0 (ATR-like +1–5 points)
  • Entries: 476.6–477.2 on dips; or 479.25–479.50 breakout retest
  • Stop: 474.40 (beneath session base)
  • finviz dynamic chart for LIN

2) UTHR

  • Supports: 431.00, 429.80–430.00, 428.00
  • Resistances: 432.18–432.50 (HOD zone), 433.50, 435.00
  • Next 2–3 days: Trend continuation if price holds 430–431; a push over 432.5 targets 433.5 then 435–436. Lose 429.8 and you risk a fade to 428.
  • Swing targets: 433.5, 435.7, stretch 438–440
  • Entries: 430.2–431.0 pullback buys; or 432.6 breakout with volume
  • Stop: 428.70 (below last buyers’ line)
  • finviz dynamic chart for UTHR

3) AXON

  • Supports: 784.00–784.50, 779.50–780.00, 776.80
  • Resistances: 786.85, 792.16, 800.00
  • Next 2–3 days: Coil under 786–787 sets up an expansion. Break/hold above 786.9 → 792 first, then 800. Lose 779.5 and you likely revisit 772–775 (prior demand).
  • Swing targets: 792, 800, stretch 810 (ATR-like +15–25)
  • Entries: 780–782 on dips; or 787–788 breakout continuation
  • Stop: 776.00 (beneath intraday demand)
  • finviz dynamic chart for AXON

4) MELI

  • Supports: 2,497–2,500, 2,485, 2,475
  • Resistances: 2,506.9, 2,516.7, 2,530
  • Next 2–3 days: Range trade remains favorable. Hold 2,497–2,500 and reclaim 2,506 → 2,516 test; acceptance over 2,516 opens 2,525–2,535. Lose 2,485 and you risk 2,468.
  • Swing targets: 2,516, 2,525, stretch 2,540–2,550
  • Entries: 2,498–2,501 on dips; or 2,507–2,510 breakout
  • Stop: 2,484
  • finviz dynamic chart for MELI

5) PL

  • Supports: 11.90, 11.78–11.80, 11.68–11.70
  • Resistances: 12.05–12.13, 12.25, 12.50
  • Next 2–3 days: Bull flag attempt. Hold 11.90 and push back above 12.05 → 12.25 first, then 12.50 if volume returns. Loss of 11.78 likely traps longs and retests 11.60s.
  • Swing targets: 12.25, 12.50, stretch 12.80 (ATR-like +0.5–0.9)
  • Entries: 11.88–11.95 on dips; or 12.06–12.10 breakout
  • Stop: 11.72
  • finviz dynamic chart for PL

6) MITQ (speculative small-cap)

  • Supports: 1.49–1.50, 1.44, 1.40
  • Resistances: 1.56, 1.60, 1.66 (session spike high)
  • Next 2–3 days: Look for a tight base above 1.50. Break/hold >1.56 → 1.60 → 1.66. Sustained bid >1.66 opens 1.75. Lose 1.44 and momentum setup is invalid.
  • Swing targets: 1.60, 1.66, stretch 1.75–1.80
  • Entries: 1.50–1.52 on dips; or 1.56–1.58 on breakout
  • Stop: 1.44
  • finviz dynamic chart for MITQ

7) RAPP

  • Supports: 27.40, 27.20, 26.98
  • Resistances: 27.58–27.60 (into the close), 27.92–27.94, 28.30–28.50
  • Next 2–3 days: Constructive higher-low base. Hold above 27.20 and reclaim 27.60 → 27.90s next; acceptance above 27.94 opens 28.30+. Break of 26.98 invalidates.
  • Swing targets: 27.95, 28.30, stretch 29.00
  • Entries: 27.25–27.40 on dips; or 27.62–27.70 breakout
  • Stop: 26.90
  • finviz dynamic chart for RAPP

Additional quick reads (not top picks, but watchlists)

  • CYD: Needs to reclaim 41.50; below 41 supply lingers.
  • ASML/LRCX/MU: Near-term mean reversion likely if they reclaim 14:00 highs tomorrow; otherwise risk another leg lower.
  • PSKY/KTOS/UAMY/MFH: Elevated volume but afternoon fades; only consider if they form tight bases and break prior highs with fresh volume.

Risk management and execution notes

  • Use staggered entries near support with partial size; add only on confirmation (break/hold above resistance on rising 30-min volume).
  • Place stops just beyond the nearest invalidation zone to avoid getting whipped by noise.
  • Scale targets: take a portion at the first resistance/target, trail the rest under higher lows or last 30-min swing low.

If you can share 30-day daily and 10-day intraday context next time, I’ll refine these levels to true daily supply/demand zones and size ATR targets precisely.

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