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Swing Idea

Continuation Breakout Tuesday 2PM 10/07/2025

October 7, 2025 5 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis

Datetime range analyzed (Eastern Time): 2025-10-07 from 11:30 to 14:00 ET, using the 30-minute bars you provided. Note: The dataset does not include the last 30 trading days, so the “past 30 days / recent 10 days” context below is inferred from today’s intraday behavior and typical momentum read-throughs, not full 30-day history.

  • Tech, Semis, Space/Comms showing risk-on tape: ARM (semis/IP), ASTS (satellite/space), APPS (adtech) and VERI (AI/data) had net bullish intraday structure. ARM built higher highs into 159s; ASTS exploded from 69s to mid-74s on expanding volume—clear leadership in high beta. APPS reclaimed 7.00 before a controlled pullback.
  • Defense/Aero firm: KTOS stair-stepped from ~101 to 103.5 and closed near 102.8 on healthy volume; buyers defended every dip >101.5.
  • Energy steady-to-firm: GPOR held a tight coil around 189–190; buyers defended 189 repeatedly, suggesting a potential continuation if energy bid persists.
  • Healthcare mixed/defensive: UNH and UHS were flat-to-soft, range-bound intraday with muted volume—no momentum edge.
  • Industrials/Heavy cap ex softer: URI bled from 992 to 985 with lower highs; POWL tight but illiquid midday; no chase-level momentum.
  • Consumer/Gaming/Payments mixed to heavy: TTWO chopped and faded marginally; MA leaned lower with supply near 583.
  • Micro/small-cap action bifurcated: HLP trended up through 1.50; TLSA ground higher above 2.10; TRON steady climb near 2.90. High-vol names like QMCO faded after a spike; BQ collapsed violently from 45 to 13—avoid long bias until it bases. GSIW churned in a wide microcap range but ended firm near 0.171.

Notable patterns:

  • Momentum breadth favored high beta tech/space (ASTS, ARM), niche defense (KTOS), and select small caps (APPS, TLSA, HLP).
  • Defensive, mega/large cap value and industrials lagged or chopped (UNH, UHS, MA, URI).
  • Liquidity clustered around leaders; failed spikes (QMCO, BQ) signal a two-way tape—momentum works, but late chasers get punished.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)

Most likely to rise:

  • ASTS, ARM, KTOS, APPS, TLSA, HLP

Strongest bullish signals today:

  • ASTS: explosive trend day with rising volume and shallow pullbacks.
  • ARM: higher highs/lows, held 158s after push to 159s.
  • KTOS: clean trend with buyers defending each level and a late-day consolidation under 103s.

Individual Stock Analysis

Method notes:

  • Support/resistance derived from today’s intraday pivots, round-number psychology, and visible supply/demand zones on the 30-min bars.
  • ATR-proxy for 1–3 day targets uses today’s intraday range when broader ATR is unavailable.

ASTS (AST SpaceMobile)

  • Supports: 73.50; 72.50; 70.50–70.80 zone
  • Resistances: 74.80 (session spike); 75.50; 77.00
  • 30-min outlook (next 2–3 days): Prefer buy-the-dip structure above 72.5. A hold >73.5 into the open favors a push to 74.8, then 75.5. Break-and-hold over 75.5 can extend to 77 on squeeze.
  • Swing targets (1–3 days): T1 74.80; T2 75.50–76.00; T3 77.00–78.00 (intraday range today ~5 points).
  • Entry ideas: 73.20–73.60 on a controlled pullback; add 72.60–72.80 if tested and held.
  • Stop-loss: Tight: 72.10. Roomier: 70.90 (below the 70.5–70.8 demand).
  • finviz dynamic chart for ASTS

KTOS (Kratos Defense)

  • Supports: 102.20–102.40; 101.30; 100.00
  • Resistances: 103.20–103.50; 104.00; 105.00
  • 30-min outlook: Consolidation under 103.5 looks constructive. A reclaim/hold >103.2 opens 104–105. Dips to 102.2–102.4 that hold should be bought for a rotation back to highs.
  • Swing targets (1–3 days): T1 103.50; T2 104.40; T3 105.80.
  • Entry ideas: 102.30–102.50 on dip holds; or momentum entry >103.20 on volume.
  • Stop-loss: 101.20 (beneath the intraday higher low); last-ditch 99.90.
  • finviz dynamic chart for KTOS

ARM (Arm Holdings)

  • Supports: 157.30–157.50; 156.00; 154.80
  • Resistances: 159.10–159.35; 160.00; 162.00
  • 30-min outlook: Strong trend with a healthy mid-afternoon pullback. Over 158.6–159, a quick tag of 160 is likely; sustained strength can press 162 in 1–3 days. If we dip, buyers should defend 157.3–157.5.
  • Swing targets (1–3 days): T1 160.00; T2 161.40–162.00; T3 164–165 if semis stay bid.
  • Entry ideas: 157.40–158.00 pullbacks; momentum add on 159.40–159.60 break with volume.
  • Stop-loss: 155.90; wider swing stop 154.60.
  • finviz dynamic chart for ARM

APPS (Digital Turbine)

  • Supports: 6.83–6.85; 6.75; 6.69
  • Resistances: 7.03–7.05; 7.20; 7.50
  • 30-min outlook: Reclaimed 7.00, then a benign pullback. A base over 6.85 sets up a re-test of 7.05, then a grind to 7.20. Clearance above 7.20 can squeeze to 7.50 in 1–3 days.
  • Swing targets (1–3 days): T1 7.05; T2 7.20; T3 7.45–7.50 (today’s range ~0.36).
  • Entry ideas: 6.83–6.90 pullback buy; breakout add >7.05 with rising volume.
  • Stop-loss: 6.72 (below VWAP shelf/LODs); swing stop 6.64.
  • finviz dynamic chart for APPS

TLSA (Tiziana Life Sciences)

  • Supports: 2.10; 2.00; 1.96
  • Resistances: 2.14; 2.20–2.22; 2.35
  • 30-min outlook: Steady grind higher with higher lows. Holding >2.10 favors a quick test of 2.14; through 2.14, momentum can tag 2.20–2.22. Any dip to 2.00 that gets absorbed is a low-risk reload.
  • Swing targets (1–3 days): T1 2.14; T2 2.22; T3 2.30–2.35.
  • Entry ideas: 2.06–2.10 first buy zone; breakout add >2.14.
  • Stop-loss: 1.98 (below the round number and LOD context).
  • finviz dynamic chart for TLSA

HLP (Hongli Group)

  • Supports: 1.48; 1.40; 1.36–1.38
  • Resistances: 1.50–1.53; 1.60; 1.75
  • 30-min outlook: Clean intraday uptrend with acceptance above 1.48–1.50. If 1.50 holds, expect retest of 1.53 and push to 1.60. Needs to hold 1.40 on any deeper dip to keep the structure intact.
  • Swing targets (1–3 days): T1 1.53; T2 1.60; T3 1.72–1.75.
  • Entry ideas: 1.44–1.48 pullback buy; momentum add on 1.53 break with volume.
  • Stop-loss: 1.39 (below demand shelf); wider swing stop 1.34.
  • finviz dynamic chart for HLP

Additional quick reads (not primary long setups)

  • GPOR: Tight coil 189–190; watch for 190.35+ breakout for 191.5–193 push; lose 188.9 and it likely reverts to 187s.
  • TTWO: Range-bound; needs 261+ for momentum; otherwise chop.
  • MA: Supply near 583; below 582 favors 580–579 tag.
  • URI: Lower highs; sub-986 opens 982–983.
  • UNH/UHS: Rangey; need catalysts and range expansion to matter.
  • POWL: Illiquid midday; wait for range break >315 or <312.
  • VERI: Slow grind; above 5.42 opens 5.55–5.70.
  • QMCO: Backside fade after spike; avoid longs until a higher low forms above 13.85.
  • BQ: Falling knife; no long until multi-hour base forms above 14.5.
  • GSIW: Microcap; only for specialists—0.171 breakout could tag 0.175–0.180, but liquidity risk is high.
  • TRON: Stable stair-step; over 2.90–2.93 can test 3.00; support 2.88/2.87.

Risk management notes

  • Many highlighted names are high beta or low float. Size down, use hard stops, and take profits into strength (scale at T1/T2).
  • If futures or sector ETFs gap against the setup, wait for first 30–60 minutes to confirm structure before entries.
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