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Continuation Breakout Tuesday 1PM 9/30/2025

September 30, 2025 4 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (EST window analyzed)

  • Data window analyzed (30-min bars provided): 2025-09-29 15:00 to 2025-09-30 14:00 ET. Note: The upload contains intraday snapshots for Sep 30 (and one print on Sep 29); 30-day/10-day statistics aren’t fully available from the file, so the read is momentum-focused on the provided tapes and prevailing sector relationships.

Sector/industry takeaways from the basket

  • Semiconductors and semi-cap equipment: Weak into early afternoon with distribution spikes around 13:00 ET. AMAT faded 207.7→203.9 on heavy 13:00 volume; MRVL rolled 83.45→82.39; ACMR bled into lows; LRCX stayed soft. ATEYY/ATOM flat-to-soft. Net: semi-complex under pressure (AMAT, MRVL, ACMR, LRCX).
  • AI/data center infrastructure and storage: Relative strength. VRT stair-stepped higher to 148.52 HOD, closing near highs; STX grinded 229.6→233.1 with persistent bids. Net: constructive (VRT, STX).
  • Cyber/software: Mixed. PLTR firmed after a 178.2 test, reclaiming 180s; CYBR drifted lower within a narrow range. Net: selective strength (PLTR > CYBR).
  • Defense/aerospace: Mixed. TDG trended down; AVAV soft; KTOS coiled and reclaimed 89.3-89.5; NOC firm near session highs. Net: skewed defensive strength (NOC), with KTOS a potential continuation if it clears 89.7.
  • Health care: Steady-to-positive. AMGN pushed to 281.9 with higher lows; HCA and UHS steady; HUM flat; ISRG range-bound. Net: large-cap pharma/managed care stable; AMGN leads.
  • Precious metals miners/ETFs: Broad midday fade. Levered ETFs (NUGT, JNUG, GDXU) and miners (AEM, EXK) slipped; FNV held better but also eased off highs. Net: metals complex consolidating/down intraday.
  • Industrials/financial services: ETN edged down; AJG flat. Net: neutral to mild risk-off there.

Notable patterns

  • Distribution in semis (AMAT/MRVL/ACMR) contrasted by accumulation in AI infra/storage (VRT/STX).
  • Metals complex synchronized pullback (AEM, EXK, NUGT/JNUG/GDXU), suggesting a near-term risk-on tilt or dollar bid.
  • Healthcare leadership pockets (AMGN) and defense resilience (NOC) offered low-beta balance.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)

  • Likely upside continuation candidates: AMGN, VRT, STX, PLTR, NOC, KTOS.
  • Strongest bullish signals: AMGN (higher highs + steady buy pressure), VRT (trend day near HOD), STX (persistent grind with higher lows), PLTR (reclaim of 180 after shakeout).

Individual Stock Analysis (levels, scenarios, entries, stops, targets)
Note on targets: Without full 14-day ATRs in the upload, I estimate short-term swing targets using nearby resistance plus 0.5x–1.0x of today’s observed intraday range as a proxy.

AMGN

  • Supports: 280.39; 279.56–279.41 zone; 277.06.
  • Resistances: 281.90–282.00; 282.34 (session high); 284.5–285.0 (extension).
  • 30-min read/next 2–3 days: Expect extension if price holds above 280.4 and clears 282.3; momentum could press into mid-284s, possibly 286–287 on follow-through.
  • Swing targets (1–3 days): 284.5 then 286.8–287.2 (≈0.5x–1.0x today’s range).
  • Entries: Pullbacks 280.6–281.0 or 279.8–280.2 if market stays firm.
  • Stop-loss: 278.9 (tight) or 277.0 (beneath session pivot low).
  • finviz dynamic chart for AMGN

VRT

  • Supports: 147.16; 147.49–147.69; 147.25.
  • Resistances: 148.52 (HOD); 149.50; 150.00.
  • 30-min read/next 2–3 days: Strong steady bid; a clean break/hold above 148.52 sets up 149.5 then a round-number test at 150.
  • Swing targets: 149.0–149.1 (0.5x day range), then 149.8–150.2.
  • Entries: 147.7–148.0 on dips; add on 148.55–148.7 breakout/hold.
  • Stop-loss: 146.9 (beneath structure); conservative 146.6.
  • finviz dynamic chart for VRT

STX

  • Supports: 231.20; 231.00; 229.61.
  • Resistances: 233.00–233.20; 234.80–235.00; 236.6.
  • 30-min read/next 2–3 days: Trend higher with shallow pullbacks; above 233.2 opens 235 then 236.5.
  • Swing targets: 234.8–235.0 first, 236.5–236.8 second.
  • Entries: 231.9–232.3 on dips; momentum add >233.25 with hold.
  • Stop-loss: 230.9 (tight) or 229.4 (below session low).
  • finviz dynamic chart for STX

PLTR

  • Supports: 180.01; 179.09; 178.22.
  • Resistances: 180.38–180.53; 180.79; 182.0–182.6.
  • 30-min read/next 2–3 days: Shakeout to 178.2 then reclaim; holding 180 should fuel a retest of 180.8 and a push toward low-182s.
  • Swing targets: 181.6–181.9, then 182.6–183.5 (0.5x–1.0x day range).
  • Entries: 179.4–179.8 pullbacks; breakout add above 180.8 with confirmation.
  • Stop-loss: 178.1 (beneath pivot); looser 177.7 if volatility expands.
  • finviz dynamic chart for PLTR

NOC

  • Supports: 603.27–603.28; 603.07; 601.96.
  • Resistances: 604.10; 604.99; 607.0–610.0.
  • 30-min read/next 2–3 days: Defensive leadership; a push through 605 with acceptance targets 607–610.
  • Swing targets: 605.6 then 607.1–608.8.
  • Entries: 603.3–603.7 buy-the-dip; confirm above 605 on volume.
  • Stop-loss: 601.8 (tight) or 600.9 (looser).
  • finviz dynamic chart for NOC

KTOS

  • Supports: 89.01–89.08; 88.74; 88.63.
  • Resistances: 89.39–89.50; 89.71; 90.5–91.3.
  • 30-min read/next 2–3 days: Coil and reclaim; a sustained move above 89.7 likely squeezes to 90.5–91.3.
  • Swing targets: 89.9–90.0 first, 90.5–91.3 second.
  • Entries: 89.0–89.2 pullbacks; add on 89.72–89.8 breakout/hold.
  • Stop-loss: 88.55 (below coil); alternate 88.30 if whipsaw risk.
  • finviz dynamic chart for KTOS

Context for non-inclusion today

  • Semi-cap (AMAT, MRVL, ACMR, LRCX): short-term selling pressure—prefer to wait for a base or reclaim of intraday supply.
  • Metals complex (AEM, EXK, NUGT/JNUG/GDXU): synchronized fade—watch for reversal candles before considering longs.
  • Others (TDG, AVAV, CYBR, ETN, AJG, HUM, ISRG): neutral-to-soft tapes; no clear 1–3 day momentum edge from the provided window.

If you’d like, share the full 30-day history and I’ll add quantified 30-day/10-day momentum, ATR, and rolling volume analytics to refine the targets and risk.

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