Continuation Breakout Tuesday 11AM 9/30/2025

Datetime range analyzed (EST): 2025-09-29 15:00 through 2025-09-30 11:00

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis

• Semiconductors/AI hardware: AMAT, MRVL, LRCX, VRT, STX pushed higher off the open with elevated volume and held most gains into late morning. The morning trend-and-hold profile, plus higher highs on 30-min bars, points to sustained bid in chips and AI infrastructure equipment.
• Defense/Aerospace: KTOS, AVAV, TDG, NOC showed broad strength; KTOS and AVAV printed ORB-style breakouts and then built higher lows. This group looks supported by momentum flows with shallow intrabar dips.
• Precious Metals/Miners and related leveraged products: AEM, FNV, EXK, and ETFs NUGT, JNUG, GDXU ripped out of the gate, then cooled in mid-morning bull flags while holding above opening range midpoints. That’s constructive for continuation if spot metals remain firm.
• Healthcare: Mixed. Providers (HCA, UHS) were firm; managed care (HUM, ELV) popped and faded toward VWAP; devices/biotech mixed with ISRG steady, REGN giving back gains.
• Software/Cyber/AI: PLTR trended cleanly higher and held near highs; CYBR and CRNC were choppier and gave back a portion of early spikes.
• Financials/Payments/Exchanges: MA and CME were steady-to-sideways after early lifts.
• Communications/Cable: CHTR gapped then faded but still above yesterday’s prints.
• Energy: GPOR firm but range-bound.

Notable patterns

• Opening range breakouts with strong volume in semis (AMAT, MRVL, VRT) and defense (KTOS, AVAV).
• Metals complex staging multi-hour flags after strong upside thrust (AEM, EXK; NUGT/JNUG/GDXU).
• Many leaders are holding above VWAP with higher lows on 30-min bars—favorable for 1-3 day momentum follow-through.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2-3 days)
Most likely to continue higher: PLTR, AMAT, MRVL, VRT, KTOS, AVAV, AEM, EXK

• Strongest bullish tells: opening drive + hold near highs, elevated volume, shallow consolidations above opening range, buyers defending first pullbacks.

Individual Stock Analysis
Note: Levels and trade plans are derived from the provided 30-min intraday tape; confirm alignment with your daily chart and ATR before execution.

1) PLTR

• Thesis: Trend day up, held near HOD; 30-min shows higher lows and tight consolidation—setups for continuation or ORH break.
• Key support: 181.00–181.08; 180.38; 179.65–179.70.
• Key resistance: 181.62 (HOD); 182.50; 185.00.
• Next 2-3 day path: Base 180.5–181.6 then attempt HOD break. If 181.65 clears with volume, 183.5 then 185 is feasible.
• 1–3 day targets: T1 181.6–182.0; T2 183.5; T3 185.0.
• Entries:

– Pullback buy 180.4–180.8 with strength returning.
– Momentum buy on 181.65+ break with expanding volume.

• Stops:

– Pullback entry: below 179.50.
– Breakout entry: back inside 180.90.

2) AMAT

• Thesis: Clean opening push to 210s, healthy pullback holding 208s; semis bid supports a retest of highs.
• Key support: 208.00–208.50; 207.30; 205.10–205.40 (premkt zone).
• Key resistance: 209.69; 210.27 (HOD); 211.00–211.50.
• Next 2-3 day path: Expect 208–210 chop, then a push through 210.3 if semis remain strong; follow-on toward low-211s.
• 1–3 day targets: T1 209.7; T2 210.8; T3 212.5.
• Entries:

– Pullback buy 208.2–208.6 with reclaim.
– Breakout buy through 209.8–210.3 on volume.

• Stops:

– Pullback: <207.20.
– Breakout: <208.90.

3) MRVL

• Thesis: Gap and go to 84.4, orderly pullback to low 83s, now basing—setup for 84 retest and potential 85 probe.
• Key support: 83.65–83.70; 83.06; 81.70 (premkt low).
• Key resistance: 84.17; 84.43 (HOD); 85.00.
• Next 2-3 day path: If 83.2–83.7 base holds, expect squeeze through 84.2 → 84.8; extension to 85+ if chips remain firm.
• 1–3 day targets: T1 84.20; T2 84.80; T3 85.50.
• Entries:

– Buy 83.2–83.4 support with reversal signal.
– Add/alt: 84.20 break on rising volume.

• Stops:

– Swing risk: <82.95 (below morning demand).

4) VRT

• Thesis: Persistent uptrend; higher highs to 148.1 and tight mid-morning coil. AI infrastructure bid favors continuation.
• Key support: 147.00; 146.27; 145.00.
• Key resistance: 148.10 (HOD); 149.00; 150.00.
• Next 2-3 day path: Expect a 146.7–148.1 coil then breakout toward 149.5–151 if dips remain shallow.
• 1–3 day targets: T1 148.10; T2 149.50; T3 151.00.
• Entries:

– Pullback buy 146.7–147.1.
– Breakout buy 148.2+ with volume confirmation.

• Stops:

– Pullback: <145.90.
– Breakout: <147.50.

5) KTOS

• Thesis: Defense momentum name; ORB to 90.98 and holding 90.3–90.5 base—ripe for another push.
• Key support: 90.36–90.44; 89.94; 89.00.
• Key resistance: 90.98 (HOD); 91.50; 92.50.
• Next 2-3 day path: Hold above 90.3 → break 91.00 → grind to 91.8–92.7.
• 1–3 day targets: T1 91.00; T2 91.80; T3 92.70.
• Entries:

– Buy 90.1–90.4 support with buyers stepping in.
– Momentum add above 91.00 on uptick in volume.

• Stops:

– Tight swing: <89.70.

6) AVAV

• Thesis: Strong up channel; 315 test near HOD and orderly dips to 311–314 support band.
• Key support: 313.80–313.85; 311.13; 310.78.
• Key resistance: 314.99–315.00; 316.50; 318.50.
• Next 2-3 day path: Expect 312–315 range then a measured leg toward 317–320 if defense strength persists.
• 1–3 day targets: T1 315.0; T2 317.0; T3 320.0.
• Entries:

– Buy 312.0–313.2 on a wick reclaim.
– Break 315.0 with volume for momentum add.

• Stops:

– Below 309.90 (beneath morning base).

7) AEM

• Thesis: Metals momentum; strong open to 169.4, modest pullback holding 168s—bull flag look.
• Key support: 168.00–168.13; 167.88; 167.00.
• Key resistance: 168.69; 169.38 (HOD); 170.50.
• Next 2-3 day path: If 168 zone holds, look for 169–170.5 retest; continuation depends on metals staying bid.
• 1–3 day targets: T1 169.00; T2 169.80; T3 171.50.
• Entries:

– Pullback buy 168.0–168.2 with strength returning.
– Breakout add 168.70+.

• Stops:

– <167.40 (below flag support).

8) EXK

• Thesis: Big volume surge and push >8.10, then tight consolidation around 8.00—classic momentum pause.
• Key support: 8.00; 7.96; 7.80 (deeper intraday).
• Key resistance: 8.14–8.15 (HOD area); 8.20; 8.35.
• Next 2-3 day path: Base at 7.95–8.05, then attempt 8.15 break; follow-through to 8.30–8.50 if metals stay strong.
• 1–3 day targets: T1 8.15; T2 8.30; T3 8.50.
• Entries:

– Buy 7.95–8.02 support with intrabar reversal.
– Add through 8.15 on increasing volume.

• Stops:

– <7.86 (below morning higher-low structure).

Additional watchlist (constructive but not top-tier for immediate entry): FNV (royalty strength), LRCX (semi follow-through if group breaks again), TDG (expensive but strong tape), STX (storage bid), HCA (provider strength).

Context note

• The provided dataset is intraday-heavy for 9/30 with a few prior prints. The trade plans above emphasize the most recent 30-min price/volume structures and typical 1–3 day momentum behaviors. Before execution, align these setups with your daily chart’s supply/demand and your preferred daily ATR to calibrate target distances and position sizing.