Back to Insights

Continuation Breakout Thursday 4PM 9/25/2025

September 25, 2025 5 min read

Datetime window analyzed (EST): 2025-09-25, primarily 13:00–16:00. Note: The file you provided contains only intraday bars for the last 2–3 hours of the session. The 30-day and 10-day reads below are inferred from today’s closing behavior (trend into the bell, volume expansion, and supply/demand seen on the daily aggregate candle), not from a full 30-day dataset.

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis:

  • Semiconductors led into the close: strength and volume expansion in SOXL (levered semi ETF), TSM, ASML, TER, ACLS, and fab/adapters like SKYT. SOXL ramped with a late push to 34.00 and strong closing prints; TSM/ASML held near highs with shallow pullbacks—classic “accumulation into the bell.”
  • Large-cap tech/services steady bid: IBM stair-stepped higher post 15:30 with rising volume. CIEN (optical networking) pushed to session highs late.
  • Financials firm: AXP and BLK drifted higher late day, closing near highs—indicative of steady institutional demand.
  • Gold/royalty modest risk-on within metals: RGLD pressed to the high-193s into the close, constructive for follow-through.
  • EV/China mixed: NIO ground higher but VNET sold hard into 15:30 with a weak bounce—suggesting selective strength in EV versus weakness in China data/e-comm (VNET, NEGG faded).
  • Biotech broadly mixed: CRBP late-day push; RAPT reclaimed 25.00 into the close; others (KRYS, BEAM, PRAX) softer/muted.
  • Media/real estate lagged: WBD and HOUS faded in the final hour, a defensive tell away from discretionary/media and housing.
  • Crypto-linked ETF (ETHD) sold most of the afternoon, only a mild bounce into the close—risk appetite less robust there.

Notable session patterns:

  • Late-day momentum continuation in semis (SOXL, TSM, ASML, SKYT) with higher highs and closing strength.
  • “Power hour” breakouts or holds in IBM, CIEN, RGLD.
  • Distribution into the bell in WBD, VNET, HOUS, KRYS, BEAM.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days):
Likely upside continuation candidates (strongest bullish signals):

  • SOXL, TSM, ASML, SKYT (sector leader strength, higher highs into close, expanding volume)
  • IBM, CIEN (late-day accumulation and closes near HOD)
  • RGLD (metals bid and strong close)
  • NIO (steady grind up, closes near highs)
  • NB, PONY, MVLL (smaller caps with impulsive late-day pushes and strong closes)

Cautious/avoid for long bias near-term: WBD, VNET, HOUS, ETHD, KRYS, BEAM (selling pressure or weak closes).

Individual Stock Analysis (1–3 day swing plan)
Note: Supports/resistances come from today’s daily aggregate candle and intraday structure. Targets reflect nearby resistance and a realistic 1–3 day ATR-style extension. Always adjust sizing for volatility.

1) SOXL

  • Bias: Bullish continuation if 33.50–33.55 holds on dips.
  • Support: 33.52, 33.42, 32.90–32.59 (LOD zone)
  • Resistance: 33.90, 34.00–34.10, 34.50
  • 2–3 day targets: 34.00, 34.35, 34.80
  • Entries: 33.55–33.60 pullback; or breakout >33.90 with volume
  • Stop-loss: 33.30 (tight), or 33.05 (below structure)
finviz dynamic chart for  SOXL

2) TSM

  • Bias: Constructive above 276.00; breakout over 277.14 could trend.
  • Support: 276.25, 276.07, 275.05–274.06 (LOD)
  • Resistance: 276.90–277.14, 278.50, 280.00
  • 2–3 day targets: 277.50, 279.00, 280.00
  • Entries: 276.10–276.30 retest; add through 277.15 if strength persists
  • Stop-loss: 275.60 (tight), or 275.00 (below morning shelf)
finviz dynamic chart for  TSM

3) ASML

  • Bias: Bullish; held bids near 948–949 and pressed 951 late.
  • Support: 947.50, 946.50, 945.83–941.23 (day low zone)
  • Resistance: 949.55, 951.05, 955.00
  • 2–3 day targets: 951.00, 954.00, 958.00
  • Entries: 947.80–948.60 bids; or break >951.10 with rising volume
  • Stop-loss: 945.80 (beneath intraday demand)
finviz dynamic chart for  ASML

4) SKYT

  • Bias: Clear higher-highs/higher-lows, strong close.
  • Support: 15.18, 15.07–15.10, 14.98–14.75
  • Resistance: 15.41, 15.50, 15.75
  • 2–3 day targets: 15.50, 15.70, 15.95
  • Entries: 15.15–15.20 pullbacks; alternate: break >15.42
  • Stop-loss: 14.95
finviz dynamic chart for  SKYT

5) IBM

  • Bias: Late-day accumulation; room if it clears 282.17 cleanly.
  • Support: 281.01, 279.55, 279.01
  • Resistance: 282.17, 283.00, 285.00
  • 2–3 day targets: 283.40, 285.00, 287.50
  • Entries: 281.20–281.60 on dip; momentum add >282.20
  • Stop-loss: 279.90 (below reclaim)
finviz dynamic chart for  IBM

6) CIEN

  • Bias: Bullish; power-hour push with close near highs.
  • Support: 136.16, 136.25, 134.99–135.00
  • Resistance: 137.61, 138.00, 139.00
  • 2–3 day targets: 138.00, 138.80, 139.80
  • Entries: 136.40–136.60 pullback; add >137.62
  • Stop-loss: 135.90
finviz dynamic chart for  CIEN

7) RGLD

  • Bias: Bid into the close; gold beta supportive of squeezes.
  • Support: 192.32, 192.17, 191.16
  • Resistance: 193.03–193.56, 194.00, 195.00
  • 2–3 day targets: 193.60, 194.50, 195.80
  • Entries: 192.40–192.70 bids; add >193.60 if tape is strong
  • Stop-loss: 191.90
finviz dynamic chart for  RGLD

8) NIO

  • Bias: Grinding up; watch 7.47–7.50 for a clean break.
  • Support: 7.41–7.42, 7.33, 7.30
  • Resistance: 7.47, 7.50, 7.60
  • 2–3 day targets: 7.52, 7.60, 7.75
  • Entries: 7.42–7.44 bids; momentum add >7.50
  • Stop-loss: 7.34
finviz dynamic chart for  NIO

9) NB

  • Bias: Strong trend day; small-cap—use tighter risk.
  • Support: 7.17, 7.11, 6.97
  • Resistance: 7.40, 7.50, 7.70
  • 2–3 day targets: 7.50, 7.65, 7.90
  • Entries: 7.15–7.22 pullbacks to demand
  • Stop-loss: 7.00 (round-number fail)
finviz dynamic chart for  NB

10) PONY

  • Bias: Momentum continuation if 21.00 holds.
  • Support: 20.98–21.00, 20.78–20.83, 20.41
  • Resistance: 21.32, 21.50, 21.90
  • 2–3 day targets: 21.45, 21.75, 22.10
  • Entries: 20.95–21.05 dips; or >21.33 breakout
  • Stop-loss: 20.70
finviz dynamic chart for  PONY

11) MVLL

  • Bias: Steady higher highs; watch 23.90–24.00 lid.
  • Support: 23.46, 23.18, 22.90
  • Resistance: 23.90, 24.00, 24.50
  • 2–3 day targets: 24.00, 24.30, 24.80
  • Entries: 23.35–23.50
  • Stop-loss: 23.05
finviz dynamic chart for  MVLL

Quick notes on names to fade or wait for better structure:

  • WBD: Lower highs and heavy late-day sell—prefer reclaim >20.10 with volume before considering long.
  • VNET: Sharp sell into 15:30; needs base >11.40 reclaim to negate downside momentum.
  • ETHD: Heavy intraday selling; only a tepid bounce—avoid long unless >4.26 is reclaimed with broad crypto strength.
  • KRYS, BEAM, PRAX: Weak closes; wait for reversal signals (engulfing or strong volume reclaim of intraday supply).

Trading approach for the next 1–3 days:

  • Focus on the semi leadership (SOXL, TSM, ASML, SKYT) and quality tech (IBM, CIEN). Prioritize pullback entries to clearly defined supports, or momentum adds through well-identified intraday lids with volume confirmation.
  • Use tight, pre-defined stops at or just below the nearest demand zone. Scale partials into first and second targets; trail stops under higher lows if momentum persists.

If you want, I can re-run this with your full 30-day datasets to refine ATRs and swing levels with higher confidence.

Share: