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Continuation Breakout Thursday 2PM 10/16/2025

October 16, 2025 5 min read

Datetime range analyzed (EST): 2025-10-16, 12:00–14:00 ET using 30-minute bars provided. Note: I did not receive full 30 trading days of daily candles; the commentary emphasizes today’s 30-minute structure as a proxy for recent momentum, with focus on the latest “10-day” context via intraday price/volume behavior.

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis:
– Health Care/Biotech and Life Science Tools dominated the list. Small/mid-cap biotech showed the cleaner intraday momentum:
– Strength: SRPT, PSNL, CRBP posted higher-high progressions and rising volume through midday, suggesting risk-on in selective biotech. ASND and ALNY were mostly quiet; MEDP held firm but edged down late.
– Life science tools were mixed-to-soft: ILMN faded off morning pops; WST, AVTR, WAT, BRKR mostly range-bound to slightly heavy, hinting at rotational interest away from tools into higher beta biotech.
– Semiconductors were mixed:
– MU churned around 203 with heavy volume but couldn’t clear session highs into the afternoon; MPWR slipped modestly; AXTI showed constructive action with a series of higher lows and a push toward 5.00—a potential small-cap semi breakout setup.
– Industrials/Distributors: WSO was steady, stair-stepping higher intraday with orderly volume.
– Financials: LPLA trended lower—profit-taking tone.
– Materials/Other small caps: MGX printed a high-volume spike from 3.32 to 3.85, then consolidated near 3.67—classic momentum continuation candidate. MTLS tried to stabilize after an early dip.
– Microcaps/low-float: OP and LOBO chopped; OP reclaimed 1.90 late, but liquidity is thin.

Notable patterns:
– Small-cap momentum rotation: SRPT, PSNL, MGX, AXTI led upside action with expanding volume on pushes, then constructive consolidations.
– Tools and large-caps mostly in ranges: ILMN, WST, AVTR, WAT, LPLA exhibited less urgency.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days):
Likely upside continuation candidates:
– SRPT, PSNL, AXTI, MGX, SMST
Strongest bullish tells:
– SRPT: consecutive higher 30-min highs and upticks in volume; shallow pullbacks.
– PSNL: reclaimed 10.00 with multiple tests of 10.10; volume expansion on pushes.
– MGX: range expansion + heavy volume squeeze; held most of the gain.
– AXTI: persistent bids toward the 5.00 pivot.
– SMST: pushed to session highs into the last bar.

Individual Stock Analysis (swing horizon 1–3 days)
Note: Support/resistance derived from today’s intraday structure and obvious round-number pivots as proxies for near-term daily supply/demand zones.

1) SRPT
– Supports: 23.20 (late-session close/near-term demand), 23.00 (round-number shelf), 22.50–22.60 (intraday pivot/earlier demand).
– Resistances: 23.50–23.55 (local supply), 23.87 (session high), 24.20–24.50 (extension zone).
– 30-min read/prediction: Expect early consolidation between 23.00–23.55. A 30-min close above 23.55 opens a retest of 23.85–23.90 and a breakout probe to 24.20. Failure to hold 23.00 risks a backfill to 22.60 then buyers likely defend.
– Entry ideas:
– Pullback buy: 23.05–23.20 on higher-low confirmation.
– Breakout buy: 23.58–23.60 with volume expansion.
– Stops:
– Pullback entry stop: 22.88.
– Breakout entry stop: 23.18 (below breakout base).
– 1–3 day targets:
– T1: 23.85–23.90 (prior high re-test).
– T2: 24.20–24.50 (range extension ~0.3–0.6 above prior high).
finviz dynamic chart for  SRPT

2) PSNL
– Supports: 10.00 (psych/close), 9.83–9.85 (intraday swing low), 9.60 (session low/strong demand).
– Resistances: 10.10 (micro-supply), 10.14 (session high), 10.40 (extension/next obvious supply).
– 30-min read/prediction: Constructive flag above 10.00. A push/hold over 10.10 likely tags 10.25–10.30 then 10.40. If it undercuts 10.00, look for a bear trap reclaim; sustained loss of 9.83 would likely drag to 9.60 where dip-buyers may reload.
– Entry ideas:
– Pullback buy: 10.00–10.02 with a quick reclaim of VWAP/10.05.
– Breakout buy: 10.12–10.15 on increasing volume.
– Stops:
– Pullback stop: 9.82.
– Breakout stop: 9.96.
– 1–3 day targets:
– T1: 10.30.
– T2: 10.40–10.55 (range expansion).
finviz dynamic chart for  PSNL

3) AXTI
– Supports: 4.87–4.89 (close/near-term demand), 4.85, 4.82 (session floor).
– Resistances: 4.97–5.00 (major round-number supply), 5.10–5.12 (extension), 5.35 (measured push if 5.00 clears).
– 30-min read/prediction: Gradual grind toward 5.00 with higher lows—looks like a coiled breakout. A decisive 30-min close above 5.00 could trigger momentum runners into 5.10–5.35. Failure at 5.00 likely pulls back to 4.85–4.89 for a higher-low setup.
– Entry ideas:
– Pullback buy: 4.86–4.89 with reversal candle.
– Breakout buy: 5.01–5.03 with strong tape.
– Stops:
– Pullback stop: 4.79.
– Breakout stop: 4.92.
– 1–3 day targets:
– T1: 5.10.
– T2: 5.30–5.35.
finviz dynamic chart for  AXTI

4) MGX
– Supports: 3.62–3.65 (late-session demand), 3.50 (round-number), 3.40 (higher time-frame demand from the spike base).
– Resistances: 3.75, 3.85 (spike high), 4.00–4.10 (psych + measured squeeze zone).
– 30-min read/prediction: Post-spike consolidation is constructive. Expect a bull flag resolution: a break over 3.75 should retest 3.85, then a momentum extension toward 4.00–4.10 if volume remains elevated. Lose 3.50 and the move risks unwinding into 3.40.
– Entry ideas:
– Pullback buy: 3.62–3.66 with higher-low confirmation.
– Breakout buy: 3.76–3.78 on volume.
– Stops:
– Pullback stop: 3.47–3.48.
– Breakout stop: 3.61.
– 1–3 day targets:
– T1: 3.85.
– T2: 4.00–4.10.
finviz dynamic chart for  MGX

5) SMST
– Supports: 34.09 (demand from 14:00 bar), 33.61–33.62 (midday pivot/volume shelf), 33.25 (session low).
– Resistances: 34.56 (closing high), 34.91 (session high), 35.50 (next round-number/extension zone).
– 30-min read/prediction: Strong close at highs—momentum favors an early push to 34.90–35.00. If it flags above 34.30–34.40, look for a continuation into 35.00–35.50. A dip below 34.09 likely tests 33.60 as a reload area.
– Entry ideas:
– Pullback buy: 34.10–34.20 with buyers stepping in.
– Breakout buy: 34.62–34.70 with time/price acceptance.
– Stops:
– Pullback stop: 33.88.
– Breakout stop: 34.28.
– 1–3 day targets:
– T1: 34.90–35.00.
– T2: 35.30–35.50.
finviz dynamic chart for  SMST

Additional notes on others:
– MU: heavy liquidity but indecisive into the afternoon; needs a strong reclaim >204.20 on 30-min close to turn momentum cleanly up.
– WSO: steady relative strength; a move/hold above 370 could target 372–375 near term.
– CRBP: constructive but slower tape; watch 18.95–19.00 breakout; support 18.50.

Risk management and execution:
– For breakouts, favor entries only on expanding volume with quick validation; otherwise, wait for pullback entries at listed demand zones.
– Scale out into T1/T2; trail stops to breakeven after T1.
– If the first 30–60 minutes produce a gap against the setup, reassess—no forced trades.

If you can share full daily candles for the last 30 sessions, I can refine the daily supply/demand zones and ATR-based targets with higher precision.

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