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Continuation Breakout Thursday 11AM 9/25/2025

September 25, 2025 4 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (EST range reviewed: 2025-09-24 15:30 to 2025-09-25 11:00)

  • Semiconductors led risk-on: TSM and SKYT posted strong morning trend-ups with higher lows and steady bids into late morning; SOXL confirmed broad semi strength. ACMR faded after an early pop, signaling selectivity—large-cap foundries and specialty fabs leading, mid-cap equipment lagging.
  • AI/Software and higher-growth tech bid: PLTR stair-stepped to new intraday highs before a controlled pullback; DUOL broke out hard from the open and is consolidating near highs. PDYN spiked and is flagging.
  • China/EV momentum: NIO showed a classic gap-and-go and is holding gains above 7.50.
  • Materials mixed: NB ripped on strong volume (continuation potential), while SBSW faded from early strength.
  • Satellite/Telecom: TSAT grinding higher but thin.
  • Micro/special-situations: PAVS flushed after a pop; AZULQ is illiquid; PONY retraced after a strong open.

Noticeable patterns (tickers referenced):

  • Trend-day behavior in leaders (TSM, SOXL, DUOL, PLTR) with orderly pullbacks and consolidations near session highs—a bullish short-term tell.
  • Selective weakness within semis (ACMR) and precious metals (SBSW) suggests rotation rather than broad risk-off.
  • Small/micro-cap volatility high and two-sided (PDYN, PONY, PAVS); treat with caution.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)

Most likely to continue higher:

  • TSM, SKYT, PLTR, DUOL, NIO, NB, PRAX

Strongest bullish signals:

  • DUOL: Powerful breakout and tight consolidation near highs.
  • TSM: Persistent grind with higher lows; semi tape strong.
  • PLTR: Momentum continuation setup after a strong push and shallow pullback.
  • SKYT: Expansion day with increasing participation.
  • NB: High-volume expansion from a multi-hour base.

Individual Stock Analysis (key daily levels derived from current intraday structure and obvious supply/demand zones; ATR proxies use today’s realized range)

TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor)

  • Supports: 274.60; 273.20; 272.50
  • Resistances: 275.82 (HOD); 276.20; 278.00–278.50
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): As long as price holds above 274.5 and reclaims 275.8, look for a push into 276.6 then 278–278.5. Failure to hold 274.5 risks a retest of 273.2.
  • 1–3 day targets (ATR≈5.6): 276.6; 278.3; stretch 281.0–281.5
  • Entries: 274.6–274.9 pullback buy; add on breakout through 275.9
  • Stop: 273.1 (tighter), or 272.4 (roomier)
finviz dynamic chart for TSM

SKYT (SkyWater Technology)

  • Supports: 15.20; 14.99; 14.60
  • Resistances: 15.59 (HOD); 16.00; 16.50
  • 30-min outlook: Flagging under 15.6 after an expansion leg. Base above 15.2 sets up 15.6 breakout → 16.0.
  • 1–3 day targets (ATR≈1.34): 15.60; 16.00; 16.60–16.90
  • Entries: 15.15–15.25 pullback; or 15.62 breakout
  • Stop: 14.85 (below VWAP-area shelf) or 14.58 (below demand zone)
finviz dynamic chart for SKYT

PLTR (Palantir)

  • Supports: 182.00; 181.00; 179.50
  • Resistances: 183.80–184.00; 185.50; 187.50–188.00
  • 30-min outlook: Bullish continuation if 182 holds; reclaiming 184 opens a trend leg toward 185.5–187.5.
  • 1–3 day targets (ATR≈9.7): 185.5; 187.8; stretch 190.0
  • Entries: 181.8–182.2 buy-the-dip; add through 184.1
  • Stop: 179.8 (beneath morning demand)
finviz dynamic chart for PLTR

DUOL (Duolingo)

  • Supports: 311.00–312.00; 310.20; 306.70
  • Resistances: 315.20 (HOD); 318.00; 322.00
  • 30-min outlook: Breakout-and-hold; consolidating under HOD. Above 312, look for 315.2 retest → 318.
  • 1–3 day targets (ATR≈20.8): 316–318; 320; stretch 324–325
  • Entries: 310.5–311.5 pullback; or 315.4 breakout
  • Stop: 307.8 (beneath consolidation floor)
finviz dynamic chart for DUOL

NIO

  • Supports: 7.50; 7.47; 7.35
  • Resistances: 7.60–7.68; 7.80; 8.00
  • 30-min outlook: Trend-up morning, now holding above 7.50. Through 7.60, expect tests of 7.68 and 7.80.
  • 1–3 day targets (ATR≈0.68): 7.68; 7.80; stretch 8.00
  • Entries: 7.45–7.52 pullback; add over 7.60
  • Stop: 7.34 (below mid-morning base)
finviz dynamic chart for NIO

NB (NioCorp Developments)

  • Supports: 7.10; 6.95; 6.78
  • Resistances: 7.30–7.39; 7.50; 7.80
  • 30-min outlook: Strong expansion from open; consolidating under 7.30–7.39 supply. A clean break sets 7.50 next.
  • 1–3 day targets (ATR≈1.15): 7.40–7.50; 7.80; stretch 8.10
  • Entries: 7.00–7.12 pullback; or 7.40 breakout confirmation
  • Stop: 6.85 (below demand shelf)
finviz dynamic chart for NB

PRAX

  • Supports: 49.25; 48.62; 47.00
  • Resistances: 49.91–50.29; 50.56; 52.00
  • 30-min outlook: Strong morning impulse; basing 49–49.5. Through 50.3–50.6 opens a quick run into low 51s.
  • 1–3 day targets (ATR≈3.6): 50.6; 52.0; stretch 53.5
  • Entries: 49.2–49.5 pullback; or 50.3–50.6 breakout
  • Stop: 48.4 (beneath morning demand)
finviz dynamic chart for PRAX

Secondary watch (bullish but lower conviction or higher risk)

  • SOXL: Trend continuation while semis bid; use TSM levels for context.
  • TSAT: Slow grind; thin liquidity—use wider stops.
  • PDYN: Flagging after a spike; breakout over 9.25 could squeeze into 9.60–9.90.
  • Avoid/neutral for now: ACMR (fading), SBSW (slipping), PAVS (flush), AZULQ (illiquid), PONY (retracing).

Notes

  • The dataset provided covers roughly the last trading session and late prints, not a full 30-day history. Levels and ATR proxies are derived from the current intraday structure and may tighten/expand as more data prints. Adjust position sizing to reflect volatility and liquidity.
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