Continuation Breakout Monday 3PM 10/13/2025

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (EST window analyzed)

• Data window provided: Oct 13, 2025, 12:30–15:00 EST (30-minute bars) across all tickers; plus limited Oct 10, 2025 prints for RAASY. No full 30-day or 10-day aggregates were included, so the commentary emphasizes intraday structure and relative strength/weakness within this window.

Sector/industry read-through from price/volume:

• Life Sciences Tools/Diagnostics (DHR, WAT, BRKR, AVTR): Mixed-to-soft into the afternoon. DHR and WAT faded into the close on steady volume, suggesting supply at intraday highs. BRKR showed relative strength with a decisive push to 37.11 and an orderly pullback on heavy turnover—best momentum candidate in the group. AVTR ranged tightly around 13.85–13.95 with rising prints into 14:00 but faded late—neutral.
• Biotech/Pharma (ALNY, INSM, ARGX, IMAB, OLMA): Large-cap leaders (ALNY, INSM, ARGX, IMAB) leaned lower through the afternoon with persistent supply on upticks—risk-off tone in higher-beta biotech. Small-cap OLMA held higher lows and maintained bid support near 10.80–10.86, signaling quiet accumulation.
• Aerospace/Defense (AVAV): Held a tight 405–410 band, repeatedly bought near 406–407 and closing firm—constructive relative strength and a potential coil for continuation.
• Energy/Materials (METC, MLM): Clear divergence. Coal (METC) trended higher all afternoon with expanding volume and a strong close near highs—accumulation. Aggregates (MLM) trended lower and lost the 641s late—supply dominant.
• Healthcare Distribution/Services (COR): Two-sided but contained; little directional edge in this window.
• Speculative/micro-cap (MGRX, TBH, SDST, LOBO, EUDA, RAYA, RAASY): Choppy and liquidity-dependent. MGRX built higher lows and pressed 2.40s late (constructive). TBH unwound sharply, then stabilized—bearish bounce candidate at best. SDST popped early and faded into a tight 4.86–4.97 band—needs confirmation. LOBO/EUDA/RAYA/RAASY showed thin tapes—use caution.

Notable patterns and tickers:

• Late-day accumulation: METC, MGRX.
• Break-and-retest behavior on volume: BRKR near 37.
• Flag/coil holding higher on dips: AVAV 406–409.
• Broad afternoon fades in large-cap biotech and tools: ALNY, INSM, ARGX, DHR, WAT.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 sessions)
Most likely upside continuation candidates:

• METC: Strong late-day trend with rising volume; commodity/coal bid.
• AVAV: Tight coil with higher lows; defense strength persists.
• BRKR: Relative strength within tools; pullback after breakout offers a clean pivot.
• OLMA: Quiet accumulation profile; low-risk base.
• MGRX: Micro-cap momentum building through 2.40s; needs volume confirmation.

Strongest bullish signals: METC and AVAV, with BRKR close behind.

Individual Stock Analysis (1–3 day swing setups)
Note: Where daily ATR was not provided, I use today’s intraday high-low range as a proxy for a 1-day ATR to size targets.

1) METC
Thesis (30-min): Persistent higher highs/lows into the close, volume expanding into strength—momentum continuation favored if 52.90–53.10 holds.

• Key supports: 53.00, 52.50, 52.25 (today’s demand zone and intraday higher low).
• Key resistances: 53.50 (today’s high), 54.00, 54.50.
• 2–3 day price action: If holding above 53.00 on the open, expect a push through 53.50 toward 54.00, with potential extension on day 2 into mid-54s if volume remains elevated. Failure to hold 52.50 likely forces a retest of 52.25.
• 1–3 day targets (ATR proxy ≈ 1.24):

– T1: 53.90–54.00
– T2: 54.50
– T3: 54.65–54.80 (close + ~ATR)

• Entry ideas: Starter on pullbacks 53.05–53.15; add on reclaim/hold above 53.50.
• Stop-loss: 52.40 (below S2/S3 and session demand pocket).

2) AVAV
Thesis (30-min): Repeated bids in 406–407 with closes near 408–409; constructive coil for a 410+ break.

• Key supports: 406.00, 405.00, 403.50 (round and recent reaction zones).
• Key resistances: 409.80–410.00, 411.50, 412.50.
• 2–3 day price action: Hold 406–407 early and rotate through 410; sustained trade above 410 opens a trend day toward low 412s, with a 2–3 day follow-through if defense flows persist.
• 1–3 day targets (ATR proxy ≈ 5.0):

– T1: 409.80–410.00
– T2: 412.50
– T3: 413.00–413.50 (close + ~ATR)

• Entry ideas: Buy 406.50–407.20 with confirmation (higher low on 30-min or VWAP reclaim); add on 410 break and hold.
• Stop-loss: 404.80 (below S2, invalidates coil).

3) BRKR
Thesis (30-min): Best relative strength in tools. Strong push to 37.11, then orderly retrace to mid-36.60s on high volume—classic break-pullback setup.

• Key supports: 36.49, 36.30, 36.09 (session low).
• Key resistances: 36.99–37.11, 37.40, 37.65.
• 2–3 day price action: Early hold above 36.49 sets a retest of 37.00–37.11; acceptance above 37.11 can trend to 37.40–37.65. Lose 36.30 and it likely revisits 36.10.
• 1–3 day targets (ATR proxy ≈ 1.02):

– T1: 36.99–37.11
– T2: 37.50
– T3: 37.65–37.75 (close + ~ATR)

• Entry ideas: Scale in 36.45–36.55; add on firm reclaim of 37.00 with rising volume.
• Stop-loss: 36.20 (below S2, avoids noise under first support).

4) OLMA
Thesis (30-min): Tight base with consistent bids near 10.80–10.86; sellers absorbed near 10.89. Low-risk base that can pop on modest volume.

• Key supports: 10.83–10.85, 10.78, 10.71.
• Key resistances: 10.89, 11.00, 11.20.
• 2–3 day price action: A clean 10.89–11.00 break could trigger a measured push into 11.10–11.20. Failure to hold 10.78 likely cycles back to 10.71.
• 1–3 day targets (ATR proxy ≈ 0.18):

– T1: 10.95–11.00
– T2: 11.10
– T3: 11.20 (close + ~ATR ≈ 11.04; stretching to the next round level)

• Entry ideas: Accumulate 10.82–10.86; add on 10.95–11.00 break with volume.
• Stop-loss: 10.74 (below S2/S3 to avoid wick-outs).

5) MGRX
Thesis (30-min): Higher lows and a late push to 2.39–2.43 with rising prints; micro-cap momentum is building but requires volume confirmation.

• Key supports: 2.32, 2.30, 2.26.
• Key resistances: 2.40–2.43, 2.50, 2.60.
• 2–3 day price action: Hold 2.30–2.32 and reclaim 2.40–2.43 to open a quick move into 2.50, with an extension to 2.60 on sustained tape. Lose 2.30 and momentum stalls back toward 2.26.
• 1–3 day targets (ATR proxy ≈ 0.24):

– T1: 2.43–2.45
– T2: 2.50–2.55
– T3: 2.63 (close + ~ATR)

• Entry ideas: Nibble 2.31–2.33; add on 2.41–2.43 breakout with time-and-sales confirmation.
• Stop-loss: 2.27 (below S3 to account for micro-cap volatility).

Additional notes on names not favored near term

• Large-cap biotech (ALNY, INSM, ARGX) and tools (DHR, WAT) showed afternoon supply; they may need to base before offering clean long entries.
• MLM trended lower; avoid longs until it reclaims 641.50–642 with authority.
• TBH, SDST, LOBO, EUDA, RAYA, RAASY are thin/whippy; treat as day-trade only until sustained liquidity and structure improve.

Risk management reminder

• For all setups, size positions so a stop at the indicated level risks no more than 0.5–1.0R of your plan. If the open gaps beyond a listed level, wait for a 30-minute structure to form and adjust entries/stops accordingly.