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Swing Idea

Continuation Breakout Monday 2PM 10/13/2025

October 13, 2025 4 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis
Datetime range analyzed (EST): 2025-10-10 13:00 to 2025-10-13 14:00, based solely on the intraday bars you provided. Note: No 30-day history was included, so conclusions emphasize today’s session and very near-term momentum.

  • Healthcare/Biotech mixed-to-weak, with notable dispersion:
    • Large-cap/established bio and distributors faded or churned: ALNY saw a heavy-volume sell bar at 13:30 (518k) and closed lower into 470s; ARGX slipped from ~809 to ~804; MCK and COR both bled lower through midday. INSM and IMAB were tight and slightly heavy. Tickers: ALNY, ARGX, MCK, COR, INSM, IMAB.
    • Small/mid-cap bright spot: STOK trended higher all session with higher highs and growing volume into the 13:30 bar. OLMA was steady but thin. AVTR and WAT (Life Sciences Tools) were neutral-to-stable; AVTR showed persistent liquidity and a tight range; WAT ranged but held 333–335. Tickers: STOK, OLMA, AVTR, WAT.
  • Aerospace & Defense outperformed: AVAV printed higher highs/lows across the midday window and closed near the top of range. Ticker: AVAV.
  • Materials/Commodities mixed: MLM sagged intraday; METC (coal) held higher lows and defended 52s after a 53.04 test—constructive vs. peers. Tickers: MLM, METC.
  • Micro-cap/illiquid tape was choppy and event-driven: SDST spiked 4.62 → 5.18 then retraced toward 4.80; EUDA trended down; TBH flushed 1.30 → 1.12; LOBO ticked up but very thin; RAASY is extremely illiquid. Tickers: SDST, EUDA, TBH, LOBO, RAASY.

Notable patterns:

  • Risk rotated toward defense and selective small/mid-cap biotech momentum (AVAV, STOK).
  • Life Sciences Tools steady bid (AVTR, WAT) despite weakness in big-cap biotech and distributors (ALNY, ARGX, MCK, COR).
  • Materials bifurcated: building materials soft (MLM), coal steadier (METC).

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)
Likely upside follow-through:

  • AVAV: Strong intraday trend, held higher lows; poised for continuation if 405–406 holds.
  • STOK: Clean staircase of higher highs with rising volume into the afternoon; momentum bias up while above 30.80.
  • AVTR: Tight coil with repeated tests near 13.95; a small push can unlock 14+.
  • METC: Higher low basing above 52; a re-test and break of 52.90–53.05 can squeeze to mid-53s.
  • WAT: Range-bound but firm; holds 333–334 and can grind to 336–338 on mean-reversion.

Strongest bullish signals today: AVAV, STOK.

Individual Stock Analysis
Note: Support/resistance reflect nearby supply/demand zones visible on today’s 30-minute action and key round-number pivots. ATR-based targets are approximations for 1–3 day swings.

AVAV (Aerospace & Defense)

  • Supports: 405.0; 402.5; 400.5
  • Resistances: 408.7 (session high); 412.0; 418.0
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Bias remains up while above 405. Expect an early probe of 408.7–410; clearing and holding >409–410 opens 412 then 415–418 over 1–3 days.
  • 1–3 day swing targets: 408.7, 412.0, stretch 418.0 (approx 1x ATR push).
  • Entry ideas: Pullback buy 405.5–406.5; add on reclaim/hold above 409.
  • Stop-loss: 401.8 (below demand and round 402); tighter traders 404.4.
finviz dynamic chart for AVAV

STOK (Biotech)

  • Supports: 31.00; 30.80; 30.50
  • Resistances: 31.40; 31.85; 32.60
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Momentum trend intact. While above 30.80, look for 31.40 test; break/hold over 31.40 targets 31.85 then 32.20–32.60 within 1–3 sessions.
  • 1–3 day swing targets: 31.40, 31.85, 32.60 (roughly 0.8–2.0x daily ATR zone).
  • Entry ideas: Buy near 31.00–31.10 on dips; secondary add on 31.42 breakout with volume.
  • Stop-loss: 30.45 (below demand and intraday base).
finviz dynamic chart for STOK

AVTR (Life Sciences Tools)

  • Supports: 13.84; 13.80; 13.70
  • Resistances: 13.95; 14.10; 14.30
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Coiling. A clean break/close above 13.95 likely pushes a grind to 14.10; sustained bid above 14.10 opens 14.25–14.30 over 1–3 days.
  • 1–3 day swing targets: 13.95, 14.10, 14.30.
  • Entry ideas: Accumulate 13.83–13.88 with tight risk; or breakout buy >13.96 on expanding volume.
  • Stop-loss: 13.74 (below coil floor).
finviz dynamic chart for AVTR

METC (Coal)

  • Supports: 52.35; 52.00; 51.60
  • Resistances: 52.90; 53.05; 53.40
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Constructive base above 52 after testing 53.04. Look for re-test of 52.90–53.05; a breakout can extend to 53.40 then 54.00 over 1–3 days if energy/materials hold.
  • 1–3 day swing targets: 52.90, 53.40, 54.00.
  • Entry ideas: Buy 52.20–52.45 on dips into demand; add on push through 53.05.
  • Stop-loss: 51.55 (under 51.60 demand and session pivot).
finviz dynamic chart for METC

WAT (Life Sciences Tools)

  • Supports: 333.50; 333.00; 332.20
  • Resistances: 335.40; 336.50; 338.20
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Range maintenance day with buyers defending 333–334. If holds above 334 on open, expect a grind to 335.4; over 335.4 can tag 336.5–338.2 in 1–3 sessions.
  • 1–3 day swing targets: 335.4, 336.5, 338.2.
  • Entry ideas: Buy 334.0–334.3 on pullbacks or range breakout through 335.5 with volume.
  • Stop-loss: 332.80 (below range floor).
finviz dynamic chart for WAT

Context/risks and what could invalidate

  • The dataset is intraday-only, limiting 30-day context; treat these as short-term momentum plans.
  • Broad biotech weakness (ALNY, ARGX, INSM softness) could cap STOK/AVTR/WAT if it accelerates.
  • If AVAV loses 405 or STOK loses 30.80 on expanding volume, momentum bias flips to neutral/defensive.
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