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Swing Idea

Continuation Breakout Monday 1PM 10/13/2025

October 13, 2025 5 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (ET window analyzed: 2025-10-13 11:00–13:00)
Note: Only intraday 30-minute data for the session above was provided. I don’t have the full last-30-days daily data, so the “daily” zones below are proxied from recent intraday structure, round numbers, and obvious nearby swing points. Commentary focuses on momentum/volume behavior and how it likely sets up the next 1–3 days.

  • Healthcare/Biotech strong-to-stable breadth: ALNY, AVTR, AVAV (defense/aero but healthcare-adjacent demand catalysts often correlate with this tape), MCK, INSM, ARGX, OLMA, IMAB. Standouts on relative strength and clean intraday trend: ALNY (push and hold near highs), AVTR (persistent bid on above-average intraday volume), AVAV (steady higher highs/higher lows). MCK/INSM/ARGX/WAT/COR printed tight ranges with little impulse; IMAB popped then faded (seller presence into 6.15).
  • Small-cap/micro-cap momentum bifurcated: SDST and TBH showed genuine momentum (range expansion + volume surge) with constructive consolidations mid-day; EUDA and FLUX faded (lower highs/lows) and LOBO/OLMA were illiquid/sideways.
  • Industrials/Materials mixed: MLM flat-to-choppy around 642–643; CNR range-bound near 101; METC (coal) showed constructive reclaim and tight consolidation under 53—healthiest of the group for a push.
  • Takeaways/trends
    • Momentum longs: SDST, TBH (micro-cap continuation setups); AVAV, ALNY, AVTR (large/mid-cap strength with controlled pullbacks); METC (commodity beta with clear trigger).
    • Fade/avoid near-term: FLUX, EUDA (intraday trend down with expanding supply into lows); IMAB neutral-to-soft unless it reclaims 6.10–6.15; the rest are range-bound, likely to chop unless a catalyst hits.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)
Likely upside candidates (ranked by momentum quality and follow-through potential):
1) SDST – Strong range expansion, heavy volume, closed near the upper third; prime for 1–2 more pushes if 4.90–5.00 holds.
2) AVAV – Trend day characteristics; shallow pullbacks; favors continuation toward 410–415.
3) ALNY – Push + hold near highs; room toward mid/high 470s if 470 area supports.
4) TBH – High-volume day 1 spike with intraday digestion; day 2–3 continuation likely if 1.28–1.30 base holds.
5) METC – Tight coil under 53 with multiple attempts; breakout over 53.04 can target mid-53s to 54s.
6) AVTR – Slow grind with steady demand; modest upside to 14+ if 13.85–13.90 holds.

Stocks showing strongest bullish signals: SDST, AVAV, ALNY.

Individual Stock Analysis (1–3 day swing plan)
Note: “Daily” levels proxied from visible intraday structure and obvious round/supply-demand zones given limited history.

SDST

  • Key support: 4.62–4.65 (mid-morning pivot), 4.50 (round/volume node), 4.30–4.37 (session early low/open zone).
  • Key resistance: 5.00 (psych/inflection), 5.18 (session HOD), 5.50 (next round-number supply).
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Expect a bull flag/AB=CD style continuation if price opens/holds above 4.90–5.00. Break and hold >5.00 → 5.18 test; over 5.18 opens 5.35–5.50. Lose 4.62 and it likely backfills toward 4.50.
  • Targets (1–3 days): 5.18, 5.35, stretch 5.50–5.60 (based on today’s ~0.88 range).
  • Entries: Starter on pullbacks 4.90–4.95; add 4.62–4.65 if tested and held; breakout add through 5.01–5.05 on volume.
  • Stop-loss: Conservative 4.48; aggressive 4.58 (beneath 4.62 support). Hard stop under 4.30 invalidates momentum.
finviz dynamic chart for SDST

AVAV

  • Key support: 406.0–406.3 (PM pivot/last bar support), 404.5 (midday higher low), 401.8 (early support).
  • Key resistance: 408.75 (HOD), 410.0 (psych), 415.0 (next supply/ATR extension).
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Continuation favored while 404.5–406 holds. Break >408.75 likely tags 410–412 first, with potential drift/grind toward 415 if tape stays risk-on.
  • Targets (1–3 days): 409.5, 412.0, 415.0–416.5.
  • Entries: Pullback buy 406.2–406.8; secondary entry 404.7–405.2 if tested and defended; breakout add above 409 on strong tape.
  • Stop-loss: Tight 403.9; wider swing 401.2.
finviz dynamic chart for AVAV

ALNY

  • Key support: 470.6–471.0 (afternoon shelf), 468.7 (rising base), 467.0 (early session low zone).
  • Key resistance: 472.77 (micro-HOD), 473.65 (intraday extension high), 475.0 (psych/likely supply).
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Constructive consolidation near highs; over 472.8 sets a quick 473.6–475 test. Hold 471 on dips keeps the trend intact; lose 468.7 risks a deeper drift to 467.
  • Targets (1–3 days): 473.6, 475.0, 478–480 if momentum broadens across healthcare.
  • Entries: Buy dips 470.8–471.2; add above 472.8 on expanding volume.
  • Stop-loss: Tight 469.8; wider swing 468.3.
finviz dynamic chart for ALNY

TBH

  • Key support: 1.28–1.30 (VWAP-like base from digestion), 1.23 (midday demand), 1.20 (round/flush line).
  • Key resistance: 1.35 (cap all session), 1.40 (psych), 1.50 (round/supply).
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Day-2 move likely if 1.28–1.30 holds. Break >1.35 → magnet to 1.40; sustained strength can push 1.45–1.50. Failure back under 1.23 opens 1.20/liquidity pockets.
  • Targets (1–3 days): 1.35, 1.42, 1.50–1.55 (using day-1 range ~0.37).
  • Entries: Buy 1.28–1.30 on tight risk; add through 1.35 on volume with quick risk management.
  • Stop-loss: Tight 1.24–1.25; hard stop 1.19–1.20.
finviz dynamic chart for TBH

METC

  • Key support: 52.30 (midday base), 52.09 (intraday low), 51.60 (session floor).
  • Key resistance: 52.73 (reclaim/settlement zone), 53.04 (HOD area), 53.50–54.20 (next supply band).
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Coil under 53. A clean push and hold >53.05 should target 53.5 then 54+. Failure to break likely means continued 52.1–52.9 chop.
  • Targets (1–3 days): 53.10, 53.80, 54.20.
  • Entries: Buy 52.30–52.40 on dips; add through 53.05 on break.
  • Stop-loss: Tight 51.95; wider swing under 51.55.
finviz dynamic chart for METC

AVTR

  • Key support: 13.85–13.88 (afternoon base), 13.80 (demand shelf), 13.76 (session low).
  • Key resistance: 13.92 (cap), 13.96 (HOD), 14.10 (next supply/round).
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Grind continues while 13.85 holds; a push >13.96 opens 14.05–14.15. Lose 13.80 and it likely revisits 13.70s.
  • Targets (1–3 days): 13.98, 14.10, 14.25.
  • Entries: Dips 13.85–13.88; breakout add above 13.96 if volume persists.
  • Stop-loss: Tight 13.78; wider swing 13.73.
finviz dynamic chart for AVTR

Notes on the rest

  • Neutral/range: MCK, INSM, ARGX, WAT, COR, CNR, MLM, OLMA. Look for catalysts or decisive breaks of today’s ranges to initiate.
  • Caution/weak: FLUX (lower highs → lower lows; avoid until it reclaims 6.20–6.30 with volume), EUDA (fading structure; needs 3.50+ reclaim), IMAB (faded off 6.15; strength only above 6.10–6.15).

Risk management

  • Size down on micro-caps (SDST, TBH) due to volatility and liquidity gaps.
  • Use partial profit taking at first targets; trail stops under higher lows to reduce giveback.
  • If broader market risk-off hits, favor taking profits faster and tightening stops across the board.

This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.

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