Back to Insights
Swing Idea

Continuation Breakout Monday 11AM 9/29/2025

September 29, 2025 5 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis:

  • Datetime range analyzed (EST): 2025-09-29 09:00–11:00, with a few isolated prints from 2025-09-26. Note: Only intraday data for today was provided; multi-week context is inferred from today’s momentum and relative strength.

  • Read-through from the basket:

    • Semis, storage, and semi-cap equipment led early: WDC, STX, ONTO, AXTI, MRAM all posted gap-and-go opens with elevated volume. ONTO and AXTI held higher lows; STX faded off highs but stabilized ~229–230. This clustering signals continuing interest in chips/storage/equipment.
    • Software/ad-tech momentum: APP exploded off the open to new session highs, then flagged above 720, suggesting continuation potential if QQQ remains firm.
    • Space/satellite and communications: GSAT trended steadily higher with consistent higher lows and buyers supporting dips near 35.8–36.0.
    • Defense/drones: RCAT showed sustained liquidity and held upper half of the morning range.
    • Biotech/risk-on: VOR advanced and closed each 30-min bar near highs late-morning; ENTO also bid but thinner.
    • Industrials: CAT and PWR grinded higher with controlled intraday ranges—risk appetite present beyond tech but less explosive.
    • Broad market proxy: QQQ was modestly green and range-bound (~599–602), a supportive but not euphoric backdrop. In that context, leaders with strong individual flows (APP, GSAT, ONTO, AXTI, RCAT, VOR, WDC) stood out on relative strength and volume expansion.
  • Patterns/trends:
    • Repeated gap-and-go -> midday consolidation patterns across semis/storage (WDC, ONTO, AXTI) and momentum software (APP).
    • Pullback-and-hold above morning breakout pivots (GSAT 35.8–36.0; RCAT 10.78–10.84).
    • Higher lows into late morning on several leaders (VOR, GSAT), suggesting dip-buying interest into the afternoon and next sessions.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days):

Most likely to rise (bullish setups, relative strength, and constructive intraday structure):

  • APP – strong breakout, high relative volume, holding a high-level flag.
  • GSAT – steady trend, buyers defending 35.8–36.0; room to test/clear 36.33.
  • ONTO – controlled trend with a clean 132.62 pivot; semi-cap tailwind.
  • AXTI – high-volume breakout above 5 with shallow pullback; continuation favored.
  • RCAT – high volume, contained pullback, clear 11.00–11.13 pivot overhead.
  • VOR – persistent strength with late-morning push to session highs.
  • WDC – strong open, constructive consolidation above 116; storage theme supportive.

Stocks showing the strongest near-term bullish signals: APP, GSAT, ONTO.

Individual Stock Analysis:

APP (AppLovin) finviz dynamic chart for APP

  • Supports: 721.93–722.00; 713.08–713.45; 708.81.
  • Resistances: 727.28; 735.00 (round/pivot zone); 745.61 (HOD).
  • 30-min read/prediction (2–3 days): Expect a high-level flag between ~713–735. A sustained push over 727–735 with volume could retest 745. If QQQ stays firm, a 1–1.5 ATR extension above 745 is possible over 1–3 days.
  • 1–3 day targets: 731–733; 740–742; 748–750.
  • Entries:

– Pullback buy 718–722 into support with tight risk.
– Momentum add on 735+ reclaim with volume.

  • Stop-loss: 712–713 (beneath flag base). Wider swing stop 708.50 if sizing smaller.

GSAT (Globalstar) finviz dynamic chart for GSAT

  • Supports: 35.93–36.00; 35.70–35.80; 34.42 (gap low, deeper support).
  • Resistances: 36.20; 36.33; 36.50–37.00 (round/extension).
  • 30-min read/prediction: Trending tape with higher lows; look for a 36–36.33 coil and breakout toward 36.5–37 in 1–3 days if dips keep getting absorbed above 35.8.
  • 1–3 day targets: 36.50; 36.90; 37.50.
  • Entries:

– Pullback buy 35.90–36.00.
– Breakout buy on 36.33–36.35 with uptick in volume.

  • Stop-loss: 35.70 (beneath rising demand zone). Deeper swing stop 35.40 if wider risk is needed.

ONTO (Onto Innovation) finviz dynamic chart for ONTO

  • Supports: 131.12; 131.02; 130.34.
  • Resistances: 131.55; 132.00 (round); 132.62 (HOD/pivot).
  • 30-min read/prediction: Steady grind; base building above 131. A measured break over 132–132.62 can target mid-133s over 1–3 days.
  • 1–3 day targets: 131.90–132.10; 132.50–132.70; 133.20–133.50.
  • Entries:

– Buy 131.10–131.20 on dips to support.
– Add through 132.10–132.20 on strength.

  • Stop-loss: 130.80 (beneath local structure). Conservative swing stop 130.30.

AXTI (AXT Inc.) finviz dynamic chart for AXTI

  • Supports: 5.18–5.20; 5.16; 4.88–4.90 (gap base).
  • Resistances: 5.34–5.37; 5.38; 5.50.
  • 30-min read/prediction: Breakout >5 held with light retrace; expect a retest of 5.34–5.38 and potential extension if volume returns. Dips to 5.18–5.20 should attract buyers.
  • 1–3 day targets: 5.34; 5.45; 5.60.
  • Entries:

– Accumulate 5.18–5.22 with tight risk.
– Momentum add through 5.38.

  • Stop-loss: 5.12 initial. Deeper swing stop 4.98 if allowing room to the gap base.

RCAT (Red Cat Holdings) finviz dynamic chart for RCAT

  • Supports: 10.78–10.84; 10.56; 10.49.
  • Resistances: 10.92–10.98; 11.01–11.08; 11.13.
  • 30-min read/prediction: Held upper half of range with strong liquidity; a clean reclaim/hold above 11 could open a push into 11.30–11.60 over 1–3 days.
  • 1–3 day targets: 11.00–11.10; 11.30–11.35; 11.55–11.75.
  • Entries:

– Buy 10.80–10.85 support retests.
– Add through 11.05 on confirmation.

  • Stop-loss: 10.60 (below intraday demand). Wider swing stop 10.45.

VOR (Vor Biopharma) finviz dynamic chart for VOR

  • Supports: 37.57; 37.12; 37.02.
  • Resistances: 37.80; 38.00; 38.50.
  • 30-min read/prediction: Persistent bid with late-morning push; thesis is a tight consolidation 37.3–38.0 then attempt to clear 38 for a measured leg up.
  • 1–3 day targets: 38.20; 38.80; 39.50.
  • Entries:

– Buy 37.55–37.65 near rising support.
– Add on 38.00–38.05 break with volume.

  • Stop-loss: 37.10 (below the higher-low shelf). Conservative swing stop 36.90.

WDC (Western Digital) finviz dynamic chart for WDC

  • Supports: 116.18; 115.90–115.93; 112.02 (gap/open anchor, deeper).
  • Resistances: 116.73; 117.09; 117.76–118.14.
  • 30-min read/prediction: Gap-up and digestion above 116; look for a push over 117.1 to re-attack 117.8–118.1. Storage peer strength (STX) supportive if it stabilizes >230.
  • 1–3 day targets: 117.50; 118.20; 119.00.
  • Entries:

– Buy 116.00–116.40 pullbacks.
– Add on 117.10–117.20 break/hold.

  • Stop-loss: 115.80 initial; wider swing stop 115.40 if allowing for shakeouts.

Context notes:

  • With only today’s intraday data provided, key daily supply/demand zones and ATRs are approximated from session structure and round-number pivots. If you can share the last 10–30 daily candles, I can refine daily zones and ATR-derived targets further.
Share:

Related Posts