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Swing Idea

Continuation Breakout Monday 11AM 10/06/2025

October 6, 2025 5 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (EST range analyzed: 2025-10-03 15:30 to 2025-10-06 11:00)

  • Note: Only 2 sessions of intraday prints were provided, so “last 10 days” emphasis is based on today’s 30-min structure plus Friday’s close, not a full 10-day window.
  • Standouts by group (price/volume context):
    • Crypto/data-center miners: Strong momentum and volume expansion. HIVE ripped from 4.70 to 5.46 on heavy turnover with tight consolidation near highs. APLD pushed 7%+ early with a clean range (27.47–29.23) and holding mid-range. These tape dynamics favor short-term continuation.
    • Precious metals/miners: Bid across the complex. JNUG pushed toward 178 with multiple high-of-day retests; MUX trended to 18.82 and held higher lows; IDR powered from 35.8 to 39.4. This cluster strength supports follow-through attempts if the metal bid persists.
    • Defense/Aero: Broadly firm. LMT and NOC gapped and held gains; KTOS popped then faded intraday (watch for reset). Group tilt is constructive with dips getting bought.
    • Semis: Gapped up, then faded-to-flat. ARM, LRCX, ASML couldn’t extend after the open. Near-term suggests digestion rather than immediate breakouts.
    • Cybersecurity: CYBR punched 503 and is coiling just below 500–503. Constructive for a continuation if it reclaims 503.
    • Energy (Refining): MPC steady grind higher with higher lows; rotational flow supportive.
    • Biotech/Pharma: Mixed but selective strength. ASND trended to 212.7 with bull volume; CYTK reclaimed 60 and held; ZVRA broke 10 and consolidated above prior range; KRYS stalled back to 183 area.
    • China/ADR small tech: XNET failed to hold 10 and faded—risk of backfill unless it reclaims 10.
    • Small-cap momentum: ADCT strong morning spike to 4.67 then flagging; UMAC and SGD gave back early pops; TYGO steady upward channel.

Notable near-term patterns:

  • Continuation setups after strong opens with shallow pullbacks: HIVE, ASND, MUX, JNUG, MPC.
  • Coils just below resistance: CYBR ~503, APLD ~29, ZVRA ~10.40.
  • Faders (avoid for long momentum until they reset): KTOS, XNET; semis likely need more base time.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)

  • Most likely to continue higher: HIVE, APLD, ASND, MPC, CYBR, JNUG, MUX, ZVRA, CYTK.
  • Strongest bullish signals today: HIVE (high-volume breakout and tight consolidation near HOD), ASND (trend day with rising highs/lows), JNUG/MUX (group momentum), APLD (range hold with clear pivots), CYBR (coiling under breakout level), MPC (steady accumulation).

Individual Stock Analysis (levels from today’s 30-min/daily aggregate context)

HIVE
finviz dynamic chart for HIVE

  • Supports: 5.39–5.40; 5.10–5.12 gap area; 4.95–5.00.
  • Resistances: 5.46–5.50 (session high/supply); 5.65; 5.85–5.90 (approx 0.5–0.7x today’s range extension).
  • 30-min outlook (2–3 days): Base above 5.40 sets up a push through 5.50 toward 5.65/5.85. Lose 5.39 and it likely backfills 5.10–5.20 before another attempt.
  • Entries: 5.42–5.46 pullback buy; or momentum over 5.50–5.52.
  • Stops: Tight 5.36; swing 5.08.
  • 1–3 day targets: 5.65; 5.85; stretch 6.05 if crypto bid persists.

APLD
finviz dynamic chart for APLD

  • Supports: 28.12; 27.91; 27.47.
  • Resistances: 28.66; 29.00–29.23; 30.00–30.50.
  • 30-min outlook: Hold 28.10–28.30 and grind to 28.66/29.00; a clean break/hold over 29.23 opens 29.80–30.50. Lose 27.90 risks a full range test back toward 27.50s.
  • Entries: 28.10–28.30 higher-low buy; or 29.25 breakout.
  • Stops: Tight 27.88; swing 27.45.
  • 1–3 day targets: 28.95–29.20; 29.80; 30.50.

ASND
finviz dynamic chart for ASND

  • Supports: 208.20–208.40; 207.03; 202.70–203.40.
  • Resistances: 212.69; 215.00; 218.00–219.00.
  • 30-min outlook: As long as price holds above 208, bias is for a 212.7 retest and push toward 215. Failure back below 207 opens a fade to 203–204 demand.
  • Entries: 208.5–209.5 pullback buy; or 212.80 breakout continuation.
  • Stops: Tight 206.80; swing 203.00.
  • 1–3 day targets: 214.5; 216.5; 219–220.

MPC
finviz dynamic chart for MPC

  • Supports: 196.00–196.15; 195.94; 193.60–193.80.
  • Resistances: 197.10; 198.00–198.50; 200.00.
  • 30-min outlook: Accumulation profile favors a drift to 197.1 then 198.5; sustained strength can magnet 200. Lose 195.9 and it likely tests 195–195.3.
  • Entries: 196.0–196.2 pullback; or 197.15 breakout.
  • Stops: Tight 195.50; swing 193.40.
  • 1–3 day targets: 197.10; 198.50; 200.00.

CYBR
finviz dynamic chart for CYBR

  • Supports: 496.30–496.90; 494.10; 490.40.
  • Resistances: 500.00–503.30; 505.00; 510.00.
  • 30-min outlook: Coiling under 503. Above 503, momentum can carry to 505 then 510. Lose 496, expect a check of 494 and possibly 490s.
  • Entries: 497–498 buy-the-dip; or 503.30 break-and-hold.
  • Stops: Tight 493.80; swing 489.80.
  • 1–3 day targets: 503; 506; 510–512.

JNUG
finviz dynamic chart for JNUG

  • Supports: 176.98; 174.35; 173.00.
  • Resistances: 177.90; 180.00; 182.00.
  • 30-min outlook: Gold strength points to continued attempts at 178–180; acceptance above 180 targets 182. Lose 174.3 and a deeper pullback to ~173 likely.
  • Entries: 175.5–176.5 pullback; or 178.00 breakout.
  • Stops: Tight 173.90; swing 172.80.
  • 1–3 day targets: 178.8; 180.5; 182.0.

MUX
finviz dynamic chart for MUX

  • Supports: 18.47–18.50; 18.06; 17.90–18.00.
  • Resistances: 18.71–18.82; 19.00; 19.25.
  • 30-min outlook: Trend intact above 18.45; push through 18.82 likely tags 19.00–19.25. Lose 18.45 puts 18.05–18.10 in play.
  • Entries: 18.45–18.60 pullback; or 18.85 breakout.
  • Stops: Tight 18.29; swing 18.00.
  • 1–3 day targets: 18.90; 19.05; 19.25.

ZVRA
finviz dynamic chart for ZVRA

  • Supports: 10.18–10.22; 9.89–9.90; 9.77.
  • Resistances: 10.40–10.44; 10.60; 11.00.
  • 30-min outlook: Post-break consolidation above 10.20 favors a push through 10.44 toward 10.60; over 10.60 opens 11.00. Lose 10.18 and a gap-fill toward 9.90 is likely.
  • Entries: 10.20–10.25 pullback; or 10.45 breakout.
  • Stops: Tight 10.07; swing 9.85.
  • 1–3 day targets: 10.44; 10.60; 11.00.

CYTK
finviz dynamic chart for CYTK

  • Supports: 60.21–60.27; 59.96–60.00; 59.41.
  • Resistances: 60.58–60.68; 61.00; 61.40–61.50.
  • 30-min outlook: Holding 60 keeps the bias up for a re-test of 60.6–60.7 and a grind to 61+. Lose 60 and it likely revisits 59.4–59.6 demand.
  • Entries: 60.10–60.25 pullback; or 60.70 breakout.
  • Stops: Tight 59.85; swing 59.35.
  • 1–3 day targets: 60.90; 61.20; 61.50.

Additional notes

  • Semis (ARM, LRCX, ASML) show gap-and-fade; bulls likely need basing before fresh legs. Avoid chasing until they reclaim morning highs (ARM 160.25, LRCX 153.70, ASML 1059).
  • KTOS needs to reclaim 100.40/102 to reset its bullish tape; otherwise risk of lower-highs persists.
  • For small caps (ADCT, UMAC, SGD, TYGO), treat breakouts as “day-2” continuation only if morning highs are reclaimed on rising volume, otherwise expect mean reversion.

Risk management

  • Given the short-term momentum focus, favor buying pullbacks at defined supports or breakouts that hold for 15–30 minutes, with stops tucked just below the level that invalidates the setup.
  • If market/sector wind shifts (e.g., metals or crypto retrace), trim targets by 25–35% and tighten stops.
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