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Swing Idea

Continuation Breakout Friday 4PM 1/16/2026

January 16, 2026 4 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (EST range covered)

  • Time window analyzed: 2026-01-15 14:30 to 2026-01-16 16:00 EST using 30-minute bars from your file. Note: The upload does not include 30 trading days (nor 10 days) of data; the commentary emphasizes the most recent intraday development as a proxy for near-term momentum.
  • Standouts: Precious metals miners led with trend-day strength and accelerating volume into the close:
    • Silver/Gold: RGLD, CDE, NGD, AG all pushed higher late with expanding participation, signaling accumulation into the weekend.
  • Mixed to soft:
    • Semis/semicap: FORM, AEHR, MRAM showed constructive closes; WOLF, NVTS and SITM faded late after mid-session pops.
    • Defense/Aero: TDY slightly higher, LHX flat, KTOS steady; AVAV sold off sharply into the close (distribution).
    • Financials/Exchanges: JPM, AXP, CBOE drifted lower late; CME flat-to-up marginally.
    • Industrials/Contractors: PWR, EME, FIX, ITW, CMI, NOVT generally softened into the final hour (risk-off tilt).
    • Transports/Retail/Other: JBHT rebid late, RH resilient, WING strong intraday but cooled; EQIX (REIT) faded. Crypto miners (IREN) volatile and soft late.
  • Pattern takeaway: Broad late-day selling in cyclicals with relative strength concentrated in precious metals miners (RGLD, CDE, NGD, AG). That rotation plus the strong close suggests follow-through potential for metals early next week.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 trading days)

  • Most likely to advance: RGLD, CDE, NGD, AG, FORM, MRAM
  • Strongest bullish signals:

– RGLD, CDE, NGD, AG: Trend up all afternoon with rising volume and closes near session highs.
– FORM: Higher-high close after a strong push, holding most gains.
– MRAM: Closed near highs with steady bid; microcap, but setup is clean.

Individual Stock Analysis and Trade Plans
Note on targets: The file lacks multi-day ATR. I size swing targets using visible supply zones plus an ATR proxy = today’s intraday true range (TR). Stretch targets assume a 1R extension above breakout.

1) RGLD

  • Key support: 263.33; 262.97; 261.74
  • Key resistance: 265.22; 265.48 (HOD); 266.00 (psych)
  • 30-min price action outlook (2–3 days): Look for an early dip toward 263.3–263.6 to be bought; sustained holds above 265.2/265.5 open a push into the 266s. Failure back below 262.9 risks a digestion day.
  • Swing targets (1–3 days):

– T1: 265.50 (break/close above HOD)
– T2: 266.80–267.20 (≈ 0.5–0.7R above)
– T3: 268.8–269.2 (≈ 1R using today’s TR ≈ 3.7)

  • Entry ideas:

– Pullback buy 263.4–263.6
– Or momentum add over 265.5 on volume

  • Stop-loss: 262.85 (tighter); 261.60 (swing/wider under session low)
finviz dynamic chart for RGLD

2) CDE

  • Key support: 22.35; 22.11; 22.05
  • Key resistance: 22.56–22.60 (HOD zone); 22.80; 23.00 (psych)
  • 30-min price action outlook: Expect buy-the-dip interest near 22.1–22.3; a clean push through 22.60 should attract momentum flows toward 22.8–23.00. Lose 22.05 and the move likely pauses.
  • Swing targets:

– T1: 22.60
– T2: 22.80
– T3: 23.00 (stretch/psych; roughly 1R above)

  • Entry ideas:

– Pullback buy 22.15–22.25
– Breakout add >22.60 on expanding volume

  • Stop-loss: 21.98 (below demand shelf)
finviz dynamic chart for CDE

3) NGD

  • Key support: 10.97; 10.87; 10.85
  • Key resistance: 11.07–11.09 (HOD zone); 11.15; 11.25
  • 30-min price action outlook: Higher-low pullback toward 10.90–10.97 sets up a push back at 11.07–11.09. A firm reclaim/close above 11.10 projects continuation into mid-11s.
  • Swing targets:

– T1: 11.10
– T2: 11.25
– T3: 11.40 (≈ 1R extension)

  • Entry ideas:

– Pullback buy 10.92–10.98
– Breakout add >11.10

  • Stop-loss: 10.84
finviz dynamic chart for NGD

4) AG

  • Key support: 21.14; 21.03; 20.88
  • Key resistance: 21.28; 21.40; 21.50–21.54 (HOD zone)
  • 30-min price action outlook: Momentum continuation favored if price holds above 21.14–21.20. Break and sustain above 21.40 sets up a retest of 21.50–21.54; a strong push could magnet 22.00 later.
  • Swing targets:

– T1: 21.40
– T2: 21.50–21.54
– T3: 21.90–22.00 (stretch ≈ 1R)

  • Entry ideas:

– Pullback buy 21.10–21.20
– Breakout add >21.40

  • Stop-loss: 20.98 (beneath shelf)
finviz dynamic chart for AG

5) FORM

  • Key support: 78.03; 77.61; 77.13
  • Key resistance: 78.34; 78.56 (HOD); 79.00
  • 30-min price action outlook: Preference to buy dips into 77.7–78.0 with risk defined. A close through 78.56 opens 79+; a consolidation day would likely hold above 77.6.
  • Swing targets:

– T1: 78.56
– T2: 79.00
– T3: 80.0–80.3 (≈ 1R using today’s TR ≈ 1.6–1.7)

  • Entry ideas:

– Pullback buy 77.70–77.95
– Breakout add >78.60 with volume

  • Stop-loss: 77.45 (beneath demand box)
finviz dynamic chart for FORM

6) MRAM

  • Key support: 13.10; 13.05; 12.98
  • Key resistance: 13.27 (HOD); 13.30; 13.40
  • 30-min price action outlook: Microcap with momentum; look for a shallow dip toward 13.05–13.12 to hold; a push through 13.27/13.30 likely squeezes to mid-13.5s.
  • Swing targets:

– T1: 13.30–13.35
– T2: 13.55–13.60 (≈ 1R using today’s TR ≈ 0.28–0.30)
– T3: 13.80 (stretch)

  • Entry ideas:

– Pullback buy 13.06–13.12
– Breakout add >13.30

  • Stop-loss: 12.94
finviz dynamic chart for MRAM

Quick risk notes

  • The provided data is limited to 1–2 sessions of intraday bars; I used intraday true range as an ATR proxy to frame risk/reward. If you have full 30-day data, we can refine ATR, higher-timeframe S/R, and conviction.
  • Manage position size accordingly; metals-led strength can reverse quickly if the commodity bid fades.
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