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Anticipation Breakout Monday 12/01/2025

December 1, 2025 4 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (EST window reviewed: 2025-12-01 12:00–15:30)

Context note: The tape you provided is intraday for today (and a few sparse prints prior), not a full 30-day history. The comments below emphasize today’s 30-min action and relative strength/weakness that typically drives 1–3 day momentum swings.

  • Index/Factor:
    • SPY/VOO/IVV and QQQ drifted modestly lower after 13:30, unable to reclaim VWAP into the close. Small caps (IWO) and mid caps (MDY) also faded. Levered proxies (SPXL, SOXL, BULZ) mirrored that soft risk tone.
  • Semiconductors/Hardware:
    • SMH/SOXX slipped all afternoon. Yet a few single names showed relative strength or late-day resilience: AMD closed firm near session highs; WDC and STX reclaimed intraday dips; AMAT held steady while KLAC/LRCX were heavier. This “mixed but with pockets of relative strength” favors selective long swings in leaders that closed well.
  • Tech/Software and Internet:
    • TSLA bid up into the bell (closed near HOD); AAPL small uptick; AMZN mixed. NET held up; PSTG reclaimed highs late. CVNA stabilized after midday weakness. RDDT faded intra-day.
  • Financials:
    • GS, JPM eased; V flat. Mortgages (RKT, UWMC) showed notable relative strength with steady higher highs into the close despite housing/homebuilders softness.
  • Health Care/Biotech/MedTech:
    • UNH, HUM, ELV soft. Select med-tech names diverged positively: TMDX pushed to new intraday highs late; INSP had a strong 15:00 bar but gave some back; BIIB was range-bound.
  • Materials/Miners:
    • Gold/silver miners ETFs (GDXJ, SILJ, SIL) and components (AEM, RGLD, NG, CDE) were mostly flat-to-softer; not much risk appetite there intra-day.
  • Industrials/Builders:
    • ETN, PH, TT, URI, CAT, and homebuilders (PHM, LEN, DHI; NAIL ETF) trended lower most of the afternoon—risk appetite weak in this complex today.

Notable short-term patterns:
– Relative-strength closes despite weak indices: TSLA, AMD, PSTG, TMDX, RKT, UWMC.
– “Late-day push with volume” tends to see 1–2 follow-through sessions in momentum markets, especially when pullbacks are shallow and prior resistance flips to support during the last hour.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)

Likely to push higher (bullish setups stood out vs peers and indices):
– TSLA – closed near HOD with higher lows and rising 30-min volume into the bell.
– AMD – semi sector was soft, but AMD closed firm; relative strength vs SOXX/SMH.
– PSTG – reclaimed highs late and held them; constructive 30-min structure.
– TMDX – clean late-day breakout continuation with strong close.
– RKT – steady trend day higher with expanding volume.
– UWMC – sympathy to RKT; strong late-day ramp above intraday resistance.

Strongest bullish tells: TSLA, TMDX, RKT (cleanest momentum + closes near highs).

Individual Stock Analysis (1–3 day swing plans, based on today’s 30-min tape)

1) TSLA
– Key supports: 428.5, 427.5, 426.3
– Key resistances: 430.0, 432.0, 435.0
– Price action expectations (2–3 days): Look for a gap-hold or small dip-and-rip through 430. Above 432 opens a momentum run to mid-430s.
– Targets (1–3 day): 431.5, 434.5, 438.0 (roughly 0.5–2.0% moves)
– Entry: 427.8–428.6 on a controlled dip or 430.1–430.5 on breakout continuation
– Stop: 425.9 (below the 14:30 pivot/low zone)
– finviz dynamic chart for TSLA

2) AMD
– Key supports: 219.3, 218.9, 218.3
– Key resistances: 221.0, 222.0, 224.0
– Price action expectations: If futures stabilize, AMD’s relative strength can push through 221–222. Watch for a quick retest of 219.5 holding.
– Targets: 221.8, 223.5, 225.5
– Entry: 219.5–219.8 pullback or 221.1–221.3 breakout
– Stop: 218.4
– finviz dynamic chart for AMD

3) PSTG
– Key supports: 87.50, 87.20, 86.90
– Key resistances: 88.00, 88.50, 89.50
– Price action expectations: Constructive late-day hold; look for an early push through 88 with shallow back-tests.
– Targets: 88.40, 89.20, 90.50
– Entry: 87.55–87.75 on dip or 88.05–88.15 on continuation
– Stop: 86.85
– finviz dynamic chart for PSTG

4) TMDX
– Key supports: 150.6, 149.9, 149.2
– Key resistances: 152.0, 153.2, 155.0
– Price action expectations: Late-day momentum breakout candidate; as long as 150.6 holds on dips, expect push toward 153–155.
– Targets: 152.8, 154.8, 157.0
– Entry: 150.6–151.1 pullback or 152.1–152.4 breakout
– Stop: 149.2
– finviz dynamic chart for TMDX

5) RKT
– Key supports: 20.00, 19.85, 19.75
– Key resistances: 20.50, 20.80, 21.20
– Price action expectations: Trend up day with volume; homebuilders were soft but originators outperformed. Look for 20.50 magnet if 20.00 holds.
– Targets: 20.55, 20.95, 21.30
– Entry: 20.05–20.15 on dip or 20.38–20.42 on breakout
– Stop: 19.75
– finviz dynamic chart for RKT

6) UWMC
– Key supports: 5.80, 5.75, 5.70
– Key resistances: 5.90, 5.95, 6.05
– Price action expectations: Sympathy to RKT; late-day bid. If 5.80 holds, a grind to 5.95–6.05 is likely.
– Targets: 5.95, 6.05, 6.20
– Entry: 5.80–5.86 on dip or 5.91–5.93 on breakout
– Stop: 5.70
– finviz dynamic chart for UWMC

Risk notes and execution
– Broader market tone was soft; lean lighter size on breakouts, add on successful back-tests of prior resistance turned support.
– If SPY/QQQ gap down, prefer dip entries at support rather than chasing breakouts.
– Use intraday VWAP and prior 30-min highs/lows to refine entries.

If you want, I can extend this with full 30-day levels and ATRs when you provide the daily timeframes.

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