Overall Sector and Industry Analysis
Range analyzed (EST): 2025-09-26 13:30–16:00, with a few additional prints on 2025-09-25 (WTMA). The dataset does not include full 30-day histories, so the swing view below relies on the most recent intraday behavior, relative strength into the close, and sector clustering.
- Managed Care/Healthcare Services (HUM, ELV, UNH, MOH, UHS, HCA): Defensive bid in the afternoon. ELV and HUM closed near session highs on steady volume; UNH held firm; MOH modestly higher; HCA faded late. Takeaway: Managed care showed quiet accumulation; hospital operators mixed. Tickers referenced: ELV, HUM, UNH, MOH, HCA, UHS.
- Defense/Aerospace and related Industrials (AVAV, NOC, TDG, AXON): Clear relative strength in drones (AVAV) and public safety tech (AXON); NOC firm and grinding up; TDG lagged. Takeaway: Quality bid to high-momentum names; dips have been bought. Tickers: AVAV, AXON, NOC, TDG.
- Semiconductors (TSM, MRVL, KLAC, TER): Consolidation to slight softness into the close (TSM, MRVL), with KLAC/TER flat. Takeaway: Short-term digestion; not the leadership today. Tickers: TSM, MRVL, KLAC, TER.
- Energy/Refining and Storage (VLO, MPC, FLNC, SGML, SLI, MVST): Refiners modestly higher (VLO, MPC); grid/storage FLNC faded late; lithium mixed-to-positive (SGML > SLI ≈ flat; MVST flat). Takeaway: Selective strength in refiners and some lithium small/mid caps. Tickers: VLO, MPC, FLNC, SGML, SLI, MVST.
- Travel/Discretionary (BKNG, ULTA): BKNG steady; ULTA strong push into the close. Takeaway: ULTA stands out with momentum. Tickers: BKNG, ULTA.
- China ADR (BABA): Faded into the close. Takeaway: No bullish read-through yet. Ticker: BABA.
- Micro/small-cap momentum (FLUX, NPWR, ZVRA, SGD, GLTO, PRAX): Selective breakouts with rising afternoon volume (FLUX, NPWR, ZVRA, SGD). Liquidity varies; manage risk.
Noticeable patterns:
– Afternoon “higher-low to higher-high” structures with increasing volume in AVAV, AXON, ULTA, ELV, NOC, FLUX, NPWR, ZVRA suggest continuation setups.
– Semis broadly paused; any upside likely requires early-session reclaim of intra-day supply.
Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)
Most likely to advance: AXON, AVAV, ULTA, NOC, MSCI, ELV, NPWR, FLUX, ZVRA, SGML.
Strongest bullish signals today: AXON, AVAV, ULTA, NPWR, FLUX.
Individual Stock Analysis (levels, 30-min path, entries, stops, targets)
Note: Support/resistance derived from today’s intraday pivots, round-number zones, and recent supply/demand behavior. ATR-based targets are approximations typical for these price tiers.
1) AXON (closed 710.20)
Why bullish: Strong higher-high sequence into close; buyers defended 707–709 multiple times; volume expanded on pushes.
– Supports: 709.4, 705.5, 703.6
– Resistances: 712.6, 715.0, 722.0
– 30-min path (2–3 days): Early dip buy 707–709, push through 712.6 opens 715 then 722. Failure below 703.6 delays.
– Entry: 707.5–709.5 on pullback; or 712.8–713.5 break-and-hold.
– Stop: 701.9 (beneath 703–705 shelf).
– Targets (1–3 day): 715, 722, stretch 730.
2) AVAV (closed 302.24)
Why bullish: Persistent trend, closing near highs; drone/defense group bid.
– Supports: 301.1, 299.3, 297.6
– Resistances: 303.0, 305.0, 308.0
– 30-min path: Expect test of 301–302, then 303/305; sustained above 305 opens 308–312.
– Entry: 299.8–301.5 on dip; or 303.1+ momentum add.
– Stop: 297.2.
– Targets: 305, 308, 312.
3) ULTA (closed 550.78)
Why bullish: Strong afternoon drive, higher highs, discretionary strength.
– Supports: 548.0, 545.6, 542.0
– Resistances: 552.0, 556.0, 560.0
– 30-min path: Dip to 548–549 gets bought; through 552 triggers 556 then 560.
– Entry: 547.8–549.3; or reclaim/hold above 552.
– Stop: 543.8.
– Targets: 556, 560, 566.
4) NOC (closed 593.70)
Why bullish: Steady grind up; defense complex bid; closed strong.
– Supports: 592.5, 591.3, 590.0
– Resistances: 594.1, 596.5, 600.0
– 30-min path: Tight flag under 594; breakout toward 596–600 if 592 holds.
– Entry: 592.6–593.2; or 594.3–594.8 break.
– Stop: 589.9.
– Targets: 596.5, 600, 602.
5) MSCI (closed 568.06)
Why bullish: Bought late, holding upper intraday range; stable bid across quality factor names.
– Supports: 566.4, 565.6, 564.1
– Resistances: 568.1, 570.0, 573.0
– 30-min path: Hold above 566.5 → probe 570; sustain >570 unlocks 573–576.
– Entry: 566.6–567.2; or 570 break retest.
– Stop: 564.0.
– Targets: 570, 573, 576.
6) ELV (closed 319.60)
Why bullish: Managed care bid; stair-step higher into close on rising volume.
– Supports: 319.1, 318.7, 318.4
– Resistances: 320.0, 321.5, 323.0
– 30-min path: Tight consolidation 319–320; breakout toward 321.5 then 323 if 318.7 holds.
– Entry: 319.1–319.6; or 320.1–320.5 after breakout retest.
– Stop: 317.8.
– Targets: 321.5, 323.0, 325.0.
7) NPWR (closed 3.04)
Why bullish: Clean intraday uptrend with higher lows and higher highs; closing push.
– Supports: 3.00, 2.98, 2.96
– Resistances: 3.06, 3.12, 3.20
– 30-min path: Early test 3.00–3.02; reclaim 3.06 → 3.12; momentum can stretch 3.20–3.30 if volume persists.
– Entry: 3.00–3.02 pullback; or 3.07–3.09 breakout.
– Stop: 2.94.
– Targets: 3.12, 3.20, 3.30.
8) FLUX (closed 3.665)
Why bullish: Strong mid/late-day expansion candles and volume; constructive pullback-and-go behavior.
– Supports: 3.58, 3.50, 3.41
– Resistances: 3.70, 3.85, 4.00
– 30-min path: Flag under 3.70; break >3.70 → 3.85; if momentum/volume continues, 4.00 test.
– Entry: 3.58–3.62; or 3.71–3.74 on breakout/hold.
– Stop: 3.45.
– Targets: 3.85, 4.00, 4.20 (stretch).
9) ZVRA (closed 9.765)
Why bullish: Consistent higher highs/lows through the afternoon; closes strong.
– Supports: 9.72, 9.69, 9.60
– Resistances: 9.80, 10.00, 10.30
– 30-min path: Early dip 9.70–9.75 likely bought; over 9.80 → 10.00; momentum squeeze possible to 10.30.
– Entry: 9.70–9.76; or 9.81–9.85 break.
– Stop: 9.55.
– Targets: 10.00, 10.30, 10.60 (stretch).
10) SGML (closed 7.005)
Why bullish: Lithium name with afternoon lift and closes near range highs vs peers; constructive higher-low sequence.
– Supports: 6.99, 6.97, 6.93
– Resistances: 7.06, 7.15, 7.30
– 30-min path: Hold >6.97; reclaim/hold over 7.06 opens 7.15 then 7.30 if lithium sentiment stays firm.
– Entry: 6.98–7.02; or 7.07–7.10 breakout/hold.
– Stop: 6.88.
– Targets: 7.15, 7.30, 7.45.
Additional quick reads (monitor for confirmation)
– HUM: Quiet strength; over 254.8 opens 255.5–257. Support 253.1–253.6.
– VLO/MPC: Refiners bid; buy dips vs 175 (VLO) / 198 (MPC) for incremental push.
– ULTA already covered as a leader within discretionary.
Risk notes
– Many small caps (FLUX, NPWR, ZVRA, SGML) are momentum-sensitive and liquidity can change quickly; respect stops.
– If semis (TSM/MRVL/KLAC/TER) reclaim and lead, it could overshadow defensives; reassess leadership on open next session.
– A gap open above first resistance: wait for a 5–15 min retest to avoid buying exhaustion. A gap down into first support: look for sellers to exhaust before entering (hammer/engulfing on 5–15 min).
This column emphasizes 1–5 day momentum. If any of the noted supports break on volume, invalidate the long bias and reassess the setup.