Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (window analyzed: 2026-02-04 14:00–19:30 EST; mix of late-regular and after-hours prints)
- Transports/LTL and freight led risk-on into the bell.
- XPO, ODFL, SAIA ramped on rising 15:30 volume and closed near highs; JBHT, ARCB, R also firm. This is classic momentum continuation behavior in the group after afternoon range expansion.
- Industrials/Machinery broadly constructive, with select names outperforming.
- AIT closed at session highs; LECO strong trend with only a modest final-bar fade. PH firm though it cooled late; ETN steady AH. ITW and CMI faded into the close (less favorable momentum follow-through).
- Materials/Chemicals positive to mixed.
- STLD printed a strong push to 199+ and closed near HOD; SHW firm; APD and LIN had steady grinds higher; MLM pushed then faded.
- Energy refined products constructive.
- MPC tested 197.6 and held most gains with heavy 15:30 volume—setups for continuation if crude/refining cracks cooperate.
- Semis/Tech mixed but with notable outlier strength.
- MPWR showed notable after-hours bids up to 1156.9 versus a 1136.8 close—potential catalyst for a gap/continuation. STX and “SNDK” (dataset proxy) were choppy with mild upward bias; TXN/SLAB illiquid AH.
- Financials mixed.
- AMP held above 545; CACC broke to 507s. KNSL/CB faded; LPLA recovered late. Group not as clean as industrials/transports.
- Consumer discretionary lagged.
- ULTA and COLM faded; travel/airlines were mostly flat to soft AH (RCL, LUV, JBLU).
Noticeable pattern: rotation into industrials and transports late in the session with broad participation and rising closing-volume spikes—often a 1–3 day momentum tailwind for the group (XPO, ODFL, SAIA, STLD, AIT).
Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 sessions)
Most likely to continue higher (strongest momentum signals):
– XPO, ODFL, SAIA (Transports/LTL) — trend day closes near HOD with volume.
– STLD (Steel) — strong range expansion; near round-number magnet at 200.
– AIT (Industrial distribution) — late-day breakout and close on highs.
– APD (Industrial gases) — steady grind and firm close.
– MPWR (Semis) — significant AH strength vs RTH close.
– MPC (Refining) — heavy buy flows on the 15:30 bar; coiled just under HOD.
Secondary watchlist for upside: JBHT, LECO.
Individual Stock Analysis, Levels, and 30-minute Path Scenarios
(ATR guidance uses today’s high–low range as a short-term proxy; targets align with nearby resistance and a 1–2x that range over 1–3 days.)
1) XPO
– Structure: Strong trend afternoon; close near HOD on rising volume suggests continuation.
– Key supports: 177.60; 176.70; 175.00.
– Key resistances: 179.85 (HOD); 181.00; 183.00.
– 30-min outlook (2–3 days):
– Base case: Early test of 180–181, brief pullback to 178–178.5, then push toward 182.5–183 by Day 2.
– If weak: Range 176.7–179.5; momentum thesis delayed but intact above 175.
– 1–3 day targets: 180.8; 182.5–183.2.
– Entry ideas: 177.8–178.3 on a dip or 180.1–180.4 on a breakout retest.
– Stop-loss: 176.4 (beneath the 15:00 pivot); hard stop 174.9 if wider risk needed.
2) ODFL
– Structure: HOD close with volume surge—classic continuation setup.
– Key supports: 207.10; 206.40; 205.80.
– Key resistances: 208.74 (HOD); 209.50; 211.00.
– 30-min outlook:
– Base case: Hold 207–207.3 on early dip, reclaim 208.7 for push to 209.8–210.6; Day 2 extension 211–212 if group stays bid.
– If weak: Backfill 206.4–205.8, then reattempt 208 later.
– 1–3 day targets: 209.8; 211.2.
– Entry ideas: 206.8–207.3 pullback buy or 209.0 breakout retest.
– Stop-loss: 205.7 (below higher low structure).
3) SAIA
– Structure: Closed just under HOD; strong trend with higher lows through the afternoon.
– Key supports: 404.5; 401.7; 399.6.
– Key resistances: 406.2 (HOD); 409–410; 415.
– 30-min outlook:
– Base case: Early probe of 406–407, shallow dip to 404–405, then a push toward 409–410; Day 2: 412–415 possible if transports continue to lead.
– If weak: 401.7 test; holds above 399.6 keeps the long intact.
– 1–3 day targets: 408.5; 412–414.5.
– Entry ideas: 402.5–404.5 on dip; or 406.5–407 on breakout retest.
– Stop-loss: 399.0 (beneath demand zone).
4) STLD
– Structure: Strong push and close near highs; round-number magnet at 200.
– Key supports: 197.06; 196.20; 194.84.
– Key resistances: 199.10 (IHOD); 200.00; 202.00.
– 30-min outlook:
– Base case: Tight coil under 199–199.3 then breakout through 200 to 201.5–202; Day 2: hold above 199.5 for continuation.
– If weak: Backfill 196.8–197.1 and remount later.
– 1–3 day targets: 199.9–200.2; 201.8–202.2.
– Entry ideas: 197.2–197.6 pullback; or 199.2–199.5 breakout retest.
– Stop-loss: 196.0.
5) AIT
– Structure: Persistent afternoon strength; AH print at highs.
– Key supports: 287.6; 286.45; 285.30.
– Key resistances: 290.10–290.25; 292.00; 295.00.
– 30-min outlook:
– Base case: Early check of 289.5–290.3, shallow dip 288–288.5, then drive to 291.5–292.5; Day 2: 294–295 achievable if industrials keep leading.
– If weak: 286.5 test holds, then stair-step higher later.
– 1–3 day targets: 291.5; 294.0–295.0.
– Entry ideas: 286.8–287.8 on dip; or 290.4 breakout retest.
– Stop-loss: 285.2.
6) APD
– Structure: Slow, steady grind; closed near highs, indicating accumulation.
– Key supports: 285.50; 284.75; 284.61.
– Key resistances: 286.71 (HOD); 288.00; 289.5–290.0.
– 30-min outlook:
– Base case: Hold above 285.8–286.0; push through 286.7 to 287.7–288.4; Day 2 test of 289.5–290.
– If weak: 284.7–285.0 retest, then reclaim.
– 1–3 day targets: 287.7; 289.8.
– Entry ideas: 285.6–286.0 on dip; or 286.8 breakout retest.
– Stop-loss: 284.5.
7) MPWR
– Structure: Notable after-hours strength (1150–1156.9) versus RTH close (1136.8) hints at a gap-and-go setup if futures cooperate.
– Key supports: 1145.0; 1140.0; 1136.8.
– Key resistances: 1150.0; 1156.9; 1165.0.
– 30-min outlook:
– Base case: Gap hold above 1145, early push to 1156–1158; brief flag then 1163–1165 by Day 2; Day 3 risk to 1175–1180 if semis bid.
– If weak: Backfill to 1140–1143; must hold 1136.8 to keep setup clean.
– 1–3 day targets: 1156; 1165–1178.
– Entry ideas: 1142–1147 on opening dip; or 1150–1151 breakout retest.
– Stop-loss: 1133.
8) MPC
– Structure: Heavy buying on the 15:30 bar and a tight close under HOD—often resolves higher within 1–2 sessions.
– Key supports: 195.28; 194.74; 194.00.
– Key resistances: 196.19; 197.58–197.61; 199.00.
– 30-min outlook:
– Base case: Hold 195.5–195.9, break 196.2 to retest 197.6; Day 2 extension toward 198.5–199 if energy stays firm.
– If weak: Probe 194.7–195.0 and remount later.
– 1–3 day targets: 197.0; 198.5–199.0.
– Entry ideas: 195.4–195.8 on dip; or 196.3 breakout retest.
– Stop-loss: 194.6.
Notes and risk management
– Many of these setups are late-day continuation patterns. Optimal entries are often on the first pullback toward prior 30-minute pivots/VWAP rather than chasing the opening print.
– If the broader tape risk-off, favor transports that hold their rising 30-minute MAs and respect the nearest support; cut losers quickly if supports break on expanding volume.
– Scale targets: take partials at T1 near first resistance; trail to T2 using prior 30-min higher lows.
If you want, I can compute precise VWAP/pivot bands and an estimated ATR from a fuller 10–30 day history once that data is available and refine the targets accordingly.