Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (EST window analyzed: 2025-12-03 13:00 to 19:30)
Scope note: The data provided covers the afternoon/evening of Dec 3rd (intraday and after-hours). I’ve emphasized the most recent 10-day context through sector proxies present in your file (e.g., SMH/SOXX/VGT for tech/semis; JNUG/GDXU/AGQ for metals; select leaders in retail/biotech) and today’s 30-minute development.
- Semiconductors and equipment (SMH, SOXX, SOXL; KLAC, ASML, MRVL, TER, NVMI, COHR, MPWR, MCHP, TXN, INTC, AMAT, ADI, ONTO, SITM):
- Tape today: mixed-to-firm into the close/after-hours. KLAC firmed into 1212.8, NVMI/TER showed strength into the RTH close, MRVL held a grind higher to 99.70. SMH/SOXX were flat-to-slightly up after-hours, indicating digestion rather than distribution. AMAT and TXN eased after-hours (benign pullbacks).
- Takeaway (last 10 days): leadership remains in higher-quality equipment and high-speed connectivity names; rotation within semis shows dips being bought in leaders, while laggards drift. This still favors tactical long setups on strength. Tickers referenced: KLAC, ASML, MRVL, TER, NVMI, SMH, SOXX, SOXL, TXN, AMAT, INTC.
- Metals/Miners (AGQ, JNUG, GDXU; AG):
- Tape today: silver proxies slightly bid (AGQ uptick to 114.17); AG steady just under 15.72; gold-levered funds (JNUG/GDXU) mostly stable.
- Takeaway: metals remain constructive but not surging; actionable only on momentum triggers. Tickers referenced: AGQ, JNUG, GDXU, AG.
- Retail/Consumer Discretionary (DKS, ULTA, COST, AEO, TSLA as a discretionary bellwether):
- Tape today: DKS pushed to 228+ into close (breakout flavor), ULTA bid in AH, COST steady near highs; TSLA stair-stepped higher through AH prints (446.97).
- Takeaway: consumer leadership pockets are intact; breakouts are being respected in leaders. Tickers referenced: DKS, ULTA, COST, AEO, TSLA.
- Biotech/Pharma (ALNY, VERA, ARWR, ASTX, TRVI, SVRA, VRCA, CAPR, MBRX):
- Tape today: selective momentum. ALNY ramped with volume into 473s, VERA held near highs with heavy RTH volume earlier, ASTX trended from 34.9 to 35.7 with persistent bids. Others were quieter.
- Takeaway: high-RS names are getting follow-through; focus on names that showed sustained buying into the close. Tickers referenced: ALNY, VERA, ASTX, ARWR.
- Crypto/Fin (COIN, GS, BLK):
- Tape today: COIN pushed intraday and faded in AH; GS/BLK quiet.
- Takeaway: crypto beta not a clear tailwind today; neutral near-term. Tickers referenced: COIN.
- Industrials/Logistics (CAT, GWW, SAIA, UPSX, AMR):
- Tape today: mostly range-bound to soft closes (SAIA faded to 326; CAT/GWW flat). No broad momentum.
- Takeaway: not the priority long sector right now. Tickers referenced: SAIA, CAT, GWW, AMR.
Noticeable cross-sector pattern: Strength concentrated in selective semiconductor leaders, retail leaders, and a handful of high-RS biotech names. Broader ETFs were consolidating — a constructive backdrop for continuation if indices don’t gap down.
Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)
Likely upside follow-through:
– TSLA – steady higher-lows into AH and strong discretionary relative strength.
– MRVL – held a persistent bid into the evening; 100 break in play.
– KLAC – firm close in a leadership sub-sector (semicap tools).
– DKS – breakout behavior into the close with volume earlier.
– ALNY – strong push with volume late; buyers present above 470.
– ASTX – sustained AH momentum day-of, constructive for a next-day continuation.
Strongest bullish signals: ALNY, DKS, ASTX (momentum plus volume), and KLAC (leadership quality).
Individual Stock Analysis (setups for next 1–3 days)
TSLA
– Daily key levels (zones reflect recent supply/demand and psychological inflections):
– Supports: 445.9–446.3, 444.5, 442.0
– Resistances: 447.0–447.5, 449.5–450.0, 454.5–456.0
– 30-min read and near-term plan:
– Expect an opening range consolidation above 445.9; a clean push through 447.5 can squeeze toward 450.
– If early dip, look for a higher-low hold near 444.5–446.0, then reclaim of 447 for momentum entry.
– 1–3 day targets:
– PT1: 448.5–449.5
– PT2: 451.5–452.5
– PT3: 455.5–456.0 (if broader market supports)
– Entries:
– Momentum: through 447.5 with rising tape/volume.
– Pullback: 445.9–446.3 hold with reversal candle.
– Stop-loss:
– Conservative: below 444.5
– Tighter: below 445.8 if taking a breakout scalp.
MRVL
– Daily key levels:
– Supports: 99.20–99.50, 98.70, 98.00
– Resistances: 100.00, 100.80–101.20, 102.00–102.40
– 30-min read:
– Grind higher into AH; 100.00 is the magnet. A clean build above 99.70 favors a 100+ push and run-stops through 100.8.
– 1–3 day targets:
– PT1: 100.40
– PT2: 101.20
– PT3: 102.00–102.40
– Entries:
– Momentum: 100.05–100.10 break with sustained tape.
– Pullback: 99.30–99.50 reclaim.
– Stop-loss:
– Below 98.70 (structure break); tighter traders below 99.15 on a failed 100 reclaim.
KLAC
– Daily key levels:
– Supports: 1204–1208, 1198, 1188–1190
– Resistances: 1215, 1220–1222, 1230
– 30-min read:
– Strength into close; semicap leadership backdrop. Look for an OR breakout above 1215 or a pullback tag of 1208 that holds.
– 1–3 day targets:
– PT1: 1218
– PT2: 1225
– PT3: 1230–1235 (if semis push as a group)
– Entries:
– Breakout: above 1215 with group confirmation (SMH firm).
– Pullback: 1208–1210 hold and reversal.
– Stop-loss:
– Below 1198 (under last obvious demand).
DKS
– Daily key levels:
– Supports: 226.2, 225.0, 224.0
– Resistances: 228.8–229.0, 231.0–231.8, 233.8–234.5
– 30-min read:
– Breakout-style afternoon. Expect early digestion between 226.5–228.5; a reclaim and hold above 229 can fuel a measured leg higher.
– 1–3 day targets:
– PT1: 229.5
– PT2: 231.8
– PT3: 234.0
– Entries:
– Momentum: through 229.0 with rising volume.
– Pullback: 226.5–227.0 higher-low versus 226.2.
– Stop-loss:
– Below 225.0 (invalidates breakout structure).
ALNY
– Daily key levels:
– Supports: 469.5–471.0, 468.0, 465.0
– Resistances: 475.0, 478.0–479.5, 484.5–485.5
– 30-min read:
– Strong late-day demand. If open holds above 471, look for a push through 475 and continuation to upper 470s.
– 1–3 day targets:
– PT1: 476.0
– PT2: 479.5
– PT3: 485.0
– Entries:
– Momentum: 475.10–475.50 breakout.
– Pullback: 471.5–472.5 bid with reversal confirmation.
– Stop-loss:
– Below 468.0; tighter below 469.3 if trading a 475 breakout.
ASTX
– Daily key levels:
– Supports: 35.20, 34.70, 34.20
– Resistances: 36.00, 36.50, 37.50
– 30-min read:
– Persistent AH bid and higher prints; thin liquidity can accelerate both ways. Look for a quick OR push above 36; failure there likely retests 35.2.
– 1–3 day targets:
– PT1: 36.20
– PT2: 36.90
– PT3: 37.80
– Entries:
– Momentum: 36.05–36.10 break and hold.
– Pullback: 35.20–35.35 hold (avoid if volume dries up).
– Stop-loss:
– Below 34.70 to avoid churn; tight traders below 35.05 on failed breakout.
Process notes and risk management
– The after-hours tone was constructive in targeted names; however, opening gaps can invalidate levels. Use opening range (first 15–30 minutes) to confirm strength.
– Size positions smaller if the broader ETFs (SMH/SOXX/VGT) gap down or trend below prior day value; add on confirmation.
– Consider scaling out at PT1/PT2; trail stops below higher-lows to stay in potential multi-day legs.
If you want me to add metals plays (AG/AGQ) or another semi name (TER/NVMI/COHR) with full levels/plan, say the word and I’ll append them.