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$20+|20%+ Wk Friday 10/03/2025

October 3, 2025 5 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (range reviewed: 2025-10-03 from 13:30 to 19:30 ET)

  • Coverage note: The tape provided is intraday (30-min bars) for a single session. I’m inferring near-term momentum and supply/demand zones from this window, referencing prior obvious round levels and the session’s volatility.
  • Healthcare/Biotech: Large caps were soft-to-flat into the close (AMGN 297–301 fade, BIIB 159–160 churn, REGN 600 hold, LLY pinned ~840, TMO 542–545, DHR 214–216, WAT 328–331, TECH 63, RGEN 148–149). Clinical CROs were also steady to softer (IQV 206–207, ICLR 193–195, MEDP 531–534). Bright spots were selective small/mid-cap momentum: CRML exploded (8.1 → 15.3 intraday spike, closing 13.25), ABCL pushed 5.99 → 6.51 HOD then 6.40 close, IMTX stair-stepped 9.02 → 9.41, PSNL firm 7.30–7.40.
  • Semis/AI hardware: Heavyweights generally faded late (ASML 1037 → 1023–1030, KLAC 1111 → 1101, MPWR 924 → 917, MU ~188 churn, STX 253.3 firm, WDC ~131 stable, WOLF 24.4–24.7 modest bid). Net: mixed with late-session risk trim.
  • Crypto complex: Mixed/sideways with light buyers on some miners. COIN held ~379 then eased to 378.85; MSTR 350–351 chop; miners/infra showed relative resilience: CIFR 14.61 → 14.85 (closing near HOD), CLSK 15.92–15.98 steady, IREN 50.38 → 50.86 grind up, HUT 39.75 → 40.10 pin; ETFs BITX/BITU slightly soft. Tone: neutral-to-constructive.
  • Space/Defense/UAS: Broadly constructive. RDW trended 10.68 → 10.79 into the bell; RKLB stable 55.6–55.8; AVAV illiquid but pinned 374–375; SPIR/PL quiet; ASTS 67.2–67.7 range. Small-cap drones DPRO popped 10.13 → 10.40 then held 10.28.
  • Commodities/Materials/Energy: Coal/metals showed relative strength. METC broke out 38 → 40 (printed 40.25), BTU firm 32.0–32.34, UAMY bid 7.73 → 8.00, LAC faded 9.26 → 9.06, BE flat ~90.
  • Industrials/Capex: Mixed to soft (CAT 501 → 498, URI 986 → 956 late dump). Data-center infra VRT was bid early (161.6 HOD) but settled 160.6.
  • Quantum/“Q” cohort: Mixed with tight ranges and light selling into the close (QBTS 33.0 → 32.9, RGTI 40.17 → 40.15 after dip-recover, QUBT firming 24.52 → 24.82, ARQQ 49.18 → 49.75). No uniform trend, but dips are getting bought selectively.

Notable session themes:

  • Selective small-cap momentum (CRML, USAR, METC, ABCL, UAMY, RDW) on rising volume.
  • Megacap growth/semis eased late; risk rotated to high-beta small caps and some commodity names.
  • Crypto equities stable; slight bid in miners despite flat ETFs.

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)

Most likely upside continuation candidates given momentum, volume expansion, and strong closes:

  • CRML – high-volatility breakout day; watch for continuation after digestion.
  • USAR – trend day with higher highs/higher lows and closing strong.
  • METC – range expansion and close near 40; coal strength theme.
  • ABCL – late-session push to new highs with volume; potential follow-through.
  • UAMY – steady ladder higher with rising volume into a round-number magnet (8.00).
  • RDW – persistent uptrend across bars, closing near HOD.

Secondary watchlist (constructive but less conviction): CIFR, IREN, IMTX, QUBT, RKLB.

Individual Stock Analysis (setups for the next 1–3 days)

CRML

  • Setup: Breakout and high volume expansion (8.05 → 15.27 HOD, close 13.25). Expect a volatile digestion/flag; continuation if higher low forms above 12–13.
  • Support (daily zones from session): 13.00, 11.30–11.36, 8.05.
  • Resistance: 14.43, 15.27, 16.00.
  • 30-min playbook (2–3 days):

– Bull path: Hold 12.9–13.1 on dips → push 14.4 → 15.3; sustained above 15.3 opens 16.0–16.8.
– Bear path: Lose 12.9 → test 11.3; failure there risks a gap-fill toward 10–9s.

  • Targets (1–3 day swing): PT1 14.40–14.60; PT2 15.20–15.30; stretch 16.00–16.80 (volatility is elevated; scale).
  • Entries: 13.05–13.20 pullback buy; or 14.45–14.55 breakout through prior H.
  • Stop-loss: Below 12.80 for pullback entry; below 14.10 for breakout entry (or tighter: last 30-min higher low).
  • finviz dynamic chart for CRML

USAR

  • Setup: Trend day with increasing volume; closed near highs (25.71 L → 27.02 H zone).
  • Support: 26.26, 25.95, 25.71.
  • Resistance: 27.02, 27.50, 28.00.
  • 30-min playbook:

– Bull path: Hold 26.20–26.30 → reclaim 26.90–27.02 → 27.50; sustained momentum targets 28.00.
– Pullback acceptable to 25.95 if volume dries up, then curl.

  • Targets: PT1 27.00; PT2 27.50; stretch 28.00–28.30.
  • Entries: 26.25–26.35 first pullback; or 27.05 breakout.
  • Stop-loss: 25.88–25.95 zone (beneath VWAP/pullback low).
  • finviz dynamic chart for USAR

METC

  • Setup: Range expansion and close at 40.00 after 40.25 print; coal/materials bid.
  • Support: 39.50, 38.35–38.05, 37.67.
  • Resistance: 40.25, 41.00, 42.00.
  • 30-min playbook:

– Bull path: Hold 39.5–40.0 → take out 40.25 → 41.00; strong tape could tag 42.00.
– If 39.5 fails, expect a retest of 38.3–38.1 for a higher low.

  • Targets: PT1 40.25–40.40; PT2 41.00; stretch 42.00.
  • Entries: 39.60–39.90 pullback buy; or 40.30 break.
  • Stop-loss: 38.95 for pullback entry; 39.85 for breakout entry (tight).
  • finviz dynamic chart for METC

ABCL

  • Setup: Late-session momentum (5.99 → 6.51 HOD, close 6.40); watch day-2 continuation.
  • Support: 6.20, 6.08–6.10, 5.99.
  • Resistance: 6.40, 6.51, 6.60–6.70.
  • 30-min playbook:

– Bull path: Hold 6.20–6.25 → reclaim/hold above 6.40 → 6.51; sustained above 6.51 opens 6.70.
– If 6.20 breaks, look for 6.08 backtest and basing.

  • Targets: PT1 6.51; PT2 6.65–6.70; stretch 6.85–7.00.
  • Entries: 6.22–6.28 pullback; or 6.52 breakout.
  • Stop-loss: 6.10 for pullback; 6.39 for breakout.
  • finviz dynamic chart for ABCL

UAMY

  • Setup: Stair-step advance with rising volume, magneted to 8.00.
  • Support: 7.87, 7.80, 7.74.
  • Resistance: 8.00–8.01, 8.10, 8.25.
  • 30-min playbook:

– Bull path: Hold 7.87–7.90 → firm above 8.00 → push 8.10; continuation can reach 8.25.
– If 7.87 breaks, expect 7.80 test for higher low.

  • Targets: PT1 8.10; PT2 8.20–8.25; stretch 8.35.
  • Entries: 7.88–7.92 pullback; or 8.03 breakout and hold.
  • Stop-loss: 7.79–7.80.
  • finviz dynamic chart for UAMY

RDW

  • Setup: Clean intraday uptrend (10.68 L → 10.79 close near HOD). Momentum continuation candidate.
  • Support: 10.70–10.72, 10.68, 10.65.
  • Resistance: 10.80, 10.85, 11.00.
  • 30-min playbook:

– Bull path: Buy dips to 10.70–10.72; if buyers hold VWAP, push through 10.80 → 10.85; strong tape can probe 11.00.
– Loss of 10.65 likely forces a broader consolidation.

  • Targets: PT1 10.85; PT2 10.95; stretch 11.00–11.10.
  • Entries: 10.71–10.73 pullback; or 10.81–10.83 breakout.
  • Stop-loss: 10.63–10.65.
  • finviz dynamic chart for RDW

Notes on risk and execution

  • Many of these are small/mid caps with elevated intraday volatility (especially CRML). Size down, use staggered entries, and respect stops.
  • If the broader market/semis stay soft, expect breakout failure risk to be higher; prioritize names with clear volume confirmation and closes near highs (USAR, METC, ABCL, RDW).
  • For targets, I used nearby resistance and the session’s realized range as a proxy for 1–3 day ATR; adjust if day-2 volatility contracts or expands.
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