20-Week Breakout Analysis — 2026-10-23

Overview

The 20-Week Breakout scan registered 179 total signals on 2026-10-23, split between 91 bullish (dollar_20_wk + pct_20_wk) and 88 bearish (dollar_d20_wk + pct_d20_wk) setups. That produces a near-even 50.8% bullish / 49.2% bearish split — a Balanced reading that signals mixed institutional positioning rather than outright accumulation or distribution.

This aligns with the current SA Regime of Cautious, where breadth sits at just 43.4% of stocks above their 40-week SMA. Leading sectors by ATR% are defensive — Utilities (2.4%), Health Care (2.3%), Consumer Staples (2.2%) — while Financials (-1.4%), Communication Services (-1.6%), and Technology (-2.0%) lag. Notably, several bullish breakouts are occurring in Software names despite Technology’s weak sector ATR%, suggesting selective strength within beaten-down tech rather than broad sector rotation.

Quality Score: 3/5. In a Cautious regime, only the highest-conviction setups warrant top marks. The balanced bullish/bearish ratio, lack of visible institutional fund accumulation data across all scanned names, and defensive sector leadership argue for selectivity over aggression. Breakouts in MEDP (Health Care) carry a regime-aligned edge; others require tighter risk management.

Top 5 Bullish Picks

PAYC ($274.60) — SOFTWARE / Comp Sftwr - Enterprise

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Weekly Momentum: PAYC posted the highest ATR Multiple (6.77) in today’s scan, with ADR% of 3.1% and LOD Risk ATR% of 72.7%, indicating an aggressive dollar breakout. The stock sits just 0.5% below its 52-week high while up 161.8% from its 52-week low, confirming a strong uptrend continuation.

Level	Price
Entry/Close	$274.60
Risk (2x ATR)	$259.46
Target (2x ATR)	$289.74

Institutional Interest: 0 funds tracked, funds % increase undefined. Bucket: funds_500.

ALLE ($179.12) — BUSINS SVC / Security/Sfty

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Weekly Momentum: ALLE broke out with an ATR Multiple of 5.88 on elevated relative volume (1.4x average), trading just 2.2% off its 52-week high and up 43.3% from its low — a classic dollar-based breakout confirmed by volume (1.74M vs 1.26M avg).

Level	Price
Entry/Close	$179.12
Risk (2x ATR)	$170.28
Target (2x ATR)	$187.96

Institutional Interest: 0 funds tracked, funds % increase undefined. Bucket: funds_1000.

ULTA ($624.46) — RETAIL / Retail - Specialty

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Weekly Momentum: ULTA’s ATR Multiple of 4.95 reflects a sharp dollar move, up 40.8% from its 52-week low. LOD Risk ATR% of 33.8% suggests a controlled breakout, though relative volume of 1.0x is unremarkable versus peers.

Level	Price
Entry/Close	$624.46
Risk (2x ATR)	$591.84
Target (2x ATR)	$657.08

Institutional Interest: 0 funds tracked, funds % increase undefined. Bucket: funds_1000.

LMT ($604.47) — AEROSPACE/DEFENSE

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Weekly Momentum: LMT’s ATR Multiple of 4.46 came with a strong 1.5x relative volume surge (1.8M vs 1.21M avg), the largest volume outperformance among top bullish names. Up 38.2% from its 52-week low but still 12.7% below its high, leaving room for continuation.

Level	Price
Entry/Close	$604.47
Risk (2x ATR)	$572.17
Target (2x ATR)	$636.77

Institutional Interest: 0 funds tracked, funds % increase undefined. Bucket: funds_1000.

CVLT ($169.37) — SOFTWARE / Computer Sftwr-Database

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Weekly Momentum: CVLT combined an ATR Multiple of 4.36 with the highest ADR% (3.9%) among the top five, and a notable 136.1% gain from its 52-week low. Volume ran 1.5x average, reinforcing conviction behind the breakout.

Level	Price
Entry/Close	$169.37
Risk (2x ATR)	$156.49
Target (2x ATR)	$182.25

Institutional Interest: 0 funds tracked, funds % increase undefined. Bucket: funds_500.

Bearish Alerts

LRCX (-3.66 ATR Multiple) leads the bearish list, confirming semiconductor-equipment weakness in line with Technology’s -2.0% sector ATR%. JNUG (-3.43), a leveraged gold-miner ETN, is down 69.5% from its 52-week high, reflecting sharp mean reversion. FN (-3.10) is down 57.9% from its high, the steepest drawdown in the group. PWR (-2.83) and ETN (-2.80) round out weakness in Construction and Electrical Equipment, both showing elevated relative volume (1.5x and 1.0x respectively), suggesting active distribution rather than quiet drift.

Sector Theme

Bullish breakouts cluster in Software (CVLT, PAYC, ADBE, GWRE) and Retail (ULTA, AZO), contrasting with defensive sector leadership in Utilities, Health Care, and Consumer Staples. This divergence — tech-adjacent breakouts despite weak Technology sector ATR% — suggests idiosyncratic strength rather than broad rotation. Bearish pressure concentrates in Semiconductors (LRCX), Electrical Equipment (ETN), and Construction (PWR), consistent with the regime’s weak Financials/Communication Services/Technology complex.

Institutional Summary

No fund-level accumulation data was available across any scanned ticker (0 funds, undefined % increase) in this dataset. Bucket classifications show most top bullish names (LMT, ALLE, ULTA, ADBE, AZO, SPGI, MEDP) in the funds_1000 tier, while PAYC, CVLT, and GWRE sit in funds_500 — a tier distinction rather than a direct institutional ownership signal. Given this data gap, technical and volume confirmation (relative volume, ATR Multiple) remain the primary conviction drivers for today’s picks.

Signals