Overview
Today’s 20-Week Breakout scan recorded 345 total signals, split between 288 bullish (dollar_20_wk + pct_20_wk) and 57 bearish (dollar_d20_wk + pct_d20_wk) setups. The bullish share stands at approximately 83.5%, a ratio that would typically signal aggressive institutional accumulation and strong momentum.
However, the broader SA Regime is flagged Bearish, with only 24.4% of stocks trading above their SMA-40 and defensive sectors (Utilities -3.7% ATR%, Real Estate -2.3%, Industrials -2.2%) showing clear distribution. Sentiment reads Bullish/Neutral, a divergence from price action that suggests narrow, sector-concentrated strength rather than broad market health. The overwhelming bullish signal count is almost entirely driven by the CHIPS sector, which dominates today’s top movers.
Quality Assessment: Given the regime headwinds, we cap conviction at a Quality Score of 3/5. While the semiconductor complex is showing genuine institutional-grade breakouts, the underlying market breadth and bearish regime classification warrant a selective, risk-managed approach rather than broad-based aggression.
Top 5 Bullish Picks
TSM ($451.89) — CHIPS / Elec-Semiconductor Mfg
Weekly Momentum: TSM posted a dollar-based 20-week breakout with an ATR Multiple of 3.34, one of the strongest readings in today’s scan. The stock trades just 5.7% off its 52-week high and is up 70.2% from its 52-week low, reflecting sustained institutional buying in the foundry leader despite only 0.9x relative volume.
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Entry | $451.89 |
| Risk (1x ATR) | $441.00 |
| Target (2x ATR) | $473.67 |
Institutional Interest: Bucket all_unique_bucket_2_stocks; fund count data undefined for this session, ADR% of 1.9% signals lower volatility, institutional-friendly accumulation profile.
MXL ($87.43) — CHIPS / Elec-Semicondctor Fablss
Weekly Momentum: MXL logged an ATR Multiple of 3.25 with 6.5% ADR%, the highest volatility profile among top picks. The stock is up a remarkable 584.6% from its 52-week low, though still 31.9% below its 52-week high, indicating a powerful recovery trend with room to run.
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Entry | $87.43 |
| Risk (1x ATR) | $81.34 |
| Target (2x ATR) | $99.61 |
Institutional Interest: Bucket all_unique_bucket_1_stocks; relative volume of 1.1 confirms active participation above average volume of 3,278,150 shares.
ALAB ($363.46) — CHIPS / Elec-Semicondctor Fablss
Weekly Momentum: ALAB’s ATR Multiple of 2.96 combined with a 118.3% LOD Risk ATR% signals an extremely aggressive intraday range. Up 271.3% from its 52-week low, this remains one of the sector’s premier growth stories despite sitting 27.2% off highs.
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Entry | $363.46 |
| Risk (1x ATR) | $339.42 |
| Target (2x ATR) | $411.54 |
Institutional Interest: Bucket all_unique_bucket_1_stocks; relative volume 1.2x on 5,395,107 shares traded versus 4,473,960 average confirms active accumulation.
ADI ($390.37) — CHIPS / Elec-Semiconductor Mfg
Weekly Momentum: ADI’s ATR Multiple of 1.56 and tight 2.5% ADR% reflect a lower-volatility institutional favorite. Trading just 12.5% off its 52-week high and up 74.7% from lows, this is a steadier momentum name within the CHIPS breakout cohort.
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Entry | $390.37 |
| Risk (1x ATR) | $378.91 |
| Target (2x ATR) | $413.29 |
Institutional Interest: Bucket all_unique_bucket_2_stocks; 85.4% LOD Risk ATR% indicates wide intraday swings worth monitoring for entry timing.
CBRS ($212.41) — CHIPS / Elec-Semicondctor Fablss
Weekly Momentum: CBRS rounds out the top five with an ATR Multiple of 0.80 but an elevated 5.8% ADR%. The stock remains 45.0% below its 52-week high while up 32.1% from lows, suggesting an early-stage recovery breakout rather than a fully extended move.
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Entry | $212.41 |
| Risk (1x ATR) | $198.33 |
| Target (2x ATR) | $240.57 |
Institutional Interest: Bucket all_unique_bucket_1_stocks; relative volume of 0.8 on 6,049,334 shares is below the 7,120,040 average, warranting a watch for volume confirmation.
Bearish Alerts
The SOFTWARE sector dominates today’s bearish list, with five names posting dollar-based 20-week breakdowns. FICO ($914.60) shows the most severe deterioration with an ATR Multiple of -3.29 and sits 54.2% below its 52-week high. INTU ($292.35) follows with an ATR Multiple of -2.04, also 58.5% off highs. HUBS ($218.00) and TYL ($331.06) show milder ATR Multiples of -0.87 and -0.13 respectively, while CRM ($233.28) notably posts a positive ATR Multiple of 2.74 despite the bearish classification, suggesting a potential reversal candidate worth monitoring rather than shorting.
Enterprise and financial software names are clearly under distribution pressure, consistent with the broader bearish regime.
Sector Theme
Today’s action is a tale of two sectors: CHIPS names dominate bullish breakouts with concentrated strength in fabless and equipment names (CBRS, CRDO, MTSI, ONTO, ADI, ALAB, MXL, TSM, LRCX, AEIS), aligning with Technology’s ranking among top ATR% sectors (1.4%). Meanwhile SOFTWARE, particularly enterprise and financial software subsegments, shows synchronized weakness. This sector rotation pattern—semiconductors leading, software lagging—is a classic late-cycle signature within a bearish regime and reinforces the need for sector-selective positioning.
Institutional Summary
Fund count data was unavailable (undefined) across all tracked tickers today, limiting direct institutional accumulation comparisons. However, relative volume and bucket classifications offer proxy signals: ALAB and MXL (bucket 1) showed above-average relative volume (1.2x and 1.1x respectively), suggesting active institutional participation. TSM and ADI, both in bucket 2 with lower ADR% profiles, appear to attract steadier institutional flows typical of large-cap semiconductor holdings.