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Bullish Swing Idea

20-Week Breakout Analysis — 2026-02-17

February 17, 2026 4 min read
Tickers Mentioned
VSTLSOLSQBTZWOLFSMX
Key Takeaways
  • VSTL: ATR multiple 0.82, 0 funds | SOLS: ATR multiple 9.05, 0 funds | QBTZ: ATR multiple 1.22, 0 funds

Overview

On February 17, 2026, the WaveRider 20-Week Breakout scan identified 229 total signals, with a notable bearish tilt: 135 bearish signals versus 94 bullish. This 59% bearish ratio suggests broader market pressure, with more stocks breaking down from their 20-week support levels than breaking out to new momentum highs.

However, quality concerns dominate this scan. The bullish list is heavily weighted toward ETFs and low-institutional interest stocks, with multiple tickers showing negative ATR multiples and extreme volatility characteristics. Most names lack meaningful institutional backing, with “0 funds” appearing repeatedly. This suggests retail-driven momentum rather than institutional accumulation, raising sustainability concerns for these breakouts.

Top 5 Bullish Picks

SOLS ($80.90) — Diversified Operations

SOLS Daily Chart

Weekly Momentum: SOLS demonstrates the strongest technical setup with a 9.05 ATR multiple, indicating powerful momentum 9x beyond normal daily volatility. Trading just 4.2% below its 52-week high after doubling from its 52-week low (100.1% gain), SOLS shows institutional-grade momentum. Relative volume of 1.4x confirms heightened interest, with over 4.6 million shares changing hands. The funds_500 bucket classification suggests mid-tier institutional presence, though current fund count shows zero—possibly a data lag issue given the bucket assignment.

Level Price Risk/Reward
Current $80.90 Entry
Stop Loss (2 ATR) $73.38 -9.3%
Target 1 (3 ATR) $92.18 +14.0%
Target 2 (5 ATR) $99.70 +23.3%

Institutional Interest: 0 funds reported, but funds_500 bucket suggests institutional activity. Monitor for Q1 2026 13F filings.

HOOZ ($39.46) — Exchange Traded Fund

Weekly Momentum: This ETF surged 152.3% from its 52-week low with a solid 4.77 ATR multiple, indicating sustained momentum. Trading 19.8% below its 52-week high leaves room for recovery. The 12.2% ADR suggests manageable volatility for an ETF product, while the 27.2% LOD Risk ATR indicates a relatively tight stop-loss zone. Average daily volume of 297,230 shares provides adequate liquidity for position management.

Level Price Risk/Reward
Current $39.46 Entry
Stop Loss (2 ATR) $29.98 -24.0%
Target 1 (3 ATR) $53.68 +36.0%
Target 2 (52W High) $49.20 +24.7%

Institutional Interest: 0 funds. ETF structure may explain lack of institutional holding data.

WOLF ($19.12) — Semiconductor Manufacturing

WOLF Daily Chart

Weekly Momentum: WOLF stands out as the only non-ETF with meaningful institutional presence (19 funds, 2.0% ownership). The semiconductor play has exploded 137.5% from its 52-week low, though it remains 97.9% below its 52-week high—suggesting either a stock split, reverse split, or extreme volatility. The 1.6x relative volume and 2.4 million shares traded indicate genuine interest. However, the 0.37 ATR multiple and 106.5% LOD Risk ATR warn of potential exhaustion and wide stop requirements.

Level Price Risk/Reward
Current $19.12 Entry
Stop Loss (2 ATR) $15.22 -20.4%
Target 1 (3 ATR) $24.97 +30.6%
Target 2 (4 ATR) $26.92 +40.8%

Institutional Interest: 19 funds holding 2.0% of shares—best institutional backing in this cohort.

LMRI ($15.22) — Medical Devices

Weekly Momentum: LMRI offers a defensive healthcare play with relatively low volatility (9.0% ADR) and solid volume (773,210 average). The 52.7% gain from 52-week lows while trading only 21.8% below highs suggests a sustained recovery pattern. The negative ATR multiple (-0.25) indicates early-stage breakout formation rather than extended momentum. The 81.1% LOD Risk ATR requires wider stops but may offer better risk-adjusted returns.

Level Price Risk/Reward
Current $15.22 Entry
Stop Loss (2 ATR) $12.72 -16.4%
Target 1 (3 ATR) $18.97 +24.7%
Target 2 (52W High) $19.46 +27.9%

Institutional Interest: 0 funds reported, limiting confidence in sustained momentum.

FGL ($13.27) — Engineering & Construction

Weekly Momentum: FGL shows explosive relative volume at 3.0x with 221,770 shares traded versus 75,210 average—a clear catalyst-driven move. The 88.8% gain from lows indicates strong recovery, though the 91.8% distance from highs and bucket_0_youth_ipo_less_5yrs classification reveals this is a young, volatile name. The 31.4% ADR and negative ATR multiple (-1.23) suggest caution, but the 3x volume surge warrants attention for momentum traders.

Level Price Risk/Reward
Current $13.27 Entry
Stop Loss (2 ATR) $4.21 -68.3%
Target 1 (3 ATR) $26.86 +102.4%
Target 2 (4 ATR) $31.39 +136.6%

Institutional Interest: 0 funds. Youth IPO status limits institutional data availability.

Bearish Alerts

The bearish side shows 135 signals dominated by ETF products breaking 20-week support. Notable weakness appears in CRMX (down 85.9% from highs), SOUX (down 93.4%), and EOSU (down 66.7%). All show negative ATR multiples and below-average relative volume, indicating controlled liquidation rather than panic selling. The Basic Materials sector appears with SCZM, an industrial metals play down 49.5% from highs despite an 831.9% gain from lows—suggesting extreme roundtrip volatility.

Sector Theme

No cohesive sector theme emerges from this scan. The bullish list spans Semiconductors (WOLF), Healthcare (LMRI), Industrials (FGL), and Diversified Operations (SOLS), with heavy ETF representation. This scattershot pattern suggests idiosyncratic, stock-specific moves rather than broad sector rotation. The 59% bearish signal ratio combined with lack of sector clustering indicates a defensive, risk-off environment where capital flows remain uncertain.

Institutional Summary

WOLF leads with 19 institutional funds holding 2.0% of shares—the only meaningful institutional presence in this scan. All other top names report zero fund ownership, severely limiting confidence in breakout sustainability. The prevalence of “undefined” fund percentage increases across all tickers suggests data quality issues or extremely recent price action that hasn’t yet been captured in institutional filings. Traders should await Q1 2026 13F filings before committing significant capital to these names.

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