6/18 Bearish. 150 Buying | 350 Selling.
% Stocks Over 50SMA is Bearish – Overbought. Primary Indicator is Bullish – Caution. 20% Weekly is Bullish – Caution.
The market retreated amid escalating geopolitical tensions centered on the Israel-Iran conflict and disappointing May retail sales and industrial production data. Safe-haven demand pushed Treasury yields and the dollar lower and higher, respectively, while the VIX surged 12.7%, signaling elevated risk aversion.
Energy was the lone sector to gain (+1.0%) as crude oil jumped 2%, contrasting with broad weakness; healthcare and consumer discretionary notably underperformed amid regulatory concerns and weak retail data.
Tomorrow’s key catalysts include the FOMC Rate Decision and Summary of Economic Projections at 2:00 PM ET, plus May housing starts and initial jobless claims early in the session.
Key Takeaway:
Swing traders should remain cautious given the bearish volume skew and geopolitical uncertainty. Focus on defensive or energy-related sectors showing relative strength while avoiding discretionary and healthcare stocks under regulatory pressure. Watch for volatility spikes and respect key support levels, as downside risks remain elevated ahead of the Fed meeting.
Watchlist
Continuation: ZS (S1: 304, S2: 301, S3: 300, R1: 308, R2: 310, R3: 315)
Anticipation: NFLX (S1: 1200, S2: 1190, S3: 1185, R1: 1226, R2: 1230, R3: 1250)
