The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #357: Chip Scare, Quiet Breadth: Navigating a Split Tape Before CPI – Monday 10/12/2026

Episode 3575:46

0:005:46

Episode summary

A China-driven memory chip selloff is dragging Nasdaq futures lower while the S&P holds steady, but under the surface market breadth is quietly improving after a rough stretch. With Columbus Day leaving a data vacuum, the hosts break down the cautious regime call, key breadth and rate signals, and the top tactical trade setups to...

Chapter by chapter

Split Tape: S&P vs Nasdaq

S&P futures hold near fair value while Nasdaq futures sink 120 points, setting a cautious regime call.

China Chip Shock Hits Semis

CXMT's next-gen memory signal rattles Micron and the SMH, extending a selloff that started with Korea's Kospi plunge.

Columbus Day Data Vacuum

Treasury markets closed and no econ data today, with CPI, PPI, and bank earnings looming later in the week.

Breadth Quietly Improving

Stocks above key moving averages rise, bull-bear sentiment flips positive, and equal-weight snaps a seven-week losing streak.

Rates Compress Valuations

The 10-year near 5.24% is squeezing forward P/E multiples even as earnings growth runs at 31%.

Top Movers & Catalysts

SBAC, NET, TWLO, COIN, Bristol Myers, and Salesforce lead on fresh catalysts while NVDA shrugs off SMCI noise.

Action Codes & Scenario Plan

CRT and T3A guide a selective approach, with clear gap-up and gap-down game plans into Wednesday's CPI.

Key points

  • Nasdaq futures are down sharply on a China-driven memory chip scare, while the S&P holds near fair value — a clean sector-specific divergence.
  • Market breadth is quietly improving: more stocks above 20- and 40-day averages, bullish sentiment rising, and equal-weight snapping a seven-week losing streak.
  • Rising rates (10-year at 5.24%) are compressing valuations even as earnings grow 31% — this is a 'prove-it' tape.
  • Today's cautious regime calls for Controlled Risk Taking (CRT) and Think 3 Days Ahead (T3A) — stay selective, not aggressive.
  • Wednesday's CPI print is the key catalyst to watch; let chip names like Micron settle before trading them.

Ticker charts

SBAC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SBAC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 12, 2026.

NET

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NET in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 12, 2026.

TWLO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TWLO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 12, 2026.

COIN

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COIN in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 12, 2026.

BMY

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open BMY in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 12, 2026.

CRM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CRM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 12, 2026.

NVDA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NVDA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 12, 2026.

SMCI

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SMCI in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 12, 2026.

MU

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MU in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 12, 2026.

SMH

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SMH in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 12, 2026.

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