The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #346: Green Screens, Broken Breadth: Why We’re Still Bearish – Friday 9/25/2026

Episode 3465:59

0:005:59

Episode summary

Futures are surging on an Iran de-escalation headline and falling oil, but the hosts dig into why the regime call remains Bearish — a one-day breadth collapse from 82% to 42% and a hawkish Fed tell a different story than the tape. They close with actionable setups (CLS, NBIS, WAT, AKAM, BB) and the FHP/COUGAR framework for trading a narrow, fragile rally.

Chapter by chapter

Green Futures vs. Bearish Regime Call

Futures rip higher on an Iran Hormuz headline while the underlying regime signal stays Bearish.

Iran Headline Hits Oil and Yields

Oil drops 2.2% and yields ease on Araghchi's Hormuz offer, though the bond desk calls it a dubious catalyst.

Hawkish Fed, No Cuts Until 2028

A unanimous hawkish hike and 70.9% odds of another October move keep pressure on the tape.

Breadth Cracks From 82% to 42%

A one-day collapse in stocks above their 20-day moving average reveals a structural break beneath a 'flat' close.

Narrow Leadership: Tech Up, Everything Else Down

Mega-cap tech and gold rally while materials, utilities, and staples slide despite a Costco beat.

Top Scans: CLS, NBIS, WAT, AKAM, BB

Continuation setups and a standout Akamai gap on an $11.6B Anthropic AI cloud deal.

FHP and COUGAR: The Game Plan

Action codes for a bearish sentiment backdrop — wait for confirmation and let strong names prove themselves.

Key points

  • The regime call stays Bearish despite green futures because only ~20% of stocks sit above their 40-day moving average.
  • A one-day breadth collapse (82% to 42% above the 20-day MA) signals a structural crack, not a cosmetic dip.
  • Iran's Hormuz reopening offer is viewed as a 'dubious catalyst' — conditions haven't fundamentally changed.
  • Leadership is narrow: mega-cap tech and gold are up while cyclicals and defensives lag broadly.
  • Use FHP (First Hour Pass) and COUGAR discipline — with bears outnumbering bulls 210 to 130, patience beats FOMO.

Ticker charts

CLS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CLS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

NBIS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NBIS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

WAT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open WAT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

AKAM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AKAM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

BB

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open BB in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

META

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open META in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

COST

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COST in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

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