The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #345: Record High, Razor-Thin Breadth: Trading a Cautious Bearish Tape – Wednesday 9/23/2026

Episode 3456:00

0:006:00

Episode summary

Despite a fresh Nasdaq record, only 24.43% of stocks trade above their 40-day average — a breadth divergence echoing December 1999 — driving a Cautious Bearish regime call. The team breaks down a hawkish Fed hike with no cuts until 2028, financials getting crushed by rising yields and AI disruption fears, and a tactical playbook built around patience, WDC, and today’s PMI and five-year auction catalysts.

Chapter by chapter

Record Close, Cautious Bearish Call

Nasdaq hits a record but only 24.43% of stocks are above their 40-day average, echoing a 1999-style breadth divergence.

Fed's Hawkish Hike & Geopolitical Risks

A unanimous 25bp hike, no cuts until 2028, 10-year yields near 5%, plus Iran and US-China tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.

Narrow Leadership Under the Hood

Breadth ticks up slightly as semis and materials lead while financials sink on rate pressure.

Meta's Muse AI Rattles Financials

Meta's Muse AI agent hits 500,000 users in a week, adding disruption fear to financials already hurt by yields.

Thin Scan, WDC Standout

Only five names on the continuation scan, with Western Digital (WDC) as the clear leader alongside SSL, IONQ, and WOR.

Action Codes and Gap Scenarios

FHP and COUGAR action codes guide a patient approach around the 9:45 PMI prints and the 1 PM five-year auction.

Key points

  • Only 24.43% of stocks are above their 40-day average despite a record Nasdaq close, signaling dangerously narrow breadth.
  • The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75-4.00% unanimously, with hawkish guidance suggesting no cuts until 2028.
  • Financials are under a double squeeze from rising yields (10-year near 5%) and AI disruption fears from Meta's Muse agent.
  • Semiconductors and materials are the only durable leadership; the continuation scan has just five names, favoring patience.
  • Key catalysts today: 9:45 AM PMI prints, Fed's Barr at 10:05, and a $70B five-year note auction at 1 PM.

Ticker charts

WDC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open WDC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 23, 2026.

SSL

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SSL in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 23, 2026.

IONQ

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open IONQ in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 23, 2026.

WOR

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open WOR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 23, 2026.

SCHW

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SCHW in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 23, 2026.

ALL

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ALL in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 23, 2026.

WFC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open WFC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 23, 2026.

META

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open META in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 23, 2026.

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