The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #338: Green Futures, Red Breadth: Trading Into the CPI Print – Friday 9/11/2026

Episode 3385:47

0:005:47

Episode summary

Futures are surging on an overnight oil de-escalation headline, but market breadth is deteriorating fast, putting the regime firmly in cautious territory. The hosts break down the diverging AI trade, retail landmines, and lay out a clear playbook for trading around the 8:30 CPI print.

Chapter by chapter

Breadth Warning Beneath the Bounce

Futures rally hard but the percentage of stocks above their 40-day average keeps slipping, signaling a defensive regime.

Oil Shock and the CPI Countdown

WTI craters on Gulf-Iran diplomacy headlines while all eyes turn to the 8:30 CPI print and shifting Fed hike odds.

Sector Divergence and the AI Trade Split

Nine of eleven sectors close red as NVDA and TSM slide while Oracle's infrastructure story diverges sharply from Adobe's monetization worries.

Retail Landmines and Bright Spots

American Eagle, Zumiez, and Cooper Companies get crushed on destocking fears, while Copart's ACV Auctions deal stands out as a rare winner.

Continuation List and Trade Codes

A rundown of RDDT, Apple, APP, and ELV as watch names, plus the First Hour Pass and Cougar codes for navigating a binary CPI day.

CPI Scenario Playbook

A clear hot-vs-cool CPI scenario split with specific defensive and offensive plans for either outcome.

Key points

  • Market breadth is deteriorating fast — only 34% of stocks are above their 40-day average, and the 20-day reading collapsed from 58% to 31% in one session.
  • Overnight strength is driven by an oil de-escalation headline (Gulf-Iran talks), not resolved fundamentals — treat it as relief, not repair.
  • The 8:30 CPI print is the whole ballgame, carrying extra weight since the new Fed Chair stripped forward guidance.
  • The AI trade is splitting: Oracle's infrastructure story is being validated while Adobe and NVDA face scrutiny despite decent numbers.
  • Trade plan: stay defensive and fade strength on a hot CPI/gap down; look to Apple and RDDT with volume confirmation on a cool CPI/gap up.

Ticker charts

NVDA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NVDA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

TSM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TSM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

ORCL

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ORCL in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

ADBE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ADBE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

AEO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AEO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

ZUMZ

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ZUMZ in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

COO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

CPRT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CPRT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

ACVA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ACVA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

RDDT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open RDDT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

AAPL

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AAPL in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

APP

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open APP in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

ELV

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ELV in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

FCX

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FCX in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 11, 2026.

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