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Tech sells off hard as sentiment turns Very Bearish and breadth deteriorates, pushing the regime fully defensive. The hosts break down which rate-sensitive names to cut before the bell, why today’s defensive winners are rallying on suspiciously light volume, and the two conditions that need to flip before the playbook changes.
Chapter by chapter
Bearish Skew and Breaking Breadth
Tech drops 3.48% as Bull/Bear skew hits extreme bearish levels and percent above the 40 SMA falls, confirming a defensive, reversal-day regime.
Cutting Rate-Sensitive Growth Names
NVDA, VRT, CEG, and APP all get cut before the bell on shared rate and capex fear.
Defensive Leaders on Thin Volume
CBOE, LLY, CME, and COST are all green, but relative volume under 1.0 means conviction is thin and size should stay small.
Financials Flushing at Support
STT and PGR break down at support on the same rate catalyst, setting up reversal shorts, while TVA's huge volume signals capitulation, not a bottom.
Volume Confirmation Before Entry
No new entries without a real volume pop on CME or COST, and no trading off assumed index levels.
Rates Rule Tomorrow
Overnight yield commentary is the key catalyst, with CME above 286 as the top long and STT below 164 as the cleanest short.
Two Triggers to Flip Defensive
The regime stays defensive until Bull/Bear skew narrows and percent above the 40 SMA stops falling.
Key points
Bull/Bear skew at 53-675 and falling percent-above-40-SMA confirm a defensive, risk-off regime.
Cut rate-sensitive growth names (NVDA, VRT, CEG, APP) ahead of the bell on shared capex/rate fear.
Defensive winners like CBOE, LLY, CME, and COST are rallying on relative volume under 1.0 — size small until volume confirms.
Heavy volume with no price movement (TVA at 13.6x RVOL) signals capitulation, not a buying opportunity.
Stay defensive until Bull/Bear skew narrows and the 40 SMA breadth measure stops deteriorating.
See NVDA in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NVDA in WaveFinder.
See VRT in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open VRT in WaveFinder.
See CEG in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CEG in WaveFinder.
See APP in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open APP in WaveFinder.
See CBOE in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CBOE in WaveFinder.
See LLY in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LLY in WaveFinder.
See CME in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CME in WaveFinder.
See COST in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COST in WaveFinder.
See STT in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open STT in WaveFinder.
See PGR in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PGR in WaveFinder.
See TVA in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TVA in WaveFinder.