Power Hour

Power Hour #127: Defensive Regime: Cutting Growth, Trusting No Volume – Wednesday 10/14/2026

Episode 1274:46

0:004:46

Episode summary

Tech sells off hard as sentiment turns Very Bearish and breadth deteriorates, pushing the regime fully defensive. The hosts break down which rate-sensitive names to cut before the bell, why today’s defensive winners are rallying on suspiciously light volume, and the two conditions that need to flip before the playbook changes.

Chapter by chapter

Bearish Skew and Breaking Breadth

Tech drops 3.48% as Bull/Bear skew hits extreme bearish levels and percent above the 40 SMA falls, confirming a defensive, reversal-day regime.

Cutting Rate-Sensitive Growth Names

NVDA, VRT, CEG, and APP all get cut before the bell on shared rate and capex fear.

Defensive Leaders on Thin Volume

CBOE, LLY, CME, and COST are all green, but relative volume under 1.0 means conviction is thin and size should stay small.

Financials Flushing at Support

STT and PGR break down at support on the same rate catalyst, setting up reversal shorts, while TVA's huge volume signals capitulation, not a bottom.

Volume Confirmation Before Entry

No new entries without a real volume pop on CME or COST, and no trading off assumed index levels.

Rates Rule Tomorrow

Overnight yield commentary is the key catalyst, with CME above 286 as the top long and STT below 164 as the cleanest short.

Two Triggers to Flip Defensive

The regime stays defensive until Bull/Bear skew narrows and percent above the 40 SMA stops falling.

Key points

  • Bull/Bear skew at 53-675 and falling percent-above-40-SMA confirm a defensive, risk-off regime.
  • Cut rate-sensitive growth names (NVDA, VRT, CEG, APP) ahead of the bell on shared capex/rate fear.
  • Defensive winners like CBOE, LLY, CME, and COST are rallying on relative volume under 1.0 — size small until volume confirms.
  • Heavy volume with no price movement (TVA at 13.6x RVOL) signals capitulation, not a buying opportunity.
  • Stay defensive until Bull/Bear skew narrows and the 40 SMA breadth measure stops deteriorating.

Ticker charts

NVDA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NVDA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

VRT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open VRT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

CEG

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CEG in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

APP

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open APP in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

CBOE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CBOE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

LLY

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LLY in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

CME

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CME in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

COST

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COST in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

STT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open STT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

PGR

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PGR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

TVA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TVA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

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