Power Hour

Power Hour #116: Don’t Trust the Bounce: Breadth Craters as Panic Fades – Tuesday 9/29/2026

Episode 1164:27

0:004:27

Episode summary

With sixty minutes to the close, panic selling has eased but market breadth has collapsed to just 11% of stocks above their 20-day average. The hosts break down why the bear count drop is exhaustion, not confirmation, and lay out a defensive playbook: hold AMAT, cut Energy and Materials, and watch one number — breadth — to see if tomorrow’s bounce is real.

Chapter by chapter

Breadth Craters as Panic Fades

Bear count drops from 276 to 116 but breadth falls to 11%, signaling exhaustion rather than a real reversal.

AMAT Momentum Without Volume

AMAT leads gains but low RVOL means hold, don't add, until volume confirms.

Two Green Sectors, Two to Cut

Only Technology and Health Care are positive; Energy and Materials get cut before the bell.

COHR's News Pop Gets Sold

Even AI-catalyst names like COHR are being sold into strength, plus TDTT/FTGS volume spikes are defensive, not risk-on.

Oil Pressure and the Chip Setup

Saudi export resumption threatens Energy unless USO reclaims 150, while AMAT near 507 could drive a chip-led continuation.

The Breadth Number That Flips It

Percent above the 20-day must reclaim 11% into the close for the exhaustion bounce to hold, or expect another leg down.

Key points

  • Breadth cratered from 21% to 11% even as the bear count fell — that's selling exhaustion, not a confirmed bottom.
  • Only two sectors are green: Technology and Health Care. Concentrate there or sit out.
  • Cut Energy and Materials before the bell; both are printing new lows.
  • Hold AMAT but don't add until RVOL confirms above 507.71; don't chase COHR into the sell-the-news move.
  • Watch percent above the 20-day day — it needs to reclaim 11% into the close for the bounce to hold, otherwise expect another leg down.

Ticker charts

AMAT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AMAT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

COHR

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COHR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

FORM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FORM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

TDTT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TDTT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

FTGS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FTGS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

USO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open USO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

RSPT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open RSPT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

RSPG

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open RSPG in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

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