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Power Hour #99 Neutral

Power Hour #99: Trading Blind: Breadth Cracks in the Final Hour – Thursday 9/3/2026

September 3, 2026 4:06
Episode Summary
With index data down, the hosts dig into the tape to find the regime has quietly shifted from bullish to choppy-defensive as breadth contracts. They break down what to hold (TSLA, SOFI, KKR, CRM, AGX), what to cut (AVGO, GOLD, GIS), and why energy is rotating in as chips and commodities leak lower.
Key Takeaways
  • Breadth contracting: only 11% of names above 20 SMA
  • TSLA +6.8% leads software momentum continuation
  • Energy sector leads while Tech and Industrials lag
  • AVGO -2.9% on heavy volume signals chip distribution
  • Index data unavailable — trade by breadth, stay selective
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Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Index data is unavailable for SPY, QQQ, and IWM today, so we’re navigating by breadth alone — and breadth is quietly contracting under a bullish-tinted surface.

  • Breadth contracting: % Above 20 SMA dropped to 11% from 17% (-6.0pp), and % Above 40 SMA slipped to 44.12% from 45.81% (-1.7pp) — participation is narrowing into the close.
  • Sector rotation: Energy (RSPG) leads at 3.33 and rising, while Technology (RSPT) sits at -1.37 (16th percentile) and Industrials (RSPN) at -1.46 — money favoring energy over cyclicals.
  • Character: Bull 4% still healthy at 143 vs Bear 4% at 57, but the day reads choppy-to-defensive as fewer names hold above short-term moving averages.

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

  • Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): TSLA at $381.37, +6.8% on 1.3 RVOL with 5K institutional flag — the cleanest large-cap momentum print. MSFT +3.3% at $513.07 and CRM +3.8% at $266.57 back the software theme.
  • Strongest reversal setup: AGX at $421.04, +2.6% on 2.0 RVOL — a rare green reversal-bullish name while chip-linked ETFs (AVGG, AVL) show heavy volume on red closes; watch AGX for confirmation.
  • SIP leaders: SOFI ($17.84) up +4.63% from open on a banking partnership is holding; KKR ($106.43, +0.76%) firm. Fades: GIS ($40.59, -1.55%) and GOLD ($43.91) on a Q4 miss.
  • Action code — 2LYNCH (Continuation Breakout): Software momentum (TSLA, MSFT, CRM, TEAM +5.0%, TWLO +6.2%) is the day’s real leadership tape and the highest-conviction playbook.

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

  • CLOSE / trim: Chip exposure showing distribution — AVGO at $356.52, -2.9% on 3.3 RVOL, plus GOLD post-miss and GIS. Tighten stops or exit into the bell.
  • ENTER on confirmation: TSLA above intraday highs from $381.37, or CRM holding $266+, are the setups to add if they close strong; use FFM/CRT sizing given narrowing breadth.
  • Key level: With SPY data unavailable, let breadth be your gauge — if % Above 20 SMA falls further below 11% into the close, treat rallies as sell-the-rip and keep risk small overnight.

Tomorrow’s Early Look

  • Catalyst watch: Energy strength (RSPG at 3.33) plus GOLD‘s miss keep commodities front-and-center; monitor any crude/metals follow-through pre-market.
  • Setup forming: AGX near $421 — a hold here sets a continuation base; TSLA follow-through above $381.37 remains the momentum tell.
  • Regime outlook: Contracting breadth means today’s leadership is narrow — stay selective, favor energy/software leaders, and don’t chase a thin tape until % Above 20 SMA stabilizes.
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