Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
Regime has flipped decisively bullish on the tape since yesterday — the 4% breadth signal reads Bullish, though the 40-SMA gauge remains Neutral. Note: SPY, QQQ and IWM price/SMA data are unavailable today, so we lean entirely on internals.
- Breadth thrust up, but narrow: Bull 4% surged to 205 vs just 60 Bear 4% today — a massive reversal from yesterday’s ugly 104 bull / 334 bear split.
- Short-term stretched, medium-term firming: % Above 20-SMA collapsed to 8% (from 17%, -9pp), while % Above 40-SMA ticked up to 43.26% (from 42.74%, +0.5pp) — a healing-under-the-surface tell.
- Character: This looks like a reversal/rotation day — defensive and energy leadership dominating while the former growth engine idles.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
- Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): SPOT $560.65 (+3.0%) leads on RVOL 0.6, with APP $318.39 (+2.1%) and DKS $136.73 (+2.8%) extending — though light RVOL (0.5) means conviction is thin. OIH $436.95 (+2.4%, RVOL 1.1) is the cleanest volume-backed name.
- Strongest reversal setup: HPE $51.34 (+0.9%, RVOL 2.1) is turning up on real volume; watch PCG $13.27 — down 5.6% on RVOL 2.4, a knife still falling amid its strategic-review headline.
- SIP leaders: UTHR $512.70 holds firm on FDA acceptance of the Tyvaso IPF indication (positive), and ASTS $55.80 got a fresh Buy initiation but faded -2.28% from open — momentum not confirming. EIX $58.79 got a JP Morgan target cut yet ran +8.83% off the open.
- Most relevant action code: PLASTICS (Sector Winners) — Energy (RSPG 3.75, 95th pctile) and Consumer Staples (RSPS 1.47, 100th pctile) are where the strength lives; fade the laggards.
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
- CLOSE / trim: Exit weak Utilities and Industrials exposure — RSPU sits at -2.3 and RSPN at -1.79 (0th percentile), both falling. Any bounce into the bell is a selling opportunity, not a buy. Cut PCG longs if you’re holding into that -5.6% flush.
- ENTER on confirmation: If OIH holds above $436 into the close on rising volume, it’s the highest-quality continuation with RVOL 1.1 backing the move. SPOT above $560 is your growth-side FFM candidate if it closes near highs.
- Key level: SPY level data is unavailable — so anchor to internals instead: if % Above 20-SMA can stabilize off today’s 8% into tomorrow while Bull 4% stays north of Bear 4%, that confirms the reversal has legs. A relapse below yesterday’s bearish readings kills it.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
- Catalyst watch: Energy is the tell — RSPG at the 95th percentile means crude/OIH follow-through drives the open. Keep an eye on any overnight energy or rate headlines given the defensive Staples bid.
- Setup forming: OIH above $436.95 is the cleanest carry-over; secondary, UTHR above $512 on its FDA catalyst if it holds the gap.
- Regime outlook: Today’s breadth flip is encouraging but narrow (8% above 20-SMA is oversold-stretched). Trade small, favor leaders over broad beta, and demand volume confirmation — one bullish breadth day doesn’t erase yesterday’s 334 Bear 4% damage.