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Power Hour #95 Bearish

Power Hour #95: Breadth Break: From 46% to 10% in One Session – Friday 8/28/2026

August 28, 2026 4:20
Tickers Mentioned
Episode Summary
Market breadth collapses from 46% to 10% above the 20-day moving average in a single session, flipping sentiment gauges and market leadership overnight. The hosts break down what to cut, what to hold small, and which stocks to watch for tomorrow's confirmation.
Key Takeaways
  • Breadth collapsed: only 10% of stocks above 20 SMA
  • Bull 4% cratered to 39, Bear 4% surged to 218
  • Inverse ETFs flooding reversal scans signal risk-off
  • PANW and ALAB failing — trim extended tech
  • Insurance names AJG and AON offer defensive strength
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Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Regime has flipped defensive intraday — breadth is collapsing hard from yesterday’s healthier readings, and inverse ETFs are surfacing in the reversal scans.

  • Breadth contracting sharply: % above 20 SMA cratered to 10% from 46% yesterday (-36pp), and % above 40 SMA slipped to 46.13% from 52.61% (-6.5pp). This is broad, fast deterioration.
  • Bull/bear flip: Bull 4% collapsed to 39 from 259, while Bear 4% swelled to 218 from 112 — sentiment reads Bearish on both the 4% and 40SMA gauges.
  • Character: This is a distribution/reversal day. Leadership narrowed to defensives — Communication Services (RSPC 3.08, 89th pct) and Health Care (RSPH 2.7) hold up, while Utilities (RSPU -2.44, 0 pct) and Industrials (RSPN -1.3, 0 pct) are pinned at the floor.

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

  • Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): Insurance is the tell — AJG $268.29 (+3.1%, RVOL 1.0) and AON $357.36 (+2.2%) both firm with institutional sponsorship. In a contracting tape, defensive continuation like this is where relative strength lives.
  • Reversal watch: SUNB $72.88 tops the reversal-bullish list on heavy RVOL 3.1 but is red (-1.1%) — needs to reclaim to confirm. GPRE $14.56 (+3.7%, RVOL 2.2) is the cleaner bounce, though its 136% risk tag demands a tight leash.
  • SIP leaders vs. laggards: Mega-cap software/chips are failing — PANW $382.85 and ALAB $304.09 both flagged sentiment -1 (“trading lower”). DKNG $24.22 got a court tailwind but is fading (-2.8% from open). EIX $73.68 negative on California wildfire liability news reinforces the utility weakness.
  • Most relevant action code — ABC (Always Be in Control): With inverse ETFs (SDS $54.20, SPXU $34.33, SPDN $8.50) populating the bullish-reversal scan, the market is telegraphing risk-off. Protect capital first.

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

  • Trim/close: Lighten extended tech and chip names into the bell — PANW and ALAB are showing distribution characteristics, and with only 10% of stocks above their 20 SMA, momentum longs have thin air beneath them. Book gains, tighten stops.
  • Selective entry (CRT — Controlled Risk Taking): If insurance holds, AJG above $268 and AON above $357 are the highest-quality continuation candidates — but size small given the hostile breadth. Only add if they close strong on volume.
  • Key level: SPY data is unavailable today, so I can’t cite a hard number — trade the internals instead. As long as % above 20 SMA stays pinned near 10%, treat rallies as suspect and honor stops mechanically.

Tomorrow’s Early Look

  • Catalyst watch: Software and semis are the swing factor — a follow-through lower in PANW/ALAB tomorrow would confirm today’s breadth break; a sharp reclaim would suggest a one-day flush.
  • Setup forming: SUNB near $72.88 on RVOL 3.1 — a green reclaim of that level tomorrow is a legitimate reversal trigger. On the defensive side, AON above $357 remains a low-ATR (0.6) grind-higher candidate.
  • Regime outlook: Today changed the plan. We shifted from constructive to defensive — until % above 20 SMA recovers back toward the 40s, favor cash, defensives, and tight risk over chasing breakouts. Let the tape prove it can hold before pressing longs.
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