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Power Hour #91 Bearish

Power Hour #91: Power Hour: Breadth Breaks, Defense Wins – Monday 8/24/2026

August 24, 2026 5:17
Episode Summary
A sudden 21-point breadth collapse flips the market into a defensive regime, and the Analyst walks through which names to hold, which to cut, and why RVOL is the ultimate lie detector. The episode closes with the playbook for tomorrow's open — two leadership sectors, two confirmation tells, and a warning to trust breadth over missing index levels.
Key Takeaways
  • Breadth collapsed: percent above 20SMA fell to 39% from 60%
  • Sentiment 4% flipped Bearish as Bull count crashed to 86
  • Comm Services, Energy, Health Care lead; Tech and Utilities lag
  • IT and KURA are the cleanest continuation entries on confirmation
  • Index data unavailable — trade breadth, tighten stops, stay defensive
0:00 / 5:17

Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Regime has flipped defensive since the open — breadth is contracting hard and Sentiment 4% now reads Bearish while the 40SMA holds Neutral.

  • Breadth contracting fast: % above 20SMA collapsed to 39% from 60% yesterday (-21pp), and % above 40SMA slipped to 51.35% from 54.93% (-3.6pp).
  • Bull/Bear flip: Bull 4% cratered to 86 from 274, while Bear 4% climbed to 136 from 77 — sellers took control intraday.
  • Sector rotation: Communication Services (RSPC) leads at a max 2.85 (100th percentile) with Energy (RSPG 3.02) and Health Care (RSPH 3.1) firm; Technology (RSPT -1.29) and Utilities (RSPU -2.02) are the laggards. Character today: reversal/distribution day.

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

  • Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): ANRO $36.92 +7.7% (RVOL 0.8) leads by move, but KURA $12.52 +5.3% at RVOL 1.0 shows better participation; IT $201.04 +2.6% is the cleaner institutional name.
  • Reversal watch: 312 bullish reversals flagged — WGMI $45.34 (RVOL 3.9) and KN $32.79 lead on volume, but RGNX $8.34 -22.2% and AZTA $33.39 -10.7% are knife-catches, not confirmations yet.
  • SIP leaders: HD $335.70 (better Q2, guidance) and LOW $216.03 remain the constructive retail tandem; VEEV $247.95 held a PT raise. ELTK and PONY flashed weak/mixed prints — avoid.
  • Most relevant code — ABC (Always Be in Control): With 20SMA breadth down 21pp, tighten stops and shrink size. Pair with CRT (Controlled Risk Taking) — only add on confirmed strength like IT or KURA holding RVOL > 1.0.

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

  • Close/trim: Exit extended Technology and Utilities exposure — RSPT (11th percentile) and RSPU (5th percentile) are both falling and offer no bid. Book weak reversal longs like AZTA and RGNX rather than hope.
  • Enter on confirmation: If IT $201.04 holds above the round $200 into the bell on rising volume, that’s a valid CRT continuation. KURA over $12.52 with RVOL staying near 1.0 is the speculative add.
  • Key level: SPY, QQQ and IWM index data are unavailable today — do not trade off phantom levels. Let breadth be your tell: another leg down in % above 20SMA below 39% means stay defensive into tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s Early Look

  • Catalyst watch: Track follow-through in Communication Services (RSPC) and Energy (RSPG) — the only sectors making new percentile highs — plus any retail read-through from HD/LOW.
  • Setup forming: IT above $201 stays the lead continuation candidate; KURA reclaiming and holding $12.50+ is the small-cap tell for tomorrow’s open.
  • Regime outlook: Today’s -21pp breadth drop changes the plan — treat rallies as suspect until % above 20SMA stabilizes and Sentiment 4% turns off Bearish. Plan defense first, offense only on confirmation.
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