Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
Regime has flipped defensive since the open — breadth is contracting hard and Sentiment 4% now reads Bearish while the 40SMA holds Neutral.
- Breadth contracting fast: % above 20SMA collapsed to 39% from 60% yesterday (-21pp), and % above 40SMA slipped to 51.35% from 54.93% (-3.6pp).
- Bull/Bear flip: Bull 4% cratered to 86 from 274, while Bear 4% climbed to 136 from 77 — sellers took control intraday.
- Sector rotation: Communication Services (RSPC) leads at a max 2.85 (100th percentile) with Energy (RSPG 3.02) and Health Care (RSPH 3.1) firm; Technology (RSPT -1.29) and Utilities (RSPU -2.02) are the laggards. Character today: reversal/distribution day.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
- Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): ANRO $36.92 +7.7% (RVOL 0.8) leads by move, but KURA $12.52 +5.3% at RVOL 1.0 shows better participation; IT $201.04 +2.6% is the cleaner institutional name.
- Reversal watch: 312 bullish reversals flagged — WGMI $45.34 (RVOL 3.9) and KN $32.79 lead on volume, but RGNX $8.34 -22.2% and AZTA $33.39 -10.7% are knife-catches, not confirmations yet.
- SIP leaders: HD $335.70 (better Q2, guidance) and LOW $216.03 remain the constructive retail tandem; VEEV $247.95 held a PT raise. ELTK and PONY flashed weak/mixed prints — avoid.
- Most relevant code — ABC (Always Be in Control): With 20SMA breadth down 21pp, tighten stops and shrink size. Pair with CRT (Controlled Risk Taking) — only add on confirmed strength like IT or KURA holding RVOL > 1.0.
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
- Close/trim: Exit extended Technology and Utilities exposure — RSPT (11th percentile) and RSPU (5th percentile) are both falling and offer no bid. Book weak reversal longs like AZTA and RGNX rather than hope.
- Enter on confirmation: If IT $201.04 holds above the round $200 into the bell on rising volume, that’s a valid CRT continuation. KURA over $12.52 with RVOL staying near 1.0 is the speculative add.
- Key level: SPY, QQQ and IWM index data are unavailable today — do not trade off phantom levels. Let breadth be your tell: another leg down in % above 20SMA below 39% means stay defensive into tomorrow.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
- Catalyst watch: Track follow-through in Communication Services (RSPC) and Energy (RSPG) — the only sectors making new percentile highs — plus any retail read-through from HD/LOW.
- Setup forming: IT above $201 stays the lead continuation candidate; KURA reclaiming and holding $12.50+ is the small-cap tell for tomorrow’s open.
- Regime outlook: Today’s -21pp breadth drop changes the plan — treat rallies as suspect until % above 20SMA stabilizes and Sentiment 4% turns off Bearish. Plan defense first, offense only on confirmation.