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Power Hour #90 Neutral

Power Hour #90: Breadth Flush, Steady Trend: The Final-Hour Playbook – Friday 8/21/2026

August 21, 2026 4:49
Episode Summary
A sharp intraday breadth drop triggers a tactical review in the final sixty minutes of trading. The hosts break down what to cut, what to hold, and the one high-volume washout worth watching for a late entry, closing with clear triggers for tomorrow's session.
Key Takeaways
  • 20-day breadth collapsed to 38% as 40-day holds near 52%
  • Health Care, Energy, Materials lead; Utilities and Industrials lag hard
  • HD's strong Q2 lifts LOW; PONY and ELTK fade on weak prints
  • TPL and MATX offer institutional continuation entries into the close
  • OSIS washout on 10.8 RVOL sets a reversal watch above $200
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Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Regime is mixed and sending conflicting signals — the 4% breadth thrust flipped bullish (Bull 4% 189 vs Bear 4% 50), yet the percent above the 20-day SMA collapsed to 38% from 53% yesterday.

  • Breadth is contracting on the short timeframe: % above 20 SMA fell -15pp to 38%, while % above 40 SMA slipped just -1pp to 51.9% — near-term froth is flushing while the intermediate trend holds.
  • Leadership is rotating defensive/hard-asset: Health Care ATR sits at a max 3.57 (100th percentile) and Energy at 3.33 (89th), while Industrials (-0.40, 0th) and Utilities (-2.22, 0th) are getting sold hard.
  • Character today: a two-sided rotation day — momentum leaders firm, but the sharp 20-SMA drop signals internal churn, not a clean trend day.

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

  • Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): NCTY at $5.49, +25.9% on 1.4 RVOL leads the 108-signal Continuation list; among institutional names TPL at $384.86 (+4.1%) and MATX at $224.22 (+3.4%) offer cleaner risk profiles.
  • Strongest reversal setup: OSIS at $198.75 is down -8.9% on a massive 10.8 RVOL — a washout worth watching for a bullish reversal base if it reclaims and holds above $200.
  • SIP leaders: HD reported better Q2 results and guidance (sentiment +2, $334.52), dragging LOW higher (+1 at $217.43); VEEV ($250.70) got a price-target raise. Home-improvement retail is the constructive SIP theme; ELTK (-2, weak Q2) and PONY (-1, mixed Q2) are the fades.
  • Most relevant action code — PLASTICS (Sector Winners): Materials ATR jumped +2.25% today to 1.86 (89th percentile) and Energy holds the 89th — lean into the sector leaders, not the broad tape.

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

  • CLOSE / trim before the bell: Utilities and Industrials exposure — RSPU at -2.22 (-1.67% today) and RSPN at -0.40 are 0th-percentile laggards with falling trends; don’t hold dead weight overnight. Cut PONY and ELTK on their negative SIP prints.
  • ENTER on confirmation: If TPL holds above $384 into the close on institutional sponsorship, it’s a Controlled Risk Taking (CRT) continuation add; MATX above $224 qualifies too. Keep size tight given the shrinking 20-SMA breadth — this is not a chase-everything tape.
  • Key index level — data caveat: SPY, QQQ and IWM technical levels are unavailable in today’s feed, so I won’t guess a number. Trade the internals instead: if % above 20 SMA stabilizes above 38% into the close, the pullback is orderly; a further drop warns of broader distribution tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s Early Look

  • Catalyst watch: With Health Care ATR pinned at its 3.57 max and Energy elevated, watch for follow-through rotation into defensives and crude-linked names; monitor any oil headlines overnight given Energy’s 89th-percentile expansion.
  • Setup forming: OSIS is the marquee reversal candidate — a reclaim of $200 tomorrow after today’s -8.9% high-volume flush would be a Buy-The-Dip (BTFD) trigger; alternatively TPL above $384.86 stays a clean continuation.
  • Regime outlook: The -15pp 20-SMA drop against a still-firm 40 SMA (51.9%) says trim aggressive longs, favor sector leaders (Health Care, Energy, Materials), and demand confirmation before adding. Plan is Always Be in Control (ABC) until short-term breadth repairs.
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