Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
Regime has flipped defensive: breadth cratered today with the % above 20 SMA collapsing from 98% to 42% (-56pp), and the 40 SMA slipping to 54.66% from 60.57% (-5.9pp).
- Breadth contracting hard. Bull 4% fell to 101 from 179 while Bear 4% climbed to 260 from 274-area pressure; the 9M reading (Bull 9 vs Bear 39) confirms broad weakness.
- Leadership rotating to defense/hard assets. Energy (RSPG) is the standout at a 100th-percentile 3.4 and still rising, while Communication Services (RSPC 1.77, 95th pct) holds firm — Technology (RSPT -0.83, falling) is the laggard.
- Character: reversal day. The one-day breadth flush inside a still-positive 40 SMA screams a sharp intraday pullback, not yet a trend break.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
- Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): HTFL at $44.39, +5.8%, RVOL 1.3 (Software) leads the live continuation list; BBNX ($18.75, +6.8%, RVOL 0.9) is the higher-percent mover but on lighter relative volume.
- Strongest reversal setup: PLBL is flushing -8.1% on a massive RVOL 6.4 — a potential washout-and-reclaim candidate; CRSP ($53.01, -2.3%, RVOL 1.5) is the cleaner liquid bullish-reversal watch.
- SIP leaders holding: Home Depot (HD) reported better Q2 results and guidance at $338.13 (RVOL 1.52, +0.93% from open), dragging Lowe’s (LOW $215.81) higher — retail is a pocket of green. Watch ELTK ($9.10, weak Q2, sentiment -2) as the downside example.
- Most relevant action code: ABC (Always Be in Control). With the 20 SMA breadth off 56 points in a day, protecting capital trumps chasing. Secondary: PLASTICS — lean into Energy strength where the tape is actually rewarding buyers.
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
- CLOSE / trim: Tighten or exit weak-momentum tech longs — RSPT is falling and breadth confirms distribution. Names hitting the reversal list on volume (PLBL, QUIK -4.6%) should be cut, not averaged down, unless you have a defined reclaim plan.
- ENTER on confirmation: Only take strength that holds into the bell — HTFL reclaiming $44.39 on rising volume, or an Energy (RSPG) leader continuation. Keep size small under CRT/FFM discipline (≤2.5% risk) given the hostile breadth.
- Key index level: SPY, QQQ and IWM technical levels are (data unavailable) today — do not anchor to a specific print. Trade the breadth: a late-day recovery back above 50% on the 20 SMA would signal dip-buyers returning; a close near 42% keeps the ABC defensive posture into tomorrow.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
- Overnight catalyst: Retail earnings momentum from HD/LOW sets the tone for consumer read-through; watch Energy follow-through given RSPG’s 100th-percentile push and any crude headlines.
- Setup forming: CRSP near $53.01 — a reclaim of today’s high on volume would trigger a reversal-long; HTFL holding above $44.39 stays a continuation watch.
- Regime outlook: Today’s one-day 20 SMA flush changes tomorrow’s plan to defense-first — favor Energy and defensive leaders, keep tech exposure light until the 40 SMA (54.66%) stabilizes or breadth re-expands.
Bottom line: This is a control-the-downside session. Breadth deteriorated sharply, Energy is the only sector in clear command, and the best trades are small, confirmed, and on the strong side of rotation. Protect gains into the close and let tomorrow’s breadth tell you whether the dip was a buy or the start of something deeper.