Power Hour #83 Neutral

Power Hour #83: Breadth Cracks, Energy Leads: The Final Hour Playbook – Tuesday 8/11/2026

August 11, 2026 4:22

Tickers Mentioned

MPC APP AUTL TME FA COR YPF CRCG ACH CCUP

Episode Summary

With sixty minutes left to the close, breadth deteriorates sharply even as indices stay green, prompting a clear-eyed sort of holds versus cuts. The desk keeps MPC as its cleanest continuation trade, drops Financials and Utilities, and sets crude oil and MPC's opening range as the key signals for whether tomorrow stays offensive or turns defensive.

Key Takeaways

Breadth contracting hard: % above 20 SMA fell 71pp to 93%
Energy and Health Care ATR hit 100th percentile leadership
Financials collapse to 0th percentile — rotate out
MPC leads SIP names, +5.7% on price-target raise
Play sector winners but stay in control as breadth thins

Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Regime is still bullish but narrowing — the 4% sentiment reads Bullish while breadth thins under the surface into the final hour.

Breadth contracting: % Above 20 SMA collapsed to 93% from 164% yesterday (-71pp), and % Above 40 SMA slipped to 58.51% from 60.48% (-2.0pp) — participation is thinning even as indices hold.
Leadership rotating defensive-to-cyclical crosscurrent: Health Care ATR leads at 3.24 (100th pct, rising), Energy jumped to 2.07 (100th pct), while Utilities sag at -1.23 and Financials collapsed to 0.72 (0th pct) — a sharp rotation out of financials.
Character: This looks like a rotational, mixed session — leaders extending (Health Care, Energy, Materials 1.78) while Tech (RSPT -0.87) and Staples (0.27, falling) lag.

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): AUTL at $2.36, +14.0% on 2.3 RVOL leads the 113-signal continuation list, though risk is extreme at 218.7% — size tiny. Cleaner: CRCG $10.08 +10.5% (1.0 RVOL) and CCUP $1.76 +11.0% (1.6 RVOL).
Strongest reversal setup: TME at $8.76 tops the 106-signal reversal list, down -11.6% on a heavy 3.4 RVOL — a washout candidate but knife-catching; watch for a base to form before acting. FA at $21.13 (-10.4%, 3.3 RVOL) is a similar high-volume flush.
SIP leaders holding/failing: MPC $320.32 is the standout, +5.73% from open on a price-target raise (RVOL 1.91, near 52w highs) — energy strength confirmed. Failing: APP $339 (-2.39% on BofA downgrade) and ACH $1.40 (gap -38.57%, Citi downgrade) — avoid.
Most relevant action code — PLASTICS (Sector Winners): Energy and Health Care ATR both sit at 100th percentile; MPC‘s move plus the Energy ATR spike (+1.26% today after +4.94% on 8/10) is textbook sector-leader follow-through. Pair with ABC (Always Be in Control) given the breadth thinning.

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

Close/trim before the bell: Exit or tighten anything in Financials (RSPF 0th pct, ATR crushed from 3.12 to 0.72) and Utilities (RSPU -1.23, falling) — momentum has drained. Cut APP-type downgrade names into any bounce; don’t hold GETY ($0.45, guidance withdrawn) or ACH.
Enter on confirmation into the close: MPC above the open is the cleanest continuation — energy leadership plus PT raise. For continuation risk-seekers, CRCG $10.08 and CRCA $14.91 (both +10%+) only if they hold gains into the final print; keep FFM discipline (≤2.5% risk).
Key index level: SPY/QQQ/IWM technical levels are data unavailable today — I won’t guess prices. Trade off breadth instead: with % Above 20 SMA still 93%, dips are buyable, but the -71pp one-day drop is a caution flag — reduce new size if breadth keeps sliding into the close.

Tomorrow’s Early Look

Catalyst watch: Energy remains the tape’s tell — MPC and YPF (mixed Q2, +1.86% from open) put refiners/integrateds in focus; watch crude follow-through overnight to confirm the RSPG surge.
Setup forming: MPC $320.32 — a hold above today’s range sets up continuation toward its 52-week high (currently -2.02% away). Health Care names in the RSPH complex (COR $331.67, +2.0%, INST) are also building.
Regime outlook: Sentiment stays Bullish, but the breadth contraction means tomorrow is a “prove-it” session — if % Above 20 SMA stabilizes, stay long leaders (Energy, Health Care, Materials); if it keeps falling, shift to defense and let TME/FA-style reversals base before buying.

Welcome to wave rider power hour your final hour tactical edge. Let's dive in okay So indices are green but half of yesterday's breath just vanished 60 minutes to the bell what do we hold what do we cut and where's the money going right now? Oh right now It's rotational not a trend day. Mm-hmm. Give me the number honestly percent above the 20 SMA collapse to 93% from 164% yesterday. That's a 71.1 day drop. I mean wait 71 points in a day? In a day and the 40 SMA slipped to 58.51% down from 60.48% Sentiment reads bullish but the internals draining. Oh wow. So the crowds cheering while the exits close You know what that's exactly it noise says bullish structure says caution right okay So if breath is cracking, what do we actually do in the next hour? What are we holding look MPC? It's the cleanest continuation trade left $320.32 up 5.73% off the open RVOL 1.91 sitting near 52 week highs keep it keep it that's your one clean name into the close Yeah, anything else on the hold list? Selectively CRCG at $10.08 and CCUP at $1.76 both up over 10% on reasonable volume But only if the gains hold into the final print sure and if they don't So basically then you're out risk capped at 2.5% no exceptions Now the ugly side what gets cut financials RSPF the ATR got crushed from 3.12 to 0.72 0th percentile momentum's just gone 0th percentile wow and utilities right behind it RSPU at negative 1.23 Stables fading to the defensive trade is over right right so the whole defensive book comes off. Yeah, that's the rotation What about the downgrade names APP and ACH both got hit don't catch them and GETY at 45 cents pulled its guidance So exit that now oh man just gone just gone don't hold something that withdrew its own guidance Fair anything worth entering late here's a thing one name extreme caution RUTL $2.36 up 14% but here's the thing the risk sits at 218.7% Whoa 218 218 so tiny size or skip it entirely it's sprinting on a frayed rope Yeah, totally love that and these reversal names people keep asking about I mean TME FA don't touch them until a base warms right now That's knife catching not a setup Okay, so energy and health care are running today. Does that carry into tomorrow? That's the tell Energy RSPG up 1.26% today after a 4.94% surge yesterday watch the overnight crude action Crudes the signal crudes the signal and health care the RSPH complex building strength right alongside it exactly What confirms mpc tomorrow it sits just 2.02% from its 52 week high holds above today's range at the open Continuations on right and what flips the script breath if that 93% stabilizes leaders stay in play another leg down The whole desk goes defensive So basically tomorrow's a prove it session prove it the market has to show its work not just turn in the bullish answer Yeah, anything else on the radar YPF mixed Q2 but up 1.86% off the open watch for follow through there too Mm-hmm. Okay. Give me the one line wrap breath cracked hard cut financials and utilities Hold mpc into strength and let energies overnight action decide of tomorrow stays offensive or turns defensive That's clean. So the homework tonight crude and mpc's open those two watch crude overnight and c's level at the open that's your regime signal that's the hour see you at the bell tomorrow That's all for today's episode of wave rider power hour your final hour tactical edge see you next time

Chapters

Regime Check

Closing Playbook

Tomorrow's Setup

Next Day Prep #300 Neutral

Try WaveFinder

Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

Tomorrow’s Early Look

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