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Power Hour #82 Bearish

Power Hour #82: Power Hour: Breadth Breaks, Bears Take Control – Monday 8/10/2026

August 10, 2026 4:38
Episode Summary
A sharp reversal day sends breadth tumbling and bears past bulls for the first time, forcing a defensive final-hour playbook. The analyst walks through what to hold, what to cut, and why chasing a 23% spike in BSP is a trap — plus the oil and inverse-ETF signals shaping tomorrow's Controlled Risk Taking regime.
Key Takeaways
  • Breadth collapsed: percent above 20 SMA fell 103 points to 137%
  • Bull 4% cratered to 190 as Bear 4% climbed to 194
  • Energy and Materials rotate up while Utilities and Tech fade
  • TTD gapped down 27% and INTC hit by $15B offering
  • Tighten stops: inverse ETFs QID and PSQ surfacing signals caution
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Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Breadth is contracting hard into the afternoon — the tape has cooled from the morning’s momentum, and internals confirm a defensive tilt.

  • Breadth contracting: % Above 20 SMA collapsed to 137% from 240% yesterday (-103pp); % Above 40 SMA slid to 57.22% from 64.66% (-7.4pp).
  • Bull/Bear flip: Bull 4% cratered to 190 from 454 while Bear 4% climbed to 194 from 143 — bears now edge bulls, Sentiment 4% Neutral but 40SMA still Bearish.
  • Character: This is a rotation/reversal day — Energy (RSPG +4.63%) and Materials (RSPM at 100th percentile) firm up while Utilities (RSPU -1.55, 0th percentile) and Tech breadth bleed out.

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

  • Strongest continuation: BSP $54.68 +23.0% on RVOL 2.1 leads the board, but Risk reads a nosebleed 249.9% — too extended to chase. Cleaner: FET $78.80 +6.2% (Energy) and CNR $93.53 +4.4% riding the energy bid.
  • Strongest reversal: ELAN $22.49 +1.7% on RVOL 2.4 is the top reversal-bullish print; watch for it to hold above the intraday base. B $40.83 (RVOL 2.1) is reversing but still -6.5% — needs a green close to confirm.
  • SIP tape mixed: Winners holding — UBER $75 +5.29% from open (Jefferies PT raise, RVOL 1.72), KRMN $58.35 +3.58%. Losers failing — TTD $13.80 gapped -26.99% on downgrades, INTC $101.65 hit by a proposed $15B stock offering, ACH -8.77% on weak Q2.
  • Most relevant action code: ABC (Always Be in Control) — with QID $14.01 and PSQ $25.58 (inverse-Nasdaq ETFs) surfacing on the reversal-bullish list, the tape is telling you to tighten stops, not press longs.

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

  • CLOSE / trim: Anything tied to the fading names — TTD and INTC are broken today (guidance/dilution). Extended parabolic BSP (Risk 249.9%) should be booked, not held overnight — never marry a 23% one-day spike.
  • ENTER on confirmation: The Energy/Materials rotation is the cleanest theme — FET, CNR and USO strength ($118.04, +0.31% from open) support it. Only add if they hold their highs into the last 15 minutes on rising volume (2LYNCH continuation); skip if they roll over.
  • Key level caveat: SPY/QQQ/IWM index levels are data unavailable today — I won’t guess price triggers. Use breadth as your gauge: with % Above 20 SMA down 103pp, treat rallies as sell-into-strength until Bull 4% reclaims Bear 4%.

Tomorrow’s Early Look

  • Overnight catalyst: Energy is the swing factor — oil firm on the supply “impasse” (USO $118.04). Watch crude and any follow-through in RSPG, which spiked +4.63% today from a middling base.
  • Setup forming: UBER $75 is the strongest clean momentum name — a hold above today’s range with the Jefferies upgrade tailwind sets up a continuation entry. ELAN $22.49 is a reversal-watch if it closes green.
  • Regime outlook: Today’s breadth flush changes the plan — reduce size and demand confirmation. Until the 40 SMA stabilizes above 60% and Bull 4% retakes the lead, favor CRT (Controlled Risk Taking) over aggressive breakouts.

Bottom line: Momentum narrowed fast, defensives and inverse ETFs are perking up, and leadership rotated into Energy and Materials. Protect gains, keep risk small, and let tomorrow’s tape prove itself before you re-engage.

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