Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
Breadth is firmly risk-on into the final hour — the 4% sentiment reads Very Bullish even as the 40SMA sentiment sits Neutral, a classic short-term surge inside a still-maturing trend.
- Breadth expanding hard: % Above 20 SMA jumped to 196% from 139% yesterday (+57pp), and Bull 4% swelled to 324 vs Bear 4% at just 107 — a total flip from yesterday’s near-even 257/279.
- Leadership rotating to cyclicals: Materials (RSPM) hit a 100th percentile reading at 1.79 and Industrials (RSPN) sit at 1.55 (84th pct, rising), while Utilities (RSPU) lag at -0.74 and Tech (RSPT) remains negative at -0.85.
- Character: trending-up day with broadening participation — not a choppy reversal tape. Index levels for SPY/QQQ/IWM are (data unavailable), so lean on breadth and sector rotation, not chart levels.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
- Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): AVAV +8.4% leads the 128-signal continuation list, though risk flags at 151.2%; cleaner is CBRS $224.77 (+6.4%) in Chips and ASTS $70.91 (+5.3%) in Telecom — both riding the aerospace/space theme.
- Strongest reversal setup: OFIX $10.33 tops the 168-name reversal list on 3.5 RVOL; watch inverse-miner unwinds GDXD (-18.4%) and JDST (-12.4%) as gold turns — a tell that risk appetite is rising.
- SIP leaders holding: DKNG $22.17 is up +3.74% from open on 2.14 RVOL after a beat (EPS +144.9%); SPCX $114.92 is +7.41% from open post-upgrade. VIAV $40.59 is the fade — down despite strong results, guidance-driven.
- Most relevant action code: PLASTICS (Sector Winners) — chase Materials/Industrials strength — paired with ABC (Always Be in Control) given elevated single-name risk percentages.
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
- CLOSE / trim: Exit names showing the “up despite” or “down despite” divergence — VIAV (down on good results) and heavy-short SPB ($88.22, -3.05% from open) are giving-back candidates into the bell.
- ENTER on confirm: If it holds green in the last 30 minutes, DKNG above ~$22 on 2x volume is a clean episodic-pivot continuation; CBRS holding $224+ keeps the chip breakout intact.
- Key level caveat: With SPY/QQQ/IWM data unavailable, gauge tomorrow off breadth — a close with % Above 20 SMA holding near today’s 196% confirms the thrust; a sharp fade back toward yesterday’s 139% would warn the surge was one-day noise.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
- Catalyst watch: Earnings reactions dominate — DKNG, AHR (raised guidance, +390% EPS), and SPB already reported; monitor follow-through and any overnight economic prints since no index technicals are posted.
- Setup forming: ASTS $70.91 and SPCX $114.92 anchor the space/telecom theme — a hold of today’s highs sets a continuation trigger for tomorrow’s open.
- Regime outlook: Rotation into Materials (100th pct) and Industrials plus collapsing bear counts argues for staying long cyclicals — but Neutral 40SMA sentiment means keep size disciplined; don’t assume the thrust is permanent.