Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
Regime stays constructive into the close — Sentiment 4% reads Very Bullish and the 40SMA sentiment is Bullish, but the fresh-signal engine is cooling.
- Breadth contracting on the margin: Bull 4% slipped to 414 from 544 yesterday, while Bear 4% eased to 71 from 77 — fewer new breakouts, but no bearish surge.
- Participation still deep: % Above 40 SMA improved to 64.54% vs 61.29% (+3.3pp), and % Above 20 SMA printed 151% vs 66% (+85pp) — treat that spike cautiously, but the direction is up.
- Character: Rotational grind, not a reversal day. Leadership is shifting under the surface toward cyclicals — Industrials and Materials, away from Utilities.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
- Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): CHTR $151.15, +4.9% leads the tape, though RVOL is light at 0.5 — confirm volume before chasing. EXPE $308.75, +3.6% (RVOL 0.9, ATR%-M 5.5) is the cleaner move with real participation.
- Reversal setup: JAZZ $261.50, +3.9% on RVOL 3.4 is the standout bullish reversal with institutional backing. On the flip side, TKR $132.73, -6.4% and RYZ $26.49, -5.8% flag metals weakness — reversal-bullish tags there are catching knives.
- SIP leaders holding: MDA $32.21 is up +5.71% from open on a $474M contract; LUNR $13.10 is +7.11% from open on a spacecraft award — space/defense names carrying momentum. Earnings beats HRMY $35.60 and WLK $69.93 are quieter but green.
- Action code of the day — PLASTICS (Sector Winners): Industrials RSPN hit 2.15 (100th percentile, +1.82% today) and Materials RSPM 1.23 (100th percentile, rising). Lean into cyclical leaders, fade Utilities (RSPU -0.77, 0th percentile).
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
- Trim / close: Metals exposure — TKR (-6.4%) and RYZ (-5.8%) are breaking down on rising volume; don’t hold hoping for the reversal tag to save you. Utilities longs into RSPU’s 0th-percentile reading should be lightened.
- Enter on confirmation: EXPE $308.75 if it holds green into the bell — best combo of strength (+3.6%), volume (RVOL 0.9) and volatility (ATR%-M 5.5). Momentum add: MDA or LUNR only on a tight late-day base, not the vertical spike.
- Key level caveat: SPY, QQQ and IWM price/SMA data are unavailable today — I can’t cite specific index levels or the 20-day range. Trade the individual names and sector tape, and size down without an index roadmap.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
- Catalyst watch: Post-close earnings reactions from today’s beats (HRMY, WLK) and defense/space contract flow (MDA, LUNR) will set the morning tone; watch whether Industrials/Materials leadership follows through.
- Setup forming: EXPE above $308.75 as a continuation trigger, and JAZZ above $261.50 if it closes strong — both need volume confirmation at the open.
- Regime outlook: Sentiment is still Very Bullish but new-breakout counts are fading (Bull 4% 544→414). Plan for a stock-picker’s tape tomorrow — rotate into cyclical winners, keep risk tight, and demand RVOL before committing.