Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
Regime is deteriorating fast intraday — breadth has collapsed under the surface even as mega-cap tech masks the damage.
- Breadth is contracting hard: % Above 20 SMA cratered to 35% from 61% yesterday (-26pp), while Bull 4% signals fell from 398 to just 90 and Bear 4% climbed to 122. Sentiment reads Bearish on both the 4% and 40SMA gauges.
- Leadership is narrowing, not rotating: Consumer Discretionary (RSPD) sits at the 95th percentile and Energy (RSPG) rose to 1.24, but Technology (RSPT) is negative at -1.18 and Utilities (RSPU) sank to the 5th percentile — defensive money is not stepping up.
- Character = narrow reversal day: A handful of names like GOOGL are carrying the tape while 290 reversal-bullish signals flash beneath it — classic index-strength-masking-internal-weakness action.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
- Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): GOOG/GOOGL are the standouts, both up +6.5% near $355 on RVOL 1.2/1.1 with 5K institutional footprints; leveraged proxy GGLL is up +13.2% at $109.89. This is where the flow is concentrated.
- Strongest reversal setup: The reversal screen is dominated by red — MSTY at $12.41 on massive RVOL 9.7, plus FLGT -15%, COIN -8.2% ($150.18), and ALHC -15.2%. These are washout candidates, not confirmed longs yet — wait for a reclaim.
- SIP leaders holding: COHU gapped +9.2% and is holding at $46.45 (change-from-open +8.1%) on a Q2 beat; SPXC is green at $199.12 after raising FY26; CCJ firm at $88.18 on raised sales guidance. SIP laggards failing: TBBK -4.5% at $64.78 (lowered Q4 EPS) and PRM fading despite a green print.
- Most relevant action code — ABC (Always Be in Control): With breadth down 26pp in a session, capital preservation trumps aggression. Secondary is PLASTICS — if you must be long, stay in the winning pockets (Discretionary, Energy, mega-cap internet), not the broad tape.
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
- Close/trim into the bell: Anything tied to the failing internals — TBBK (guidance cut), PRM (worse-than-expected Q2), and high-risk reversal names like COIN and FLGT. With 20SMA breadth at 35%, resist averaging down into red RVOL spikes.
- Enter only on confirmation: GOOGL/GOOG continuation is the cleanest — if it holds above $355 into the last 30 minutes on sustained volume, that’s a 2LYNCH add. COHU holding its gap above $46 is a secondary momentum name; demand a strong close, not a fade.
- Key level caveat: SPY/QQQ/IWM index prices are (data unavailable) today, so I can’t cite specific SMA or range levels — trade off individual stock structure and breadth, not an assumed index line. Given collapsing participation, treat strength as suspect until breadth stabilizes.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
- Overnight catalyst: Watch follow-through on today’s mega-cap internet move (GOOGL +6.5%) and whether the earnings-reaction tape (COHU, SPXC, CCJ beats vs. TBBK, PRM misses) sets a risk-on or risk-off tone for the open.
- Setup forming: COHU above its $46.45 gap is the momentum name to stalk; a hold overnight sets up a continuation entry. On the short side, TBBK below $64.78 stays weak if guidance fears linger.
- Regime outlook: A -26pp single-day drop in 20SMA breadth is a warning — until it recovers, keep size small and lean on ABC/CRT. Today’s narrow leadership means tomorrow’s plan is defensive-first: let breadth confirm before pressing longs.