Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
Regime is mixed-to-defensive: short-term breadth is improving but the intermediate trend is decaying, and index levels are unavailable (SPY, QQQ, IWM all show data unavailable today).
- Breadth split: % above 20 SMA jumped to 40% from 24% (+16pp) — a short-term bounce — but % above 40 SMA sank to 52.14% from 60.5% (-8.4pp), signaling underlying deterioration.
- Sector rotation: Energy (RSPG) leads at +1.85, 100th percentile, rising, while Financials (RSPF) collapsed to 1.16, 0th percentile and Technology (RSPT) sits weak at -0.74. Money is rotating out of growth into energy.
- Character: Sentiment reads Bearish on both 4% and 40SMA gauges (Bull 4%: 78 vs Bear 4%: 266) — a choppy, defensive tape masking a narrow short-term rebound.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
- Continuation (2LYNCH): SKYQ leads the tape at $5.71, +38.3%, RVOL 1.2 (Energy) — explosive but high 130.7% risk; cleaner is LH at $291.22, +3.5%, RVOL 1.9 with institutional backing.
- Reversal: FSBC prints the standout at $46.59, RVOL 21.5 (Banks) — watch for a reclaim; REGN at $649.83 holds firm with institutions present.
- SIP leaders: SLG is the bullish standout — $50.12 on raised FY26 FFO guidance; laggards GL ($183.90, mixed results) and FCFS ($208.74, -1.65% from open) are failing on earnings.
- Action code — PLASTICS: Energy’s 100th-percentile leadership plus SKYQ‘s move makes riding sector winners the play; pair with FFM only on names under 2.5% risk (LH-quality setups, not SKYQ).
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
- CLOSE / trim: Earnings failures — GL and FCFS are both red from the open on mixed results; exit weak Financials into the bell given RSPF’s drop to 0th percentile.
- ENTER on confirmation: LH ($291.22) holding gains into the close with RVOL 1.9 is the cleanest continuation add; SLG ($50.12) on a guidance-raise reversal for a swing.
- Key level: SPY level is data unavailable — do not trade off an index number today. Lean on breadth: another day of % above 40 SMA falling below 50% flips the intermediate trend clearly bearish.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
- Catalyst: Earnings season churn continues — insurance and financials (GL, TRV, FCFS) are reacting today; watch for follow-through reads tomorrow morning.
- Setup forming: Energy momentum via RSPG — SKYQ ($5.71) needs to hold above today’s range; a tighter, lower-risk energy name is preferable given 130.7% risk on SKYQ.
- Regime outlook: The 20/40 SMA divergence is the tell — if short-term breadth (40%) keeps climbing while 40 SMA stabilizes, treat as a tradable bounce; if 40 SMA keeps sliding, stay defensive and keep size small.