Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
The market regime remains Very Bullish with Sentiment at 4% and a Bull/Bear ratio of 312 to 125, though breadth is contracting slightly as % Above 20 SMA dropped to 121% from yesterday’s 122%.
- Breadth direction is contracting as % Above 40 SMA fell 6.0 percentage points to 50.18%, indicating a cooling in intermediate-term momentum.
- Leading sectors are rotating into Technology (RSPT ATR 5.12, rising trend) and Communication Services (RSPC 0.44), while Utilities (RSPU -2.4) hit a new low.
- Today’s character is a trending day with extreme bullish sentiment, despite a slight pullback in the percentage of stocks holding above their 40-day moving average.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
- Strongest continuation signal is CDNS at $409.22, up 9.2% with 2.2 RVOL, signaling a massive institutional breakout in Software.
- Strongest reversal setup appears in NEAR at $50.57, showing a -0.5% drop with 3.9 RVOL as a potential liquidity grab in the ETF space.
- SIP leaders like DELL ($420.91, +31.84 gap) and SAIC ($104.20) are holding gains after better-than-expected Q1 results and new product announcements.
- Relevant action code is 2LYNCH (Continuation Breakout) given the extreme bullish breadth and CDNS leading the charge with high relative volume.
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
- CLOSE any short positions in Technology or Communication Services if they are still open, as the 4% Sentiment reading suggests a squeeze risk.
- ENTER a partial position in CDNS if it holds above $405 into the close, targeting a continuation of the 9.2% move tomorrow.
- Key level watch: With SPY data unavailable, monitor if Technology ATR remains above 5.0; a drop below 4.0 would signal a failed breakout.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
- Overnight catalyst to watch: Earnings follow-through for SAIC and EWTX, which reported revenue and business sales news today.
- Setup forming: DELL needs to hold the $415 support level to confirm the new XPS 13 product launch as a sustained trend.
- Regime outlook: If the 40 SMA breadth stays below 52% tomorrow, expect a rotation out of Tech into Consumer Discretionary (RSPD 0.34).