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Power Hour #42 Bearish

Power Hour #42: Market Crash: Sentiment at 4% and the Only Survivor – Monday 5/18/2026

May 18, 2026 3:52
Episode Summary
The market regime has violently flipped to 'Very Bearish' with sentiment crashing to 4% and breadth collapsing to 27%. Host and Analyst discuss the immediate need to cut Consumer Discretionary, hold Energy as the sole survivor, and wait for specific breadth recovery signals before re-entering.
Key Takeaways
  • Sentiment dropped to 4% Very Bearish with sharp breadth contraction.
  • Stocks above 20-day SMA plummeted from 56% to 27% today.
  • Energy sector leads with 1.58% gain while Discretionary falls 1.93%.
  • OIH and FANG show strongest continuation signals in the Energy sector.
  • Defensive rotation into Staples and Energy confirms risk-off regime.
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Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

The market regime has shifted sharply to Very Bearish with sentiment at 4% and breadth contracting significantly since the open.

  • Breadth is deteriorating rapidly as the percentage of stocks above the 20-day SMA collapsed from 56% yesterday to just 27% today.
  • While the 40-day SMA participation ticked up slightly to 48.85%, the overwhelming majority of the market is trading below key short-term moving averages.
  • Today’s character is a reversal day where defensive rotation is occurring, with Energy rising 1.58% while Consumer Discretionary falls -1.93%.

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

  • The strongest continuation signal is OIH trading at $452.20 with a 2.6% gain and 1.1 RVOL, confirming the Energy sector leadership.
  • A notable reversal setup appears in LPTH at $12.15, up 5.5% with 1.6 RVOL, signaling potential capitulation exhaustion in Electronics.
  • SIP leaders show mixed signals: BSX holds at $52.68 on buyback news, while ONTO at $271.77 faces pressure from convertible notes.
  • The most relevant action code is PLASTICS (Sector Winners) as Energy and Consumer Staples are the only sectors showing positive relative strength.

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

  • Close any remaining long positions in Consumer Discretionary stocks as the sector hits a new low at -1.93% relative to the 20-day range.
  • Enter a small position in FANG at $206.60 if it holds above the open, as it leads the Energy sector with a 1.5% gain.
  • Monitor SPY closely; with data unavailable for specific SMA levels, watch for a break below the previous day’s close to confirm further downside.

Tomorrow’s Early Look

  • Watch for overnight oil inventory data as Energy is the only sector with a rising trend at 1.58% today.
  • A potential setup is forming for HTGC at $15.47, which is showing reversal strength despite a -0.4% intraday move.
  • The regime outlook remains bearish unless the percentage of stocks above the 20-day SMA can recover from the current 27% low.
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