Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
The market regime has shifted sharply to Very Bearish with sentiment at 4% and breadth contracting significantly since the open.
- Breadth is deteriorating rapidly as the percentage of stocks above the 20-day SMA collapsed from 56% yesterday to just 27% today.
- While the 40-day SMA participation ticked up slightly to 48.85%, the overwhelming majority of the market is trading below key short-term moving averages.
- Today’s character is a reversal day where defensive rotation is occurring, with Energy rising 1.58% while Consumer Discretionary falls -1.93%.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
- The strongest continuation signal is OIH trading at $452.20 with a 2.6% gain and 1.1 RVOL, confirming the Energy sector leadership.
- A notable reversal setup appears in LPTH at $12.15, up 5.5% with 1.6 RVOL, signaling potential capitulation exhaustion in Electronics.
- SIP leaders show mixed signals: BSX holds at $52.68 on buyback news, while ONTO at $271.77 faces pressure from convertible notes.
- The most relevant action code is PLASTICS (Sector Winners) as Energy and Consumer Staples are the only sectors showing positive relative strength.
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
- Close any remaining long positions in Consumer Discretionary stocks as the sector hits a new low at -1.93% relative to the 20-day range.
- Enter a small position in FANG at $206.60 if it holds above the open, as it leads the Energy sector with a 1.5% gain.
- Monitor SPY closely; with data unavailable for specific SMA levels, watch for a break below the previous day’s close to confirm further downside.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
- Watch for overnight oil inventory data as Energy is the only sector with a rising trend at 1.58% today.
- A potential setup is forming for HTGC at $15.47, which is showing reversal strength despite a -0.4% intraday move.
- The regime outlook remains bearish unless the percentage of stocks above the 20-day SMA can recover from the current 27% low.