Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
Market breadth has sharply contracted from yesterday’s stronger reading: % above 20 SMA fell 14.0pp to 58% (vs. 72% yesterday), and % above 40 SMA dropped 1.5pp to 69.15%, confirming a shift to neutral sentiment (4% bullish vs. 4% yesterday’s 4% — stable but weakening).
- Technology sector ATR hit 3.25 — highest of all sectors, at 100th percentile — indicating strong upward momentum in chips/software.
- Financials (RSPF) ATR rose to 2.24 (95th percentile), while Energy (RSPG) ATR rebounded to 0.04 (32nd percentile), but Utilities (RSPU) fell to -1.09 — lowest in 9M — signaling sector rotation.
- Today’s character: mixed breadth, selective strength — strong performers in Tech/Medical, lagging in Energy/Utilities and broad market consolidation after pre-close rally.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
- Strongest continuation signal: AVGO at $420.15 (+4.5%), RVOL 1.0, ATR%M 8.2 — top Momentum play with institutional accumulation (5K).
- Strongest reversal setup: JBIO at $25.42 (+10.4%), ATR%M 10.8, Risk 97.6% — high-risk, high-reward small-cap biotech breakout (SIP confirmed earlier).
- SIP leaders: CALX opened lower (-13.4% at $42.93) post-Q1 earnings, BBY dropped -4.2% ($63.78) on CEO news — both showing reversal behavior; OTIS raised guidance but traded down (-0.5%) — mixed signals.
- Action code: 2LYNCH — continuation breakouts in chips (AVGO), biotech (JBIO), and software (MSFT +1.6% at $430.88, RVOL 0.7) support a trend-following approach.
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
- CLOSE any short positions in Tech or Medical sectors (e.g., CALX, MGRC) — both show continued bearish SIPs, but reversal attempts are failing.
- ENTER on confirmation for AVGO above $421.50 or JBIO above $26.00 — breakout setups with strong RVOL and institutional interest.
- SPY is not quoted today — no SMA20/SMA50/SMA200 levels available. Monitor QQQ and IWM for indirect support/resistance — QQQ holds above 200-day if SPY is unavailable.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
- Overnight catalyst: Fed Speaker appearances and March PCE data released April 23 morning — watch for inflation clarity.
- Setup forming: MSTZ at $5.46 (-16.9%) in Reversal Bullish list — watch for gap fill or VCP re-entry if volume surges above 1.9M avg.
- Regime outlook: neutral-to-bullish** — today’s narrowing breadth but strong top-tier sector ATR suggests a rotational recovery, favoring selective continuation over broad-market moves.