Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
Breadth is quietly expanding into the final hour — this is an improving tape, not a breakdown, with both internals green day-over-day.
- Breadth expanding: % above 40 SMA climbed to 28.1% from 24.86% (+3.2pp), and % above 20 SMA rose to 21% from 19% (+2.0pp). Participation is widening.
- Bull/bear flip: Bull 4% now 122 vs Bear 4% 93 — a healthy ratio versus yesterday’s ugly 177 bull / 290 bear. The 4% and 40SMA sentiment gauges both read Bullish.
- Character: Health Care is leading the rotation — RSPH jumped +1.79% on the day to 1.61 (68th percentile). This looks like a constructive, selective trend day rather than a chop-fest.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
- Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): MRNX is ripping +23.1% at $177.26 on RVOL 1.5 — the clear momentum leader. Behind it, INTR +5.3% (RVOL 1.3) and FFIV +4.1% at $480.58 are institutional-flagged follow-through names.
- Medical muscle: ELV +3.6% at $415.38 (RVOL 1.2, INST) and NTAP +2.6% ($237.15) confirm the Health Care / Computer leadership showing in the continuation scan.
- Reversal setup: QVCG is the standout bounce — +1.0% at $12.93 on a huge RVOL 3.7. Volume confirmation matters here; most other reversal names (CD -17.1%, ALHC -13.0%) are still falling knives, not entries.
- SIP leaders holding: Software upgrades are stacking — OKTA ($220.21, PT raised to 245), SAIL +2.98% from open, and RDDT ($156.51) all carry bullish analyst catalysts. LBRX drew a fresh Buy initiation at $34.61.
- Action codes in play: 2LYNCH (continuation breakout) fits MRNX and FFIV; PLASTICS (sector winners) fits the Health Care rotation led by RSPH’s +1.79% surge.
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
- Trim the breakdowns: If you hold anything mapping to the deep reversal names — CD (-17.1%, risk 275%), ALHC (-13.0%, risk 197.7%) or AVNT (-6.4%) — do not average down into the bell. These are high-risk and have not confirmed a turn; let them prove themselves tomorrow.
- Enter on confirmation: If MRNX holds its gains into the close it earns a continuation entry; FFIV above $480 and ELV holding $415 are cleaner, lower-beta institutional follow-throughs. Keep size disciplined — these are ATR-heavy (FFIV ATR 5.3%).
- Index levels: SPY, QQQ and IWM technical levels are (data unavailable) today — so lean on breadth, not price. With % above 40 SMA reclaiming 28%, the signal is improving participation; treat a close that keeps breadth green as a green light to carry longs overnight.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
- Catalyst watch: Software sentiment is building — OKTA‘s raise to 245 and SAIL‘s target bump suggest security-software names could gap-follow tomorrow. Watch for pre-market analyst continuation in that group.
- Setup forming: OKTA at $220.21 with a Street target of $245 offers room; a hold above $220 sets up a continuation move. QVCG‘s 3.7 RVOL bounce off $12.93 is the reversal to track if it builds.
- Regime outlook: Today’s +3.2pp breadth gain and the bull/bear flip to 122/93 argue the plan tilts constructive — but with only 28% of names above their 40 SMA, this is still a selective market. Trade leaders, respect risk, and let breadth keep confirming before you press size.